{"id":148494,"date":"2024-01-11T13:10:19","date_gmt":"2024-01-11T13:10:19","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/focus.s.nomatter.dev\/es\/?p=148494"},"modified":"2025-02-12T10:09:50","modified_gmt":"2025-02-12T10:09:50","slug":"nuestras-principales-previsiones-de-commodities-para-2024","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/focus.s.nomatter.dev\/es\/blog\/nuestras-principales-previsiones-de-commodities-para-2024\/","title":{"rendered":"Nuestras principales previsiones de commodities para 2024"},"content":{"rendered":"

Precios de la energ\u00eda al alza:<\/strong><\/p>\n

Nuestro Consenso es que los precios de la energ\u00eda promediar\u00e1n alrededor del 2% m\u00e1s en 2024 que en 2023. Esto se debe principalmente a precios m\u00e1s altos del petr\u00f3leo, que deber\u00edan estar respaldados por los recortes continuos de la OPEP+ y un impulso econ\u00f3mico m\u00e1s fuerte en China; nuestros panelistas esperan que el crudo Brent promedie en USD 86 por barril el pr\u00f3ximo a\u00f1o. Tambi\u00e9n se prev\u00e9 que los precios del gas aumenten, impulsados por mayores exportaciones de GNL de EE. UU. y el limitado suministro de gas ruso. En contraste, se pronostica que los precios del carb\u00f3n caigan a medida que los pa\u00edses se inclinen cada vez m\u00e1s hacia combustibles m\u00e1s limpios.<\/p>\n

Precios de los metales b\u00e1sicos a la baja:<\/strong><\/p>\n

Un crecimiento econ\u00f3mico m\u00e1s d\u00e9bil en los principales mercados desarrollados har\u00e1 que los precios de los metales b\u00e1sicos promedien un 3% menos en 2024 en comparaci\u00f3n con 2023, seg\u00fan nuestros panelistas. Esto ser\u00e1 parcialmente compensado por un repunte en el impulso econ\u00f3mico en China, el mayor consumidor mundial de la mayor\u00eda de los metales b\u00e1sicos, siendo las medidas de est\u00edmulo adicionales chinas un riesgo al alza clave.<\/p>\n

Precios de los metales preciosos se ven en general estables:<\/strong><\/p>\n

Se proyecta que los precios de los metales preciosos ser\u00e1n en gran medida estables en 2024 en comparaci\u00f3n con 2023. Un d\u00f3lar estadounidense ligeramente m\u00e1s d\u00e9bil y los recortes de tasas por parte de los bancos centrales mundiales brindar\u00e1n apoyo a todos los metales preciosos. Adem\u00e1s, la plata se beneficiar\u00e1 de la expansi\u00f3n de los mercados de veh\u00edculos el\u00e9ctricos y energ\u00eda solar, y el platino ganar\u00e1 terreno debido a la sustituci\u00f3n por el paladio en los veh\u00edculos. Sin embargo, una menor inflaci\u00f3n ejercer\u00e1 presi\u00f3n a la baja, dado que los metales preciosos generalmente se consideran un refugio en tiempos de precios altos.<\/p>\n

Precios agr\u00edcolas a la baja:<\/strong><\/p>\n

Nuestros panelistas esperan que los precios agr\u00edcolas promedien alrededor del 8% menos en 2024 en comparaci\u00f3n con este a\u00f1o. La mitigaci\u00f3n de las condiciones de sequ\u00eda en Argentina y Uruguay impulsar\u00e1 el suministro mundial de granos, mientras que Ucrania construir\u00e1 gradualmente rutas comerciales alternativas para superar la expiraci\u00f3n en julio de la Iniciativa de Granos del Mar Negro con Rusia. Las restricciones a la exportaci\u00f3n en mercados emergentes, el impacto adverso de El Ni\u00f1o y una intensificaci\u00f3n de la guerra entre Rusia y Ucrania son riesgos al alza.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Perspectiva de nuestros analistas<\/strong><\/h2>\n

Sobre el petr\u00f3leo, analistas de EIU<\/strong> dijeron:<\/p>\n

\u00abSe espera que el mercado mundial del petr\u00f3leo permanezca extremadamente ajustado en 2024. Esperamos que Arabia Saudita respete las cuotas de producci\u00f3n reducidas acordadas con sus socios en el grupo de exportadores de petr\u00f3leo OPEP+ hasta finales del primer trimestre de 2024. Tambi\u00e9n es poco probable que el pa\u00eds aumente significativamente la producci\u00f3n durante el resto de ese a\u00f1o.\u00bb<\/em><\/p>\n

