{"id":150715,"date":"2024-04-19T10:24:07","date_gmt":"2024-04-19T10:24:07","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/focus.s.nomatter.dev\/es\/?p=150715"},"modified":"2025-02-12T09:06:37","modified_gmt":"2025-02-12T09:06:37","slug":"how-will-sky-high-tensions-with-israel-affect-irans-economy","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/focus.s.nomatter.dev\/es\/blog\/how-will-sky-high-tensions-with-israel-affect-irans-economy\/","title":{"rendered":"\u00bfC\u00f3mo afectar\u00e1 a la econom\u00eda iran\u00ed el aumento de las tensiones con Israel?"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

A mediados de abril, Ir\u00e1n lanz\u00f3 una andanada de cohetes y aviones teledirigidos contra Israel, un ataque directo sin precedentes que marca una importante escalada de tensiones entre los dos eternos enemigos geopol\u00edticos. Sin embargo, aunque las amenazas externas a la econom\u00eda iran\u00ed han aumentado, el sector energ\u00e9tico del pa\u00eds parece ir viento en popa, y las noticias destacan que las exportaciones de petr\u00f3leo iran\u00ed han alcanzado recientemente su nivel m\u00e1s alto en seis a\u00f1os. En este doble contexto, \u00bfqu\u00e9 creen nuestros panelistas<\/a> que le espera a la econom\u00eda iran\u00ed?<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

Aumentar\u00e1n las exportaciones de petr\u00f3leo iran\u00ed<\/strong><\/h2>\n

Nuestro Consenso es que la producci\u00f3n de petr\u00f3leo de Ir\u00e1n alcance una media de 3,1 millones de barriles diarios este a\u00f1o, lo que supondr\u00eda la lectura m\u00e1s alta desde 2018 -el a\u00f1o en que el entonces presidente de Estados Unidos, Donald Trump, se retir\u00f3 del acuerdo nuclear y reimpuso sanciones a Teher\u00e1n-. Esto contrastar\u00e1 fuertemente con los otros grandes exportadores de petr\u00f3leo de Oriente Medio, que a diferencia de Ir\u00e1n est\u00e1n sujetos en su mayor\u00eda a las restricciones de la OPEP: Se prev\u00e9 que la producci\u00f3n de Irak, Kuwait, Arabia Saud\u00ed y los EAU disminuya este a\u00f1o. En consecuencia, la econom\u00eda iran\u00ed deber\u00eda crecer m\u00e1s r\u00e1pidamente que la media de Oriente Medio y el Norte de \u00c1frica en 2024.<\/p>\n

Las nuevas sanciones ser\u00e1n ineficaces<\/strong><\/h2>\n

Aunque se dice que los pa\u00edses occidentales est\u00e1n preparando nuevas sanciones contra el sector petrolero iran\u00ed, es probable que no den en el blanco, dada la considerable experiencia y habilidad de Ir\u00e1n para evitar las sanciones, y el hecho de que casi todo el petr\u00f3leo del pa\u00eds ya se vende a China, no a Occidente. Adem\u00e1s, es poco probable que el presidente de Estados Unidos, Joe Biden, presione con fuerza para hacer cumplir las sanciones, dado que una menor oferta de petr\u00f3leo podr\u00eda espolear las ya persistentes presiones inflacionistas y mermar as\u00ed sus posibilidades de vencer a Trump en las elecciones de noviembre.<\/p>\n

\n

La econom\u00eda iran\u00ed se moderar\u00e1 internamente<\/strong><\/h2>\n

Puede que el deterioro de la geopol\u00edtica no perjudique demasiado al sector petrolero, pero no ocurre lo mismo con la demanda interna. La moneda nacional se ha depreciado m\u00e1s de una cuarta parte en lo que va de a\u00f1o en el mercado paralelo como consecuencia de las tensiones pol\u00edticas, lo que dejar\u00e1 a Ir\u00e1n con el poco envidiable r\u00e9cord de tener este a\u00f1o la segunda tasa de inflaci\u00f3n m\u00e1s alta de la regi\u00f3n, despu\u00e9s de L\u00edbano, seg\u00fan nuestros panelistas. Esto agravar\u00e1 las ya dif\u00edciles condiciones econ\u00f3micas nacionales y afectar\u00e1 a su vez al gasto de los consumidores y a la inversi\u00f3n.<\/p>\n

El conflicto con Israel es el elefante en la habitaci\u00f3n<\/strong><\/h2>\n

Por supuesto, las previsiones de nuestros panelistas asumen que no habr\u00e1 una guerra total entre Ir\u00e1n e Israel. Si esto ocurriera -lo que no est\u00e1 descartado, dado el liderazgo militar de l\u00ednea dura en ambos pa\u00edses y el alto riesgo de un error de c\u00e1lculo pol\u00edtico- todas las apuestas se cancelar\u00edan, y la econom\u00eda de Ir\u00e1n dir\u00eda adi\u00f3s r\u00e1pidamente a su actual capacidad de recuperaci\u00f3n.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Opiniones de nuestros panelistas<\/strong><\/h2>\n

En cuanto al sector petrolero, los analistas de Goldman Sachs<\/strong> afirmaron:<\/p>\n

\u00abEstimamos que la producci\u00f3n de crudo iran\u00ed ha aumentado unos 0,6 mb\/d (o m\u00e1s del 20%) en los dos \u00faltimos a\u00f1os. Si el mercado pusiera en precio una mayor probabilidad de reducci\u00f3n del suministro de Ir\u00e1n, esto podr\u00eda contribuir a una mayor prima de riesgo geopol\u00edtico. […] Aunque la prima de riesgo geopol\u00edtico -la compensaci\u00f3n que exigen los inversores por el riesgo de que las perturbaciones geopol\u00edticas reduzcan el suministro de petr\u00f3leo- es dif\u00edcil de calcular, nuestra estimaci\u00f3n aproximada, basada en nuestro marco de fijaci\u00f3n de precios y en el coste de la cobertura, se situar\u00eda en torno a 5-10 $\/bbl\u00bb.<\/em><\/p>\n

En cuanto a la situaci\u00f3n econ\u00f3mica interna, los analistas de EIU<\/strong> afirman:<\/p>\n

\u00abLas graves dificultades econ\u00f3micas y la pol\u00edtica exterior de confrontaci\u00f3n de la que se derivan principalmente seguir\u00e1n creando un profundo descontento p\u00fablico a lo largo de 2024-28, desencadenando repetidos brotes de agitaci\u00f3n social. La sensaci\u00f3n de asedio del r\u00e9gimen por parte de fuerzas hostiles tanto nacionales como internacionales impulsar\u00e1 una represi\u00f3n cada vez m\u00e1s dura.\u00bb<\/em><\/p>\n

\n

Descargue nuestro informe especial gratuito sobre las perspectivas de los precios del gas natural<\/h3>\n<\/div>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

La econom\u00eda iran\u00ed deber\u00eda beneficiarse este a\u00f1o del aumento de las exportaciones de petr\u00f3leo, que alcanzaron su nivel m\u00e1s alto en seis a\u00f1os.\u202f<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":13,"featured_media":150720,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"editor_notices":[],"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[1732,1839,1851,1852],"class_list":["post-150715","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-uncategorized","tag-israel","tag-petroleo","tag-medio-oriente","tag-iran"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nPerspectivas iran\u00edes de econom\u00eda y exportaciones de petr\u00f3leo.<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"La econom\u00eda iran\u00ed deber\u00eda beneficiarse este a\u00f1o del aumento de las exportaciones de petr\u00f3leo, que alcanzaron su nivel m\u00e1s alto en seis a\u00f1os.\u202f\" 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