{"id":149024,"date":"2025-10-27T13:42:56","date_gmt":"2025-10-27T13:42:56","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/focus.s.nomatter.dev\/es\/?p=149024"},"modified":"2025-02-12T09:10:18","modified_gmt":"2025-02-12T09:10:18","slug":"can-the-african-lions-follow-in-the-footsteps-of-the-east-asian-tigers","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/focus.s.nomatter.dev\/es\/blog\/can-the-african-lions-follow-in-the-footsteps-of-the-east-asian-tigers\/","title":{"rendered":"\u00bfPueden los \u00abLeones Africanos\u00bb seguir los pasos de los Tigres del Este Asi\u00e1tico?"},"content":{"rendered":"

\u00bfPuede \u00c1frica repetir el \u00abmilagro\u00bb de Asia Oriental?<\/strong><\/p>\n

Al destacar las econom\u00edas m\u00e1s prometedoras de \u00c1frica, los analistas de mercado a menudo se\u00f1alan a los seis \u00abLeones Africanos\u00bb: Etiop\u00eda<\/a>, Ghana<\/a>, Kenia<\/a>, Mozambique<\/a>, Nigeria<\/a> y Sud\u00e1frica<\/a>. Este ep\u00edteto hace eco al utilizado para describir las econom\u00edas asi\u00e1ticas, como Hong Kong<\/a>, Singapur<\/a>, Corea del Sur<\/a> y Taiw\u00e1n<\/a>, que crecieron a una velocidad asombrosa en la segunda mitad del siglo XX: los \u00abTigres del Este Asi\u00e1tico\u00bb. Pero, \u00bfpueden los Leones Africanos repetir el milagro de crecimiento de los Tigres del Este Asi\u00e1tico?<\/p>\n

La gran divergencia:<\/strong><\/p>\n

En t\u00e9rminos de PIB per c\u00e1pita, los Leones Africanos han crecido a un ritmo mucho m\u00e1s d\u00e9bil que los Tigres del Este Asi\u00e1tico desde que comenzaron a divergir en la d\u00e9cada de 1950. Para 2022, el PIB per c\u00e1pita promedio de los Leones Africanos era aproximadamente el 5% del de los Tigres del Este Asi\u00e1tico, con un crecimiento lastrado por instituciones d\u00e9biles.<\/p>\n

Nuestras previsiones no sugieren milagros, pero s\u00ed un gran potencial:<\/strong><\/p>\n

Todos los Leones Africanos se espera que crezcan m\u00e1s r\u00e1pido que todos los Tigres del Este Asi\u00e1tico en los pr\u00f3ximos cinco a\u00f1os, con la excepci\u00f3n de Sud\u00e1frica. Pero esto no sorprende, ya que las econom\u00edas de ingresos m\u00e1s bajos generalmente crecen m\u00e1s r\u00e1pido que las m\u00e1s ricas debido a rendimientos decrecientes en la inversi\u00f3n de capital. Se espera que los Leones Africanos crezcan un 4.4% entre 2023 y 2027 en promedio. Los Tigres del Este Asi\u00e1tico crecieron casi un 10% en las d\u00e9cadas de 1960 y 1970, cuando su PIB per c\u00e1pita era similar al de los Leones Africanos hoy. Esto sugiere que los Leones Africanos es probable que no sigan los pasos de los Tigres del Este Asi\u00e1tico, al menos por ahora, con las instituciones d\u00e9biles como un obst\u00e1culo significativo. Dicho esto, los Leones Africanos retienen un gran potencial econ\u00f3mico, con una integraci\u00f3n econ\u00f3mica y pol\u00edtica m\u00e1s profunda dentro de la Uni\u00f3n Africana, que fue admitida recientemente en la cumbre del G20 como miembro, probablemente desempe\u00f1ando un papel clave si el continente quiere cerrar la brecha con Asia Oriental.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Perspectivas de nuestros analistas: <\/strong><\/h2>\n

Los analistas de la EIU<\/strong> son optimistas sobre las perspectivas de \u00c1frica para 2024:<\/p>\n

\u00abPreveemos que \u00c1frica ser\u00e1 la segunda regi\u00f3n m\u00e1s r\u00e1pida en crecimiento del mundo en 2024, justo detr\u00e1s de Asia, impulsada por China e India. Casi todos los estados africanos presentar\u00e1n un relato de crecimiento positivo, siendo Sud\u00e1n, devastado por la guerra, y Guinea Ecuatorial, las \u00fanicas econom\u00edas que parecen contraerse en 2024\u00bb.<\/em><\/p>\n

Sobre las necesidades de financiamiento externo, Bojosi Morule y Andrew Matheny de Goldman Sachs dijeron:<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u00abLas condiciones financieras globales m\u00e1s ajustadas han resultado en la p\u00e9rdida de acceso a los mercados de capital internacionales para las soberan\u00edas fronterizas y\/o de baja calificaci\u00f3n en 2023. Esto result\u00f3 en presiones de liquidez externa que, en la mayor\u00eda de los casos (excepto Ghana y Zambia), podr\u00edan abordarse con algunos ajustes significativos pero, en nuestra opini\u00f3n, bastante factibles en las pol\u00edticas de demanda, asumiendo que el entorno global de tasas finalmente volver\u00eda a los niveles anteriores a la Covid. Pero si asumimos un cambio de r\u00e9gimen persistente, es decir, que las tasas de inter\u00e9s globales m\u00e1s altas por m\u00e1s tiempo est\u00e1n aqu\u00ed para quedarse, estos hallazgos deben ser reevaluados\u00bb.<\/em><\/p>\n

Vivimos en una \u00e9poca de incertidumbre sin precedentes. Las actualizaciones diarias est\u00e1n aqu\u00ed para ayudarle a navegar por ella.<\/h3>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

Para explorar esta apasionante novedad,\u00a0estaremos encantados de ofrecerle una demostraci\u00f3n o prueba gratuita<\/a>. P\u00f3ngase en contacto con nosotros si est\u00e1 interesado en llevar su visi\u00f3n econ\u00f3mica al siguiente nivel.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

\u00bfPuede \u00c1frica repetir el \u00abmilagro\u00bb de Asia Oriental? Al destacar las econom\u00edas m\u00e1s prometedoras de \u00c1frica, los analistas de mercado a menudo se\u00f1alan a los seis \u00abLeones Africanos\u00bb: Etiop\u00eda, Ghana, Kenia, Mozambique, Nigeria y Sud\u00e1frica. Este ep\u00edteto hace eco al utilizado para describir las econom\u00edas asi\u00e1ticas, como Hong Kong, Singapur, Corea del Sur y Taiw\u00e1n,<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":7,"featured_media":48906,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"editor_notices":[],"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[1741,1802],"class_list":["post-149024","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-uncategorized","tag-africa","tag-pib"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\n\u00bfPueden los "Leones Africanos" seguir los pasos de los Tigres del Este Asi\u00e1tico? - FocusEconomics [ES]<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"es_ES\" class=\"yoast-seo-meta-tag\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" class=\"yoast-seo-meta-tag\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"\u00bfPueden los "Leones Africanos" seguir los pasos de los Tigres del Este Asi\u00e1tico?\" class=\"yoast-seo-meta-tag\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"\u00bfPuede \u00c1frica repetir el \u00abmilagro\u00bb de Asia Oriental? 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