{"id":152216,"date":"2025-10-27T13:01:36","date_gmt":"2025-10-27T13:01:36","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/focus.s.nomatter.dev\/es\/?p=152216"},"modified":"2025-11-04T18:12:31","modified_gmt":"2025-11-04T18:12:31","slug":"our-consensus-forecasts-suggest-novo-nordisk-will-continue-to-drive-denmarks-gdp-growth","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/focus.s.nomatter.dev\/es\/blog\/our-consensus-forecasts-suggest-novo-nordisk-will-continue-to-drive-denmarks-gdp-growth\/","title":{"rendered":"Nuestras previsiones de consenso sugieren que Novo Nordisk seguir\u00e1 impulsando el crecimiento del PIB de Dinamarca"},"content":{"rendered":"

Los mejores resultados de Escandinavia<\/strong><\/p>\n

Nuestros panelistas consideran que el crecimiento del PIB de Dinamarca ser\u00e1 el m\u00e1s alto de Escandinavia este a\u00f1o y el pr\u00f3ximo, despu\u00e9s de un rendimiento superior al de la regi\u00f3n en 2023. Y Novo Nordisk, el gigante farmac\u00e9utico dan\u00e9s con una capitalizaci\u00f3n burs\u00e1til mayor que el PIB de Dinamarca, desempe\u00f1a un papel importante en estas halag\u00fce\u00f1as previsiones. La empresa est\u00e1 detr\u00e1s de los superventas Ozempic y Wegovy, que combaten la diabetes y la obesidad, respectivamente. Las crecientes ventas de estos f\u00e1rmacos hicieron que los beneficios de Novo Nordisk aumentaran a la mitad el a\u00f1o pasado, y potencialmente a una cuarta parte en 2024.<\/p>\n

El factor Novo<\/strong><\/p>\n

El aumento de las ventas de medicamentos hizo que las exportaciones de Dinamarca crecieran un enorme 13,4% interanual en 2023, y nuestros panelistas prev\u00e9n un aumento adicional del 7,4% para 2024. Pero Novo Nordisk no s\u00f3lo se beneficia del sector exterior: La empresa tambi\u00e9n est\u00e1 gastando miles de millones de euros para ampliar su capacidad de fabricaci\u00f3n dentro de Dinamarca, y sus crecientes pagos del impuesto de sociedades est\u00e1n ayudando a financiar las prioridades de gasto p\u00fablico, desde la defensa hasta la transici\u00f3n ecol\u00f3gica. La empresa pag\u00f3 cerca de 3.000 millones de euros en impuestos el a\u00f1o pasado, m\u00e1s del doble que hace cuatro a\u00f1os. Para poner realmente en perspectiva la importancia de Novo Nordisk para la econom\u00eda, consid\u00e9rese que el crecimiento del PIB de Dinamarca, del 1,9% el a\u00f1o pasado, habr\u00eda sido pr\u00e1cticamente nulo sin la enorme contribuci\u00f3n de la empresa.<\/p>\n

El peligro de la dependencia excesiva<\/strong><\/p>\n

A principios del siglo XXI, el gigante de las telecomunicaciones Nokia dominaba el panorama econ\u00f3mico local de Finlandia y estaba a la vanguardia del mercado de la telefon\u00eda m\u00f3vil. Pero la empresa se qued\u00f3 atr\u00e1s tecnol\u00f3gicamente a finales de la d\u00e9cada de 2000 y tuvo que despedir a miles de empleados finlandeses. El declive de la empresa contribuy\u00f3 a la mitad de la ca\u00edda del PIB finland\u00e9s en 2009. Es un cuento con moraleja que guarda cierto parecido con la situaci\u00f3n actual de Dinamarca. Al igual que Nokia, Novo Nordisk depende de un reducido conjunto de productos para generar ingresos. Y al igual que Nokia -cuya bestia negra era Apple y el iPhone-, Novo Nordisk tiene cada vez m\u00e1s rivales: la estadounidense Eli Lilly ya vende su propio medicamento contra la obesidad, y muchas otras empresas farmac\u00e9uticas compiten por hacerse con una parte del mercado.<\/p>\n

Teniendo esto en cuenta, el gobierno dan\u00e9s har\u00eda bien en utilizar los beneficios econ\u00f3micos del ascenso de Novo Nordisk para construir un ecosistema farmac\u00e9utico m\u00e1s amplio e impulsar otros sectores econ\u00f3micos. Si se limita a embolsarse los beneficios, es posible que la recuperaci\u00f3n econ\u00f3mica no dure mucho. Para m\u00e1s detalles y proyecciones, puedes consultar nuestro Consensus Forecast.<\/a><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

Opiniones de nuestra red de analistas<\/h2>\n

Los analistas de Goldman Sachs<\/strong> comentaron las perspectivas de Novo Nordisk:<\/p>\n

\u00abAunque un mercado tan grande ha atra\u00eddo muchas inversiones en I+D y una competencia potencial, creemos que los activos de Novo en el mercado y la cartera de productos en fase de desarrollo sit\u00faan a la empresa en posici\u00f3n de mantener su liderazgo en obesidad. En particular, las grandes inversiones en capacidad de fabricaci\u00f3n, as\u00ed como los datos de ensayos cl\u00ednicos (SELECT) que sugieren que la p\u00e9rdida de peso con Wegovy puede reducir el riesgo de eventos cardiovasculares (CV), que siguen siendo la primera causa de muerte en todo el mundo, dan a Novo una ventaja competitiva clave, en nuestra opini\u00f3n. M\u00e1s all\u00e1 de la obesidad, Novo sigue innovando en sus \u00e1reas principales (diabetes y enfermedades raras), al tiempo que se ramifica en \u00e1reas adyacentes, diversificando la plataforma y aumentando las oportunidades de crecimiento a largo plazo.\u00bb<\/em><\/p>\n

En cuanto a la situaci\u00f3n real de la econom\u00eda, los analistas de Danske Bank<\/strong> se\u00f1alan:<\/p>\n

\u00abAl igual que otros pa\u00edses europeos, Dinamarca se encuentra esencialmente en un estado de estancamiento econ\u00f3mico, con la \u00fanica salvedad de que el crecimiento del gigante farmac\u00e9utico Novo Nordisk est\u00e1 impulsando al alza los niveles generales de actividad, mientras que gran parte del resto de la industria y la construcci\u00f3n de viviendas se han contra\u00eddo. Esperamos un retorno gradual a un crecimiento de base m\u00e1s amplia en el transcurso de 2024 y 2025, ayudado por los recortes de los tipos de inter\u00e9s y el aumento del consumo privado.\u00bb<\/em><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Nuestros panelistas consideran que el crecimiento del PIB de Dinamarca ser\u00e1 el m\u00e1s alto de Escandinavia este a\u00f1o y el pr\u00f3ximo. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":25,"featured_media":152223,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"editor_notices":[],"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[1695,1704,1812],"class_list":["post-152216","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-uncategorized","tag-gdp","tag-euro-area","tag-inflacion"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nNovo Nordisk seguir\u00e1 impulsando el crecimiento del PIB dan\u00e9s<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Nuestros panelistas consideran que el crecimiento del PIB de Dinamarca ser\u00e1 el mayor de Escandinavia este a\u00f1o y el pr\u00f3ximo.\" class=\"yoast-seo-meta-tag\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow, max-snippet:-1, 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