{"id":152774,"date":"2024-07-22T06:41:33","date_gmt":"2024-07-22T06:41:33","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/focus.s.nomatter.dev\/es\/?p=152774"},"modified":"2025-11-17T18:37:20","modified_gmt":"2025-11-17T18:37:20","slug":"brics-prevision-economica-2030","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/focus.s.nomatter.dev\/es\/blog\/brics-prevision-economica-2030\/","title":{"rendered":"\u00bfCu\u00e1les son las perspectivas econ\u00f3micas a largo plazo de los BRICS?"},"content":{"rendered":"

Leer en ingl\u00e9s<\/em><\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n

En 2024, Egipto, Etiop\u00eda, Ir\u00e1n, Arabia Saud\u00ed y los EAU se unieron a los BRICS. Como resultado, el bloque representa ahora casi un tercio del PIB mundial a precios de mercado en USD. Para profundizar en las perspectivas a largo plazo del bloque en su conjunto y de cada pa\u00eds por separado, puede descargar nuestro \u00faltimo informe especial, que incluye res\u00famenes y gr\u00e1ficos de f\u00e1cil lectura de nuestras principales Previsiones de Consenso hasta 2030.<\/p>\n

\n

\u00bfQu\u00e9 econom\u00eda de los BRICS ser\u00e1 la de mayor crecimiento hasta 2030?<\/h2>\n

Las econom\u00edas de los BRICS seguir\u00e1n siendo heterog\u00e9neas, con marcadas diferencias en su fase y ritmo de desarrollo, as\u00ed como en tama\u00f1o y estructura econ\u00f3mica. India, Egipto y Etiop\u00eda crecer\u00e1n a mayor ritmo, impulsados por su gran potencial de convergencia; China se beneficiar\u00e1 de su sector manufacturero de alta tecnolog\u00eda; y las estrategias de diversificaci\u00f3n no petrolera reforzar\u00e1n la actividad en Arabia Saud\u00ed y los EAU. Por el contrario, Brasil, Ir\u00e1n, Rusia y Sud\u00e1frica crecer\u00e1n a ritmos decepcionantes debido a los mediocres avances de sus reformas estructurales.<\/p>\n

\u00bfSe asienta el bloque BRICS sobre cimientos poco s\u00f3lidos?<\/h2>\n

En los \u00faltimos a\u00f1os, el comercio y la inversi\u00f3n dentro del bloque BRICS han aumentado considerablemente, pero las estructuras formales y los acuerdos multilaterales siguen siendo escasos. Esta situaci\u00f3n persistir\u00e1 tras la reciente ampliaci\u00f3n. La pertenencia a los BRICS facilitar\u00e1 los acuerdos bilaterales, especialmente con China, socio comercial clave de la mayor\u00eda de los miembros y activo inversor internacional. Dicho esto, la base institucional de la organizaci\u00f3n seguir\u00e1 siendo inestable y es poco probable que los acuerdos multilaterales ganen tracci\u00f3n.<\/p>\n

\"brics<\/p>\n

\u00bfConseguir\u00e1n los BRICS reducir su uso del d\u00f3lar estadounidense?<\/h2>\n

La desdolarizaci\u00f3n del sistema financiero mundial ser\u00e1 un objetivo a largo plazo del bloque en medio de las sanciones econ\u00f3micas occidentales a varios miembros. Por ejemplo, Arabia Saud\u00ed y los EAU podr\u00edan enfrentarse a presiones crecientes para vender petr\u00f3leo a China e India en renminbi y rupias, respectivamente, y el comercio en general se realizar\u00e1 cada vez m\u00e1s en las monedas del bloque. No obstante, una moneda com\u00fan de los BRICS sigue siendo pr\u00e1cticamente imposible dados los fuertes v\u00ednculos de los pa\u00edses del Golfo con Occidente y el d\u00f3lar, las grandes disparidades econ\u00f3micas entre los miembros y la fortaleza del sistema financiero occidental.<\/p>\n

Informaci\u00f3n de nuestra red de analistas<\/h2>\n

Sobre el futuro del bloque, los analistas del EIU<\/strong> comentaron:<\/p>\n

\u00abLa expansi\u00f3n reforzar\u00e1 la importancia geopol\u00edtica de los BRICS -siempre que el grupo pueda conciliar sus tensiones internas- y su m\u00fasculo econ\u00f3mico combinado, pero el impacto econ\u00f3mico directo ser\u00e1 peque\u00f1o. Es improbable que el grupo BRICS se convierta en una s\u00f3lida construcci\u00f3n geopol\u00edtica y econ\u00f3mica, independientemente de cu\u00e1ntos ladrillos se a\u00f1adan a la pared\u00bb.<\/em><\/p>\n

Sobre las perspectivas de desdolarizaci\u00f3n, los analistas de ING<\/strong> dijeron<\/p>\n

\u00abA pesar de algunas presiones, el USD sigue siendo la moneda preferente para el comercio. Un mayor papel de los BRICS y otros mercados emergentes en el comercio mundial podr\u00eda crear una demanda m\u00e1s natural de alternativas al USD, pero esto no ha sucedido hasta ahora. La mayor participaci\u00f3n del CNY en la facturaci\u00f3n comercial no parece estar destronando al USD, sino m\u00e1s bien desplazando a las divisas de mercados desarrollados de segundo nivel, como la GBP. Una direcci\u00f3n en la que el USD podr\u00eda verse desafiado dada la confrontaci\u00f3n geopol\u00edtica es la mayor orientaci\u00f3n del comercio de los BRICS hacia otras econom\u00edas de mercado emergentes.\u00bb<\/em><\/p>\n

Nuestro \u00faltimo an\u00e1lisis<\/h2>\n

El crecimiento del PIB chino cay\u00f3 en el segundo trimestre a su nivel m\u00e1s bajo en m\u00e1s de un a\u00f1o, lo que ha suscitado llamamientos a un mayor est\u00edmulo.<\/p>\n

La producci\u00f3n de petr\u00f3leo de Arabia Saud\u00ed volvi\u00f3 a disminuir en junio, a medida que los recortes de producci\u00f3n de la OPEP+ segu\u00edan haciendo mella.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

Informe especial: BRICS 2030<\/h2>\n

Descargue este nuevo informe especial sobre las perspectivas a largo plazo de las econom\u00edas de los BRICS:<\/p>\n

\"brics-2030-focuseconomics\"<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Leer en ingl\u00e9s En 2024, Egipto, Etiop\u00eda, Ir\u00e1n, Arabia Saud\u00ed y los EAU se unieron a los BRICS. Como resultado, el bloque representa ahora casi un tercio del PIB mundial a precios de mercado en USD. Para profundizar en las perspectivas a largo plazo del bloque en su conjunto y de cada pa\u00eds por separado,<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"editor_notices":[],"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[1728,1806,1862],"class_list":["post-152774","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized","tag-commodities","tag-brics","tag-deuda-publica"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\n\u00bfCu\u00e1les son las perspectivas econ\u00f3micas a largo plazo de los BRICS? - FocusEconomics [ES]<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"es_ES\" class=\"yoast-seo-meta-tag\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" class=\"yoast-seo-meta-tag\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"\u00bfCu\u00e1les son las perspectivas econ\u00f3micas a largo plazo de los BRICS?\" class=\"yoast-seo-meta-tag\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Leer en ingl\u00e9s En 2024, Egipto, Etiop\u00eda, Ir\u00e1n, Arabia Saud\u00ed y los EAU se unieron a los BRICS. 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