{"id":150900,"date":"2024-06-06T10:22:34","date_gmt":"2024-06-06T10:22:34","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/focus.s.nomatter.dev\/es\/?p=150900"},"modified":"2024-06-02T18:12:41","modified_gmt":"2024-06-02T18:12:41","slug":"has-the-euro-area-escaped-its-low-inflation-trap-for-good","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/focus.s.nomatter.dev\/es\/blog\/has-the-euro-area-escaped-its-low-inflation-trap-for-good\/","title":{"rendered":"\u00bfHa salido definitivamente la zona euro de su trampa de baja inflaci\u00f3n?"},"content":{"rendered":"

Durante gran parte de la d\u00e9cada de 2010, la inflaci\u00f3n en los pa\u00edses de la zona euro no alcanz\u00f3 el objetivo del 2,0% fijado por el Banco Central Europeo, debido a una combinaci\u00f3n de factores internos -principalmente la debilidad de la demanda- y externos, como el auge de la globalizaci\u00f3n y la ca\u00edda de los precios del petr\u00f3leo a partir de 2015. Todo esto cambi\u00f3 tras el final de la pandemia del virus Covid-19, cuando las cadenas de suministro mundiales se paralizaron y la demanda se recuper\u00f3 r\u00e1pidamente; la inflaci\u00f3n lleva m\u00e1s de dos a\u00f1os por encima del objetivo del BCE. Pero, \u00bfqu\u00e9 depara el futuro para la inflaci\u00f3n en los pa\u00edses de la zona euro?<\/p>\n

Se espera que la inflaci\u00f3n en los pa\u00edses de la zona euro cumpla el objetivo<\/h2>\n

Nuestro Consenso prev\u00e9 que la inflaci\u00f3n de los pa\u00edses de la zona euro<\/a> converja finalmente hacia el objetivo del 2,0% a mediados del pr\u00f3ximo a\u00f1o, y que se mantenga aproximadamente estable a medio y largo plazo. Esto supondr\u00eda un notable aumento respecto a la media del 1,4% de la d\u00e9cada de 2010. Sin embargo, existe una gran discrepancia entre nuestros panelistas: Las previsiones medias de inflaci\u00f3n para 2025 oscilan entre el 1,2% y el 3,0%, mientras que las de 2026 van del 1,5% al 2,8%, por ejemplo.<\/p>\n

M\u00faltiples factores impulsar\u00e1n la presi\u00f3n sobre los precios<\/h2>\n

El abandono del gas ruso por parte de la UE en favor de las energ\u00edas limpias elevar\u00e1 los costes para la industria y los consumidores, al igual que el creciente proteccionismo mundial y el deseo generalizado de los pa\u00edses de aumentar la seguridad de la cadena de suministro en detrimento de la eficiencia. Adem\u00e1s, se prev\u00e9 que el mercado laboral de la UE se mantenga tenso en los pr\u00f3ximos a\u00f1os debido al envejecimiento de la poblaci\u00f3n, y nuestros panelistas prev\u00e9n un crecimiento salarial en torno a un 50% superior al de la d\u00e9cada de 2010, lo que a su vez impulsar\u00e1 la inflaci\u00f3n en los pa\u00edses de la zona del euro.<\/p>\n

Abundan los riesgos al alza para la inflaci\u00f3n<\/h2>\n

La escalada de las tensiones entre la UE y China es un riesgo clave para la inflaci\u00f3n. El bloque podr\u00eda imponer aranceles a las importaciones chinas de veh\u00edculos el\u00e9ctricos a finales de este a\u00f1o, y recientemente ha iniciado investigaciones sobre otros aspectos de las relaciones comerciales entre China y la UE. Adem\u00e1s, est\u00e1 la posible victoria de Donald Trump en las elecciones presidenciales estadounidenses de noviembre: ha amenazado con imponer aranceles a todas las importaciones, lo que podr\u00eda llevar a Europa a tomar represalias elevando a su vez sus propias barreras comerciales. Y los conflictos en Oriente Medio y Ucrania podr\u00edan intensificarse, perturbando el transporte mar\u00edtimo mundial, as\u00ed como la producci\u00f3n petrolera y agr\u00edcola. As\u00ed pues, aunque la inflaci\u00f3n de los pa\u00edses de la zona euro va a volver al objetivo, no se puede confiar en que se mantenga indefinidamente.<\/p>\n

\"Our<\/p>\n

\n

Opiniones de nuestros panelistas<\/h2>\n

Los analistas de la EIU<\/strong> comentaron las relaciones de Occidente con China:<\/p>\n

\u00abSi las relaciones de Occidente con China se agrian sustancialmente, las econom\u00edas occidentales podr\u00edan aumentar los aranceles existentes sobre las importaciones chinas o acelerar las investigaciones pendientes sobre cargos antidumping y subvenciones estatales, alimentando a\u00fan m\u00e1s la inflaci\u00f3n. China tomar\u00eda represalias, posiblemente bloqueando las exportaciones de materias primas fundamentales para la transici\u00f3n ecol\u00f3gica, como las tierras raras, lo que encarecer\u00eda los esfuerzos de descarbonizaci\u00f3n de los mercados desarrollados.\u00bb<\/p>\n

En cuanto al crecimiento de los salarios en Europa, el economista jefe de Berenberg, Holger Schmieding,<\/strong> afirm\u00f3:<\/p>\n

\u00abLas empresas recuperar\u00e1n poder de fijaci\u00f3n de precios en 2025. A largo plazo, el crecimiento persistentemente elevado de los salarios seguir\u00e1 presionando al alza los precios de los servicios intensivos en mano de obra. Como los costes de la protecci\u00f3n del clima tambi\u00e9n tendr\u00e1n su impacto, esperamos que la inflaci\u00f3n en Europa vuelva a subir hasta el 2,5% a lo largo de 2025\u00bb.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Durante gran parte de la d\u00e9cada de 2010, la inflaci\u00f3n en los pa\u00edses de la zona euro no alcanz\u00f3 el objetivo del 2,0% fijado por el Banco Central Europeo, debido a una combinaci\u00f3n de factores internos -principalmente la debilidad de la demanda- y externos, como el auge de la globalizaci\u00f3n y la ca\u00edda de los<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":25,"featured_media":150905,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"editor_notices":[],"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[1812,1858,1859],"class_list":["post-150900","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-uncategorized","tag-inflacion","tag-europa","tag-riesgo"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\n\u00bfHa salido definitivamente la zona euro de su trampa de baja inflaci\u00f3n? - FocusEconomics [ES]<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow, max-snippet:-1, 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