{"id":150335,"date":"2024-04-04T15:00:54","date_gmt":"2024-04-04T15:00:54","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/focus.s.nomatter.dev\/es\/?p=150335"},"modified":"2024-04-04T15:01:10","modified_gmt":"2024-04-04T15:01:10","slug":"whats-next-for-natural-gas-prices","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/focus.s.nomatter.dev\/es\/blog\/whats-next-for-natural-gas-prices\/","title":{"rendered":"\u00bfQu\u00e9 pasar\u00e1 con los precios del gas natural?"},"content":{"rendered":"

Los precios del gas natural se dispararon en 2021-2022 hasta alcanzar los niveles m\u00e1s altos desde la crisis financiera. Desde entonces han bajado, pero la dif\u00edcil situaci\u00f3n de los consumidores de este combustible -hogares, empresas e inversores- dista mucho de haber terminado. El espectro de las guerras regionales en Europa del Este<\/a> y Oriente Medio<\/a> sigue amenazando el suministro. Y en medio de todo esto, las econom\u00edas de los gigantes del gas, Qatar y Estados Unidos, han visto c\u00f3mo sus vol\u00famenes de exportaci\u00f3n de GNL se disparaban en los \u00faltimos a\u00f1os. En nuestro \u00faltimo informe especial<\/a>, hemos sondeado a los principales analistas del mercado sobre las perspectivas del mercado del gas natural para los pr\u00f3ximos cinco a\u00f1os.<\/p>\n

En 2024, los precios del gas natural bajar\u00e1n<\/h2>\n

La previsi\u00f3n para los precios del gas natural<\/a> en 2024 es que bajen en Asia y Europa<\/a> a partir de 2023, y que se mantengan estables en EE.UU. En las tres regiones, los inventarios est\u00e1n mucho m\u00e1s llenos de lo normal, lastrados por el clima templado, la d\u00e9bil producci\u00f3n industrial y el paso a las energ\u00edas renovables. Estos factores seguir\u00e1n presionando a la baja los precios en 2024.<\/p>\n

En 2025, los precios subir\u00e1n<\/h2>\n

El Consenso prev\u00e9 que los precios del gas natural suban en Europa y EE.UU., superando la media de 10 a\u00f1os anterior a la pandemia en ambos pa\u00edses. En Asia, los precios se mantendr\u00e1n estables, aunque superar\u00e1n la media anterior a la pandemia. El Ni\u00f1o, que elev\u00f3 las temperaturas el invierno pasado, no volver\u00e1 el a\u00f1o que viene, lo que aumentar\u00e1 la demanda de calefacci\u00f3n. El aumento de la producci\u00f3n industrial y el mantenimiento de las sanciones occidentales a Rusia avivar\u00e1n a\u00fan m\u00e1s los precios.<\/p>\n

Pero persisten los riesgos<\/h2>\n

Uno de los riesgos detallados en nuestro informe sobre el gas natural es la reciente congelaci\u00f3n por parte de la Administraci\u00f3n Biden de las nuevas licencias de exportaci\u00f3n de GNL. Sin embargo, la prohibici\u00f3n podr\u00eda deshacerse pronto, ya que recientes informes de los medios de comunicaci\u00f3n sugieren que el presidente republicano de la C\u00e1mara de Representantes, Mike Johnson, podr\u00eda ofrecerse a impulsar un paquete de ayuda militar para Ucrania si, entre otras condiciones, Biden suprime las restricciones.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Opiniones de nuestros panelistas<\/h3>\n

Seg\u00fan los analistas de Goldman Sachs<\/strong>:<\/p>\n

\u00abEl d\u00e9ficit estructural del gas natural europeo a\u00fan no se ha resuelto del todo, ya que el aumento del suministro de GNL a\u00fan no compensa totalmente la p\u00e9rdida de importaciones rusas. As\u00ed pues, los precios europeos del gas siguen siendo vulnerables a las interrupciones del suministro o a los aumentos de la demanda. Este es especialmente el caso durante el invierno, cuando la calefacci\u00f3n, que depende de las condiciones meteorol\u00f3gicas, constituye la mayor parte de la demanda y los episodios de fr\u00edo pueden provocar una r\u00e1pida ca\u00edda de las existencias y un aumento de los precios.\u00bb<\/p>\n

Los analistas de Desjardins<\/strong> comentaron:<\/p>\n

\u00abEl anuncio de la administraci\u00f3n Biden de pausar el proceso de aprobaci\u00f3n de la construcci\u00f3n de nuevas terminales de exportaci\u00f3n de gas natural licuado (GNL) […] ha reavivado el temor a un exceso de oferta en el mercado. Adem\u00e1s, el clima c\u00e1lido en Norteam\u00e9rica ha reducido la demanda de calefacci\u00f3n. En los \u00faltimos 12 meses [hasta marzo], la temperatura media en Estados Unidos ha sido 1,3 \u00b0C superior a la media hist\u00f3rica. En combinaci\u00f3n con la producci\u00f3n r\u00e9cord estadounidense, estos factores hicieron bajar los precios del Henry Hub\u00bb.<\/p>\n

\n
\n

Descargue nuestro informe especial gratuito sobre las perspectivas de los precios del gas natural<\/h3>\n<\/div>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Los precios del gas natural se dispararon en 2021-2022 hasta alcanzar los niveles m\u00e1s altos desde la crisis financiera. Desde entonces han bajado, pero la dif\u00edcil situaci\u00f3n de los consumidores de este combustible -hogares, empresas e inversores- dista mucho de haber terminado. El espectro de las guerras regionales en Europa del Este y Oriente Medio<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":13,"featured_media":150339,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"editor_notices":[],"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[1810,1837,1846],"class_list":["post-150335","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-uncategorized","tag-energia","tag-materias-primas","tag-gas-natural"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\n\u00bfQu\u00e9 pasar\u00e1 con los precios del gas natural? - FocusEconomics [ES]<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"es_ES\" class=\"yoast-seo-meta-tag\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" class=\"yoast-seo-meta-tag\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"\u00bfQu\u00e9 pasar\u00e1 con los precios del gas natural?\" class=\"yoast-seo-meta-tag\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Los precios del gas natural se dispararon en 2021-2022 hasta alcanzar los niveles m\u00e1s altos desde la crisis financiera. 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