{"id":48985,"date":"2023-04-13T11:21:55","date_gmt":"2023-04-13T11:21:55","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/focus.s.nomatter.dev\/blog\/as-cop27-rumbles-on-which-regional-economy-will-be-most-affected-by-climate-change-copy"},"modified":"2023-07-12T00:02:52","modified_gmt":"2023-07-12T00:02:52","slug":"our-analysts-expectations-for-2023","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/focus.s.nomatter.dev\/es\/blog\/our-analysts-expectations-for-2023\/","title":{"rendered":"Expectativas de nuestros analistas para 2023"},"content":{"rendered":"

Leves desaceleraciones econ\u00f3micas en EE.UU. y la zona euro:<\/strong>
\nEl consenso entre las instituciones encuestadas es que tanto EE.UU. como la zona euro se contraer\u00e1n secuencialmente en el primer trimestre de 2023 y en el cuarto trimestre de 2023, respectivamente. Sin embargo, en ambos casos se prev\u00e9 que los descensos sean leves, dada la solidez de los mercados laborales y los indicios de que la inflaci\u00f3n est\u00e1 bajando, lo que aliviar\u00e1 la carga sobre los consumidores y reducir\u00e1 la necesidad de un endurecimiento monetario agresivo.<\/p>\n

\"GDP<\/p>\n

Aceleraci\u00f3n del impulso en China, aunque las perspectivas a corto plazo son agitadas:<\/strong>
\nEl r\u00e1pido desmantelamiento de las restricciones Covid-19 en China en las \u00faltimas semanas es un buen augurio para la actividad econ\u00f3mica en el segundo semestre de 2023. Sin embargo, es probable que el impulso en el 1T se vea limitado por una oleada de infecciones que provocan cautela entre los consumidores y absentismo laboral. A mediados de diciembre, por ejemplo, las calles de Pek\u00edn estaban pr\u00e1cticamente vac\u00edas, ya que la gente enfermaba y buscaba refugio del virus. Si las muertes aumentan r\u00e1pidamente, existe tambi\u00e9n la posibilidad de que se reanuden algunas restricciones, lo que perjudicar\u00eda la actividad econ\u00f3mica. El consenso entre nuestros analistas es que el crecimiento anual del PIB se acelere<\/a> del 3,0% en el primer trimestre de 2023 al 4,8% en el cuarto trimestre de 2023.<\/p>\n

El precio medio del petr\u00f3leo superar\u00e1 los 90 d\u00f3lares por barril:<\/strong>
\nSe espera que la recuperaci\u00f3n de China y el endurecimiento de la oferta de petr\u00f3leo a medida que se reduzca la oferta rusa hagan que los precios del crudo Brent<\/a> se sit\u00faen en torno a los 93 USD por barril de media el a\u00f1o pr\u00f3ximo, frente a su nivel actual ligeramente superior a 80 USD por barril. Esto es un buen augurio para las econom\u00edas exportadoras de petr\u00f3leo, pero contribuir\u00e1 a una inflaci\u00f3n mundial relativamente alta en t\u00e9rminos hist\u00f3ricos. Habr\u00e1 que estar atentos a las decisiones de producci\u00f3n de la OPEP, a una posible renovaci\u00f3n del acuerdo nuclear iran\u00ed, a la inestabilidad de Irak y Libia, importantes exportadores de petr\u00f3leo, y a las sanciones estadounidenses sobre el suministro de petr\u00f3leo venezolano.<\/p>\n

El d\u00f3lar estadounidense se mantendr\u00e1 cerca de su nivel actual:<\/strong>
\nTras una incesante marcha alcista hasta finales de septiembre, el d\u00f3lar estadounidense se ha depreciado notablemente desde entonces frente a otras divisas, ya que la inflaci\u00f3n estadounidense, inferior a la prevista, hizo albergar al mercado esperanzas de un endurecimiento menos agresivo de la Reserva Federal en el futuro. Por ejemplo, el d\u00f3lar pas\u00f3 de estar por debajo de la paridad con el euro a un tipo de cambio de 1,06 d\u00f3lares por euro a mediados de diciembre. Nuestros analistas consideran que el d\u00f3lar terminar\u00e1 el a\u00f1o pr\u00f3ximo cerca de su nivel actual. Las tensiones geopol\u00edticas y el ritmo de las subidas de la Fed en relaci\u00f3n con las de otros bancos centrales tendr\u00e1n una influencia clave en el d\u00f3lar el a\u00f1o que viene.<\/p>\n

Informes de nuestra red de analistas<\/h3>\n

Sobre China, los analistas de Nomura<\/strong> afirman:<\/p>\n

\u00abConsideramos que la llegada de inmigrantes en torno a las vacaciones del A\u00f1o Nuevo chino, a finales de enero, podr\u00eda provocar una propagaci\u00f3n sin precedentes del Covid y graves trastornos en la econom\u00eda. A pesar de los considerables recursos dedicados a la pol\u00edtica de mano dura contra el Covid durante los dos \u00faltimos a\u00f1os, China no parece estar bien preparada para una oleada masiva de infecciones por Covid, y puede que tenga que pagar un alto precio por su dilaci\u00f3n a la hora de adoptar un enfoque de \u00abvivir con Covid\u00bb. En nuestra opini\u00f3n, acabar con Covid cero es necesario e inevitable; es la condici\u00f3n previa para una recuperaci\u00f3n del crecimiento en 2023, y elevamos nuestra previsi\u00f3n de crecimiento para 2023 al 4,8% desde el 4,0% de hace una semana por el repentino y dr\u00e1stico cambio. Sin embargo, seguimos advirtiendo que el camino hacia una reapertura total puede ser a\u00fan doloroso y lleno de baches.\u00bb<\/em><\/p>\n

En cuanto a la recesi\u00f3n en Occidente, Carsten Brzeski, de ING, <\/strong>afirm\u00f3:<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u00abDeber\u00edamos tener una recesi\u00f3n al estilo de los libros de texto en EE.UU., con el banco central subiendo los tipos hasta que los mercados inmobiliario y laboral empiecen a debilitarse, la inflaci\u00f3n baje y la Reserva Federal pueda volver a recortar los tipos de inter\u00e9s. […] esperamos un final del ciclo t\u00edpico en la eurozona, donde una leve recesi\u00f3n ir\u00e1 seguida de un crecimiento muy moderado, con riesgo de \u00abdoble ca\u00edda\u00bb, ya que la regi\u00f3n tiene que hacer frente a muchos retos estructurales y transiciones\u00bb.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Leves desaceleraciones econ\u00f3micas en EE.UU. y la zona euro: El consenso entre las instituciones encuestadas es que tanto EE.UU. como la zona euro se contraer\u00e1n secuencialmente en el primer trimestre de 2023 y en el cuarto trimestre de 2023, respectivamente. Sin embargo, en ambos casos se prev\u00e9 que los descensos sean leves, dada la solidez<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":7,"featured_media":48923,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"editor_notices":[],"footnotes":""},"categories":[1702],"tags":[1694,1695,1704,1709],"class_list":["post-48985","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-newsletters","tag-china","tag-gdp","tag-euro-area","tag-united-states"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nExpectativas de nuestros analistas para 2