{"id":149106,"date":"2024-02-08T15:01:48","date_gmt":"2024-02-08T15:01:48","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/focus.s.nomatter.dev\/es\/?p=149106"},"modified":"2024-02-08T16:13:46","modified_gmt":"2024-02-08T16:13:46","slug":"after-two-years-of-war-how-are-the-russian-and-ukrainian-economies-today","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/focus.s.nomatter.dev\/es\/blog\/after-two-years-of-war-how-are-the-russian-and-ukrainian-economies-today\/","title":{"rendered":"\u00bfC\u00f3mo les va a las econom\u00edas rusa y ucraniana despu\u00e9s de dos a\u00f1os de guerra?"},"content":{"rendered":"

Rusia lanz\u00f3 una invasi\u00f3n a gran escala de Ucrania en febrero de 2022. Aproximadamente dos a\u00f1os despu\u00e9s y sin vislumbrarse un fin al conflicto, el panorama econ\u00f3mico en ambos pa\u00edses ha cambiado notablemente, y no para mejor. Dicho esto, la actividad econ\u00f3mica ha demostrado ser m\u00e1s resiliente de lo que inicialmente esperaban nuestros panelistas al inicio de la guerra.<\/em><\/p>\n

Datos econ\u00f3micos recientes de Rusia y Ucrania:<\/strong><\/p>\n

La econom\u00eda de Rusia se contrajo solo un 2.1% en 2022 y luego recuper\u00f3 los niveles previos a la guerra en 2023, mucho mejor de lo que las proyecciones de mediados de 2022 de nuestros panelistas anticipaban con grandes contracciones en ambos a\u00f1os. Nuestros panelistas ven una expansi\u00f3n del PIB cercana al 3% en 2023, m\u00e1s r\u00e1pida que cualquier econom\u00eda del G7. Los principales impulsores detr\u00e1s de este rendimiento mejor de lo esperado fueron la producci\u00f3n de crudo resiliente, los altos precios del petr\u00f3leo, un mayor gasto en defensa y social, y la capacidad del pa\u00eds para sortear parcialmente las sanciones occidentales y compensar el comercio perdido con Occidente fortaleciendo lazos con Asia. La recesi\u00f3n econ\u00f3mica de Ucrania en 2022 tambi\u00e9n fue m\u00e1s suave de lo inicialmente anticipado, aunque la econom\u00eda ha perdido impulso desde entonces debido a ataques rusos repetidos en infraestructura cr\u00edtica y la disminuci\u00f3n de la ayuda occidental.<\/p>\n

Econom\u00eda rusa crecer\u00e1 a un ritmo tibio:<\/strong><\/p>\n

Nuestro Consenso es que el crecimiento del PIB se desacelerar\u00e1 a poco m\u00e1s del 1% durante nuestro horizonte de pron\u00f3stico hasta 2028, alrededor de la mitad del ritmo que los panelistas pronosticaban antes de la guerra. Los lazos comerciales cortados con Occidente junto con el declive poblacional estar\u00e1n detr\u00e1s de la lectura d\u00e9bil. Incluso en el improbable caso de un fin cercano a la guerra, parece haber pocas perspectivas de que el comercio con Occidente regrese a los niveles previos a la guerra. Las vastas reservas energ\u00e9ticas del pa\u00eds continuar\u00e1n proporcionando al gobierno un coj\u00edn fiscal vital, sin embargo, y los panelistas ven tanto el d\u00e9ficit presupuestario como la deuda p\u00fablica permaneciendo bajos en los pr\u00f3ximos a\u00f1os, a pesar de los probables gastos relacionados con la guerra en curso.<\/p>\n

La econom\u00eda ucraniana tardar\u00e1 mucho en recuperar su tama\u00f1o pre-guerra:<\/strong><\/p>\n

Tras la contracci\u00f3n del 29% en 2022, nuestras previsiones son que la econom\u00eda de Ucrania permanezca alrededor de un 6% m\u00e1s peque\u00f1a que su tama\u00f1o pre-guerra tan tarde como en 2028. Tanto la deuda p\u00fablica como el d\u00e9ficit presupuestario permanecer\u00e1n peligrosamente altos, con la primera cerca del 100% del PIB<\/span>, y la econom\u00eda depender\u00e1 del apoyo financiero occidental. Un fin duradero en el corto plazo del conflicto har\u00eda que la econom\u00eda de Ucrania se recupere mucho m\u00e1s r\u00e1pido, sin embargo, debido a un repunte de la inversi\u00f3n y el retorno de algunos ucranianos que viven fuera del pa\u00eds.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

