{"id":146591,"date":"2023-08-28T17:14:09","date_gmt":"2023-08-28T17:14:09","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/focus.s.nomatter.dev\/es\/?p=146591"},"modified":"2023-09-28T17:23:25","modified_gmt":"2023-09-28T17:23:25","slug":"nuestras-principales-previsiones-de-consenso-para-las-tres-proximas-decadas","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/focus.s.nomatter.dev\/es\/blog\/nuestras-principales-previsiones-de-consenso-para-las-tres-proximas-decadas\/","title":{"rendered":"Nuestras principales previsiones de consenso para las tres pr\u00f3ximas d\u00e9cadas"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><strong>China para convertirse en la mayor econom\u00eda del mundo:<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>En 2022, la econom\u00eda estadounidense segu\u00eda siendo un 42% mayor que la china en t\u00e9rminos de PIB nominal. Nuestros panelistas esperan que China reduzca gradualmente esa diferencia durante la pr\u00f3xima d\u00e9cada, antes de superar a EE.UU. en 2034. Para 2050, se prev\u00e9 que la econom\u00eda de China sea un 20% mayor que la de EE.UU. Pero los riesgos parecen sesgados a la baja para China. El impulso de la reforma econ\u00f3mica ha deca\u00eddo en los \u00faltimos a\u00f1os, la poblaci\u00f3n disminuye y envejece, el sector inmobiliario est\u00e1 sobrecargado de deudas y Occidente impone restricciones comerciales y tecnol\u00f3gicas cada vez m\u00e1s duras. Preocupantemente, en los \u00faltimos meses la econom\u00eda china ha superado sistem\u00e1ticamente las expectativas del mercado, viendo s\u00f3lo un impulso fugaz por la eliminaci\u00f3n de las restricciones de Covid-19.<\/p>\n<p><strong>El auge de la India:<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>La India se convertir\u00e1 en la tercera mayor econom\u00eda del mundo en 2050, seg\u00fan nuestros expertos, con un PIB nominal de 38.000 millones de euros, m\u00e1s del triple que Indonesia, la siguiente mayor econom\u00eda. Los principales puntos fuertes de la econom\u00eda india ser\u00e1n su favorable demograf\u00eda, las reformas en curso favorables a las empresas y las cordiales relaciones con Occidente y China. Sin embargo, el pa\u00eds sigue encontrando obst\u00e1culos a su desarrollo econ\u00f3mico. El sistema educativo es deficiente en comparaci\u00f3n con otras naciones asi\u00e1ticas emergentes. El proteccionismo podr\u00eda perjudicar al comercio; en los \u00faltimos a\u00f1os, el gobierno se ha negado a participar en los nuevos acuerdos comerciales CPTPP y RCEP, por ejemplo. Y las disputas fronterizas con Pakist\u00e1n y China podr\u00edan intensificarse.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Aumento de Asia Oriental:<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Nuestro Consenso prev\u00e9 que los PIB nominales de Indonesia, Filipinas y Vietnam sean unas 10 veces mayores en 2050 que en la actualidad, gracias al panorama pol\u00edtico relativamente estable de la regi\u00f3n, su proximidad a China e India y su atractivo como base para la inversi\u00f3n manufacturera mundial. En cambio, las principales econom\u00edas emergentes de \u00c1frica, Am\u00e9rica Latina y Europa experimentar\u00e1n un progreso m\u00e1s modesto. Por ejemplo, la econom\u00eda argentina es actualmente una vez y media mayor que las de Vietnam y Filipinas; en 2050, las dos naciones del este asi\u00e1tico tendr\u00e1n cada una una producci\u00f3n econ\u00f3mica superior al doble de la argentina.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>En nuestro \u00faltimo bolet\u00edn, analizamos las perspectivas a largo plazo de las principales econom\u00edas hasta 2050. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":7,"featured_media":146043,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"editor_notices":[],"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-146591","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v26.9) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Nuestras principales previsiones de consenso para las tres pr\u00f3ximas d\u00e9cadas - FocusEconomics [ES]<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"En nuestro \u00faltimo bolet\u00edn, analizamos las perspectivas a largo plazo de las principales econom\u00edas hasta 2050.