{"id":150294,"date":"2024-03-28T16:34:15","date_gmt":"2024-03-28T16:34:15","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/focus.s.nomatter.dev\/es\/?p=150294"},"modified":"2024-03-28T16:59:57","modified_gmt":"2024-03-28T16:59:57","slug":"the-swiss-national-bank-just-became-the-first-major-central-bank-to-cut-rates-who-is-next","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/focus.s.nomatter.dev\/es\/blog\/the-swiss-national-bank-just-became-the-first-major-central-bank-to-cut-rates-who-is-next\/","title":{"rendered":"El Banco Nacional de Suiza acaba de convertirse en el primer gran banco central en bajar los tipos: \u00bfqui\u00e9n ser\u00e1 el pr\u00f3ximo?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>La pol\u00edtica monetaria mundial se endureci\u00f3 considerablemente entre 2021 y 2023, ya que los bancos centrales de todo el mundo trataron de conjurar las elevadas presiones sobre los precios derivadas del resurgimiento de la demanda interna y la paralizaci\u00f3n de las cadenas de suministro. Pero los tipos de inter\u00e9s alcanzaron su nivel m\u00e1ximo en la segunda mitad del a\u00f1o pasado, y ahora muchos est\u00e1n pendientes del tipo de inter\u00e9s de la Reserva Federal, el tipo de inter\u00e9s del BCE y los tipos de inter\u00e9s oficiales de otros grandes bancos para ver cu\u00e1ndo bajar\u00e1n.<\/p>\n<h2>Suiza marca el camino<\/h2>\n<p>El 21 de marzo, el Banco Nacional Suizo (BNS) recort\u00f3 su tipo de inter\u00e9s oficial del 1,75% al 1,50%, convirti\u00e9ndose en el primer gran banco central que recorta los tipos desde la pandemia. El BNS se encontr\u00f3 en la envidiable situaci\u00f3n de gestionar una econom\u00eda en la que la inflaci\u00f3n es de poco m\u00e1s del 1% anual -menos de la mitad que en la mayor\u00eda de las econom\u00edas desarrolladas-, lo que le permiti\u00f3 relajar su postura antes que otros bancos centrales.<\/p>\n<h2>El tipo de inter\u00e9s del BCE podr\u00eda ser el pr\u00f3ximo<\/h2>\n<p>Entre los principales bancos centrales, nuestros panelistas esperan que el tipo de inter\u00e9s del BCE sea el pr\u00f3ximo en bajar, probablemente en junio. La inflaci\u00f3n en la zona euro se sit\u00faa actualmente s\u00f3lo ligeramente por encima del objetivo del Banco del 2%, y la econom\u00eda se tambalea bajo el impacto de una pol\u00edtica monetaria restrictiva: la actividad econ\u00f3mica se estanc\u00f3 en el cuarto trimestre de 2023, y se espera que el crecimiento del PIB este a\u00f1o sea inferior a un tercio de la tasa estadounidense.<\/p>\n<h2>Canad\u00e1, el Reino Unido y Estados Unidos podr\u00edan tardar algo m\u00e1s en bajar los tipos<\/h2>\n<p>Nuestro Consenso est\u00e1 menos seguro de los recortes de tipos de la Fed y de los bancos de Canad\u00e1 y el Reino Unido en el segundo trimestre, y muchos panelistas esperan que los bancos centrales de estos pa\u00edses esperen hasta el tercer trimestre antes de recortar los tipos. Sin embargo, nuestro panel es pr\u00e1cticamente un\u00e1nime a la hora de juzgar que la pol\u00edtica monetaria se habr\u00e1 relajado en los tres pa\u00edses a finales de este a\u00f1o, con alrededor de 90-100 puntos b\u00e1sicos de recortes previstos.<\/p>\n<p>El resultado de la relajaci\u00f3n de la pol\u00edtica monetaria a finales de este a\u00f1o ser\u00e1 un repunte de la actividad econ\u00f3mica y una posible nueva subida de los mercados de renta variable, que ya han alcanzado m\u00e1ximos hist\u00f3ricos en los \u00faltimos meses.<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone wp-image-150302\" src=\"https:\/\/focus-economics.imgix.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/5\/2024\/03\/MicrosoftTeams-image-1-300x157.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"685\" height=\"359\" srcset=\"https:\/\/focus-d7op8.kinsta.storage\/staging\/uploads\/sites\/5\/2024\/03\/MicrosoftTeams-image-1-300x157.png 300w, https:\/\/focus-d7op8.kinsta.storage\/staging\/uploads\/sites\/5\/2024\/03\/MicrosoftTeams-image-1-1024x535.png 1024w, https:\/\/focus-d7op8.kinsta.storage\/staging\/uploads\/sites\/5\/2024\/03\/MicrosoftTeams-image-1-768x401.png 768w, https:\/\/focus-d7op8.kinsta.storage\/staging\/uploads\/sites\/5\/2024\/03\/MicrosoftTeams-image-1.png 1200w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 685px) 100vw, 685px\" \/><\/p>\n<h2>Visi\u00f3n de nuestra red de analistas<\/h2>\n<p>Sobre el tipo de inter\u00e9s oficial del BCE, los analistas de la <strong>EIU<\/strong> afirman:<\/p>\n<p><em>\u00abSe prev\u00e9 que el Banco Central Europeo (BCE) mantenga su tipo de inter\u00e9s oficial en su actual m\u00e1ximo hist\u00f3rico hasta mediados de 2024. Esto mantendr\u00e1 elevados los costes de los pr\u00e9stamos y del servicio de la deuda durante la mayor parte del a\u00f1o. Esperamos que la relajaci\u00f3n monetaria comience en junio y que el tipo de inter\u00e9s oficial se reduzca en 100 puntos b\u00e1sicos a finales de 2024.Esto tendr\u00e1 un impacto tangible en las condiciones de cr\u00e9dito para los hogares y las empresas s\u00f3lo a partir de 2025.\u00bb<\/em><\/p>\n<p>En cuanto a las perspectivas del tipo de la Fed, los analistas de <strong>Nomura<\/strong> afirman:<\/p>\n<p><em>\u00abMantenemos nuestra expectativa de s\u00f3lo dos recortes de tipos este a\u00f1o, en julio y diciembre. La distribuci\u00f3n de puntos sugiere que el FOMC est\u00e1 dividido entre dos y tres recortes este a\u00f1o, y es probable que los responsables pol\u00edticos sean sensibles a sorpresas al alza en los datos de inflaci\u00f3n.\u00bb<\/em><\/p>\n<h3>Nuestro \u00faltimo an\u00e1lisis:<\/h3>\n<p>En un reciente informe especial, examinamos las <a href=\"https:\/\/focus.s.nomatter.dev\/es\/blog\/perspectivas-de-la-asean\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">perspectivas econ\u00f3micas de la ASEAN<\/a> para 2024 y a\u00f1os posteriores.<\/p>\n<div class=\"reader-article-content reader-article-content--content-blocks\" dir=\"ltr\">\n<hr \/>\n<h3>Descargue nuestro informe especial gratuito sobre las perspectivas de los precios de las materias primas<\/h3>\n<\/div>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/focus.s.nomatter.dev\/blog\/long-term-commodities-outlook\/\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone  wp-image-150322\" src=\"https:\/\/focus-economics.imgix.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/5\/2024\/03\/MicrosoftTeams-image-2-1024x469.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"764\" height=\"350\" srcset=\"https:\/\/focus-d7op8.kinsta.storage\/staging\/uploads\/sites\/5\/2024\/03\/MicrosoftTeams-image-2-1024x469.png 1024w, https:\/\/focus-d7op8.kinsta.storage\/staging\/uploads\/sites\/5\/2024\/03\/MicrosoftTeams-image-2-300x137.png 300w, https:\/\/focus-d7op8.kinsta.storage\/staging\/uploads\/sites\/5\/2024\/03\/MicrosoftTeams-image-2-768x352.png 768w, https:\/\/focus-d7op8.kinsta.storage\/staging\/uploads\/sites\/5\/2024\/03\/MicrosoftTeams-image-2.png 1490w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 764px) 100vw, 764px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>El Banco Nacional de Suiza ha recortado recientemente su tipo de inter\u00e9s oficial. Qu\u00e9 ser\u00e1 lo pr\u00f3ximo para el tipo de la Fed, el tipo de inter\u00e9s del BCE y los tipos de otros grandes bancos centrales? <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":13,"featured_media":150301,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"editor_notices":[],"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[1836,1841,1842,1844],"class_list":["post-150294","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-uncategorized","tag-politica-monetaria","tag-tipo-de-interes","tag-fed","tag-bce"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v26.9) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>El Banco Nacional de Suiza acaba de convertirse en el primer gran banco central en bajar los tipos: \u00bfqui\u00e9n ser\u00e1 el pr\u00f3ximo? - FocusEconomics [ES]<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"es_ES\" class=\"yoast-seo-meta-tag\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" class=\"yoast-seo-meta-tag\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"El Banco Nacional de Suiza acaba de convertirse en el primer gran banco central en bajar los tipos: \u00bfqui\u00e9n ser\u00e1 el pr\u00f3ximo?\" class=\"yoast-seo-meta-tag\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"El Banco Nacional de Suiza ha recortado recientemente su tipo de inter\u00e9s oficial. 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