En conclusi\u00f3n:<\/strong> La evoluci\u00f3n del conflicto ser\u00e1 el determinante clave de la actividad econ\u00f3mica tanto en Rusia como en Ucrania en los pr\u00f3ximos a\u00f1os. Y aunque en FocusEconomics nos enorgullecemos del valor y la precisi\u00f3n que proporcionan nuestros Consensus Forecasts, en este caso particular, por el bien de todos los involucrados, esperamos que sean excesivamente pesimistas.<\/p>\n

Perspectivas de nuestros panelistas: <\/strong><\/h2>\n

Sobre la inflaci\u00f3n rusa a la luz de la reciente fuerte actividad econ\u00f3mica, analistas de Goldman Sachs<\/strong> dijeron:<\/p>\n

\u00abEl crecimiento econ\u00f3mico en Rusia ha estado funcionando bien por encima del potencial, con fuertes presiones de demanda en el mercado laboral en particular. Aunque tanto la pol\u00edtica monetaria como la fiscal se endurecieron significativamente en 2023H2, el tama\u00f1o de la brecha de salida, las renovadas presiones de gasto fiscal antes de las elecciones presidenciales de marzo, as\u00ed como el conflicto militar en curso en Ucrania, contribuir\u00e1n a mantener la inflaci\u00f3n elevada, en nuestra opini\u00f3n. Adem\u00e1s, esperamos una mayor presi\u00f3n sobre la inflaci\u00f3n de un Rublo m\u00e1s d\u00e9bil tras las elecciones.\u00bb<\/em><\/p>\n

Sobre las perspectivas econ\u00f3micas de Ucrania en 2024, analistas de EIU<\/strong> dijeron:<\/p>\n

\u00abEl consumo privado ser\u00e1 respaldado por la normalizaci\u00f3n de las condiciones laborales en la gran mayor\u00eda del pa\u00eds, as\u00ed como por el aumento de la demanda de bienes y servicios ucranianos tanto a nivel nacional como en el extranjero. Los flujos financieros externos constantes y el gasto fiscal impulsar\u00e1n la inversi\u00f3n. El fortalecimiento de los lazos con la UE como parte del proceso de adhesi\u00f3n de Ucrania tambi\u00e9n tendr\u00e1 un efecto positivo en la capacidad del pa\u00eds para realizar su potencial de exportaci\u00f3n y como receptor de inversi\u00f3n.\u00bb<\/em><\/p>\n

Vivimos en una \u00e9poca de incertidumbre sin precedentes. Las actualizaciones diarias est\u00e1n aqu\u00ed para ayudarle a navegar por ella.<\/h3>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

Para explorar esta apasionante novedad,\u00a0estaremos encantados de ofrecerle una demostraci\u00f3n o prueba gratuita<\/a>. P\u00f3ngase en contacto con nosotros si est\u00e1 interesado en llevar su visi\u00f3n econ\u00f3mica al siguiente nivel<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Rusia lanz\u00f3 una invasi\u00f3n a gran escala de Ucrania en febrero de 2022. Aproximadamente dos a\u00f1os despu\u00e9s y sin vislumbrarse un fin al conflicto, el panorama econ\u00f3mico en ambos pa\u00edses ha cambiado notablemente, y no para mejor. Dicho esto, la actividad econ\u00f3mica ha demostrado ser m\u00e1s resiliente de lo que inicialmente esperaban nuestros panelistas al<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":7,"featured_media":51238,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"editor_notices":[],"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[1740,1749,1802],"class_list":["post-149106","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-uncategorized","tag-russia","tag-ukraine","tag-pib"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\n\u00bfC\u00f3mo les va a las econom\u00edas rusa y ucraniana despu\u00e9s de dos a\u00f1os de guerra? - FocusEconomics [ES]<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"es_ES\" class=\"yoast-seo-meta-tag\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" class=\"yoast-seo-meta-tag\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"\u00bfC\u00f3mo les va a las econom\u00edas rusa y ucraniana despu\u00e9s de dos a\u00f1os de guerra?\" class=\"yoast-seo-meta-tag\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Rusia lanz\u00f3 una invasi\u00f3n a gran escala de Ucrania en febrero de 2022. 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