\" class=\"yoast-seo-meta-tag\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, nofollow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"es_ES\" class=\"yoast-seo-meta-tag\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" class=\"yoast-seo-meta-tag\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Nuestras principales previsiones de consenso para las tres pr\u00f3ximas d\u00e9cadas\" class=\"yoast-seo-meta-tag\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"En nuestro \u00faltimo bolet\u00edn, analizamos las perspectivas a largo plazo de las principales econom\u00edas hasta 2050.\" class=\"yoast-seo-meta-tag\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/focus.s.nomatter.dev\/es\/blog\/nuestras-principales-previsiones-de-consenso-para-las-tres-proximas-decadas\/\" class=\"yoast-seo-meta-tag\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"FocusEconomics [ES]\" class=\"yoast-seo-meta-tag\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/FocusEconomics\" class=\"yoast-seo-meta-tag\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2023-08-28T17:14:09+00:00\" class=\"yoast-seo-meta-tag\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2023-09-28T17:23:25+00:00\" class=\"yoast-seo-meta-tag\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/focus.nm-img.net\/uploads\/sites\/5\/2023\/09\/ltam.png\" class=\"yoast-seo-meta-tag\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"788\" class=\"yoast-seo-meta-tag\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"162\" class=\"yoast-seo-meta-tag\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/png\" class=\"yoast-seo-meta-tag\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Sibel A\u011flamaz\" class=\"yoast-seo-meta-tag\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" class=\"yoast-seo-meta-tag\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:creator\" content=\"@FocusEconomics\" class=\"yoast-seo-meta-tag\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@FocusEconomics\" class=\"yoast-seo-meta-tag\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Escrito por\" class=\"yoast-seo-meta-tag\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Sibel A\u011flamaz\" class=\"yoast-seo-meta-tag\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Tiempo de lectura\" class=\"yoast-seo-meta-tag\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"2 minutos\" class=\"yoast-seo-meta-tag\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/focus.s.nomatter.dev\/es\/blog\/nuestras-principales-previsiones-de-consenso-para-las-tres-proximas-decadas\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/focus.s.nomatter.dev\/es\/blog\/nuestras-principales-previsiones-de-consenso-para-las-tres-proximas-decadas\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Sibel A\u011flamaz\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/focus.s.nomatter.dev\/es\/#\/schema\/person\/74ccc4de3a3df5da86a5bd7d82f542bc\"},\"headline\":\"Nuestras principales previsiones de consenso para las tres pr\u00f3ximas d\u00e9cadas\",\"datePublished\":\"2023-08-28T17:14:09+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2023-09-28T17:23:25+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/focus.s.nomatter.dev\/es\/blog\/nuestras-principales-previsiones-de-consenso-para-las-tres-proximas-decadas\/\"},\"wordCount\":420,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/focus.s.nomatter.dev\/es\/#organization\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/focus.s.nomatter.dev\/es\/blog\/nuestras-principales-previsiones-de-consenso-para-las-tres-proximas-decadas\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\/\/focus-stg.nm-img.net\/uploads\/sites\/5\/2023\/09\/ltam.png\",\"articleSection\":[\"Uncategorized\"],\"inLanguage\":\"es\"},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/focus.s.nomatter.dev\/es\/blog\/nuestras-principales-previsiones-de-consenso-para-las-tres-proximas-decadas\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/focus.s.nomatter.dev\/es\/blog\/nuestras-principales-previsiones-de-consenso-para-las-tres-proximas-decadas\/\",\"name\":\"Nuestras principales previsiones de consenso para las tres pr\u00f3ximas d\u00e9cadas - 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