Sobre el cobre, Ewa Manthey de ING<\/strong> dijo:<\/p>\n

\u00abAunque a largo plazo, las perspectivas para el cobre siguen siendo alcistas debido a su papel clave en la transici\u00f3n energ\u00e9tica, para 2024, ser\u00e1 el equilibrio entre oferta y demanda lo que impulsar\u00e1 el precio del cobre, con una demanda rezagada de Occidente y una producci\u00f3n china en aumento que amortiguan las perspectivas a corto plazo.\u00bb<\/em><\/p>\n

Vivimos en una \u00e9poca de incertidumbre sin precedentes. Las actualizaciones diarias est\u00e1n aqu\u00ed para ayudarle a navegar por ella.<\/h3>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

Para explorar esta apasionante novedad, estaremos encantados de ofrecerle una demostraci\u00f3n o prueba gratuita<\/a>. P\u00f3ngase en contacto con nosotros si est\u00e1 interesado en llevar su visi\u00f3n econ\u00f3mica al siguiente nivel.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

En nuestro \u00faltimo art\u00edculo, examinamos las principales previsiones para 2024 de nuestro Informe sobre materias primas de diciembre.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":7,"featured_media":45252,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"editor_notices":[],"footnotes":""},"categories":[1702],"tags":[1694,1728,1839],"class_list":["post-148494","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-newsletters","tag-china","tag-commodities","tag-petroleo"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nNuestras principales previsiones de commodities para 2024 - FocusEconomics [ES]<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Nuestras principales previsiones de commodities para 2024\" class=\"yoast-seo-meta-tag\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, nofollow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"es_ES\" class=\"yoast-seo-meta-tag\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" class=\"yoast-seo-meta-tag\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Nuestras principales previsiones de commodities para 2024\" class=\"yoast-seo-meta-tag\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Nuestras principales previsiones de commodities para 2024\" class=\"yoast-seo-meta-tag\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/focus.s.nomatter.dev\/es\/blog\/nuestras-principales-previsiones-de-commodities-para-2024\/\" class=\"yoast-seo-meta-tag\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"FocusEconomics [ES]\" class=\"yoast-seo-meta-tag\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/FocusEconomics\" class=\"yoast-seo-meta-tag\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2024-01-11T13:10:19+00:00\" class=\"yoast-seo-meta-tag\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2025-02-12T10:09:50+00:00\" class=\"yoast-seo-meta-tag\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/focus.nm-img.net\/uploads\/sites\/5\/2022\/11\/Gasoline.jpg\" class=\"yoast-seo-meta-tag\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"2560\" class=\"yoast-seo-meta-tag\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"671\" class=\"yoast-seo-meta-tag\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" class=\"yoast-seo-meta-tag\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Sibel A\u011flamaz\" class=\"yoast-seo-meta-tag\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" class=\"yoast-seo-meta-tag\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:creator\" content=\"@FocusEconomics\" class=\"yoast-seo-meta-tag\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@FocusEconomics\" class=\"yoast-seo-meta-tag\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Escrito por\" class=\"yoast-seo-meta-tag\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Sibel A\u011flamaz\" class=\"yoast-seo-meta-tag\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Tiempo de lectura\" class=\"yoast-seo-meta-tag\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"4 minutos\" class=\"yoast-seo-meta-tag\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/focus.s.nomatter.dev\/es\/blog\/nuestras-principales-previsiones-de-commodities-para-2024\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/focus.s.nomatter.dev\/es\/blog\/nuestras-principales-previsiones-de-commodities-para-2024\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Sibel A\u011flamaz\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/focus.s.nomatter.dev\/es\/#\/schema\/person\/74ccc4de3a3df5da86a5bd7d82f542bc\"},\"headline\":\"Nuestras principales previsiones de commodities para 2024\",\"datePublished\":\"2024-01-11T13:10:19+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2025-02-12T10:09:50+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/focus.s.nomatter.dev\/es\/blog\/nuestras-principales-previsiones-de-commodities-para-2024\/\"},\"wordCount\":642,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/focus.s.nomatter.dev\/es\/#organization\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/focus.s.nomatter.dev\/es\/blog\/nuestras-principales-previsiones-de-commodities-para-2024\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\/\/focus-stg.nm-img.net\/uploads\/sites\/5\/2022\/11\/Gasoline.jpg\",\"keywords\":[\"China\",\"Commodities\",\"petr\u00f3leo\"],\"articleSection\":[\"Newsletters\"],\"inLanguage\":\"es\"},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/focus.s.nomatter.dev\/es\/blog\/nuestras-principales-previsiones-de-commodities-para-2024\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/focus.s.nomatter.dev\/es\/blog\/nuestras-principales-previsiones-de-commodities-para-2024\/\",\"name\":\"Nuestras principales previsiones de commodities para 2024 - 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