{"id":151018,"date":"2025-11-04T18:07:25","date_gmt":"2025-11-04T18:07:25","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/focus.s.nomatter.dev\/es\/?p=151018"},"modified":"2025-02-12T09:55:51","modified_gmt":"2025-02-12T09:55:51","slug":"mena-our-new-outlook-and-upgraded-coverage-for-a-region-at-a-crossroads-copy","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/focus.s.nomatter.dev\/es\/blog\/mena-our-new-outlook-and-upgraded-coverage-for-a-region-at-a-crossroads-copy\/","title":{"rendered":"MENA: nuevas perspectivas y mayor cobertura para una regi\u00f3n en encrucijada"},"content":{"rendered":"

Oriente Medio y el Norte de \u00c1frica se encuentran en una encrucijada econ\u00f3mica y pol\u00edtica. Una guerra asola el Levante, infligiendo un inmenso sufrimiento humano y amenazando con desbordarse en un conflicto regional m\u00e1s amplio. Pero a pesar de la guerra, la econom\u00eda de Oriente Medio y Norte de \u00c1frica sigue siendo una de las m\u00e1s prometedoras del mundo. Las potencias regionales, como Arabia Saud\u00ed, abogan por una soluci\u00f3n pol\u00edtica al conflicto que garantice la paz y la estabilidad a largo plazo. Riad y las capitales vecinas est\u00e1n impacientes por seguir sembrando las semillas del futuro \u00e9xito econ\u00f3mico de sus pa\u00edses: En 2022, la econom\u00eda de Oriente Medio y Norte de \u00c1frica<\/a> creci\u00f3 al ritmo m\u00e1s r\u00e1pido desde principios de la d\u00e9cada de 2000, y la participaci\u00f3n del sector no petrolero en el PIB de los pa\u00edses del Golfo aument\u00f3 9 puntos porcentuales con respecto a hace una d\u00e9cada.<\/p>\n

Nuestra nueva perspectiva de la regi\u00f3n<\/h2>\n

Para reflejar el creciente peso de la regi\u00f3n MENA, este mes hemos redactado una nueva perspectiva de la econom\u00eda de la regi\u00f3n para 2024-2028.<\/a> El informe es gratuito y abarca nuestras previsiones de consenso para el crecimiento del PIB, la producci\u00f3n petrolera y no petrolera, la inflaci\u00f3n y el saldo fiscal.<\/p>\n

Nuestra cobertura mejorada de la regi\u00f3n<\/h2>\n

Adem\u00e1s, este mes tambi\u00e9n hemos mejorado nuestra cobertura de Qatar<\/a> y Kuwait<\/a>, dos de las econom\u00edas m\u00e1s prometedoras de la regi\u00f3n. Nuestra cobertura incluye ahora an\u00e1lisis escritos espec\u00edficos para ambos pa\u00edses sobre datos econ\u00f3micos de alta frecuencia -redactados por nuestro equipo interno de economistas-, como el PIB, las lecturas del \u00edndice de gestores de compras, la producci\u00f3n industrial, la producci\u00f3n de petr\u00f3leo y la inflaci\u00f3n. Adem\u00e1s, nuestra cobertura incluye ahora previsiones trimestrales del crecimiento del PIB y la inflaci\u00f3n tanto para Qatar como para Kuwait, as\u00ed como datos mensuales de la producci\u00f3n de petr\u00f3leo, la producci\u00f3n industrial y las lecturas del \u00edndice de gestores de compras. Por \u00faltimo, nuestra cobertura contiene nuevos gr\u00e1ficos detallados y desgloses de panelistas para indicadores adicionales de ambos pa\u00edses, como el consumo privado, la inversi\u00f3n total, la deuda p\u00fablica, las exportaciones y las importaciones.<\/p>\n

\"Nuestro<\/p>\n

Opiniones de nuestros panelistas<\/h2>\n

Sobre las perspectivas de crecimiento del PIB regional, los analistas de Fitch Solutions<\/strong> dijeron:<\/p>\n

\u00abEl crecimiento de la regi\u00f3n MENA se acelerar\u00e1 ligeramente del 1,9% en 2023 al 2,4% en 2024, pero se enfrentar\u00e1 a importantes vientos en contra derivados de la guerra entre Israel y Ham\u00e1s, la ralentizaci\u00f3n del crecimiento en econom\u00edas clave y la crisis del Mar Rojo. En el CCG, el crecimiento se acelerar\u00e1 del 0,6% al 2,6% en 2024, impulsado por la normalizaci\u00f3n de la producci\u00f3n de petr\u00f3leo y los buenos resultados del sector de los no hidrocarburos, sobre todo gracias a la inversi\u00f3n en esfuerzos de diversificaci\u00f3n. El crecimiento en el norte de \u00c1frica se ralentizar\u00e1 del 3,1% en 2023 al 2,4% en 2024 […mientras que] el Levante experimentar\u00e1 una contracci\u00f3n del 0,6% en 2024 debido a la guerra entre Israel y Ham\u00e1s.\u00bb<\/em><\/p>\n

Sobre los pr\u00f3ximos posibles movimientos de la OPEP+, Natasha Kaneva, Jefa del equipo de Estrategia Global de Materias Primas de JPMorgan<\/strong>, coment\u00f3:<\/p>\n

\u00abNuestra visi\u00f3n fundamental sobre el petr\u00f3leo no ha cambiado. Ahora esperamos que la OPEP ampl\u00ede los recortes voluntarios de producci\u00f3n m\u00e1s all\u00e1 del segundo trimestre en su reuni\u00f3n del 1 de junio. Las reservas acumuladas en abril se convertir\u00e1n en reducciones de mayo a agosto y pueden impulsar los precios hasta los 90 d\u00f3lares en septiembre. Optamos por mantener sin cambios nuestra previsi\u00f3n de precios (80\/90 $ altos hasta mayo, 85 $ a partir de entonces), ya que la pr\u00f3rroga de la OPEP no aborda los desequilibrios de 2025. Mantenemos un sesgo de riesgo alcista en torno a nuestra previsi\u00f3n de precios base, pero se\u00f1alamos que podr\u00eda volver a ser neutral si el acuerdo de seguridad entre EE.UU. y Arabia Saud\u00ed llegara a buen puerto\u00bb.<\/em><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Oriente Medio y el Norte de \u00c1frica se encuentran en una encrucijada econ\u00f3mica y pol\u00edtica. Una guerra asola el Levante, infligiendo un inmenso sufrimiento humano y amenazando con desbordarse en un conflicto regional m\u00e1s amplio. Pero a pesar de la guerra, la econom\u00eda de Oriente Medio y Norte de \u00c1frica sigue siendo una de las<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":25,"featured_media":151025,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"editor_notices":[],"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[1728,1806,1807],"class_list":["post-151018","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-uncategorized","tag-commodities","tag-brics","tag-energias-renovables"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nMENA: nuevas perspectivas y mayor cobertura para una regi\u00f3n en encrucijada - FocusEconomics [ES]<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"es_ES\" class=\"yoast-seo-meta-tag\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" class=\"yoast-seo-meta-tag\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"MENA: nuevas perspectivas y mayor cobertura para una regi\u00f3n en encrucijada\" class=\"yoast-seo-meta-tag\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Oriente Medio y el Norte de \u00c1frica se encuentran en una encrucijada econ\u00f3mica y pol\u00edtica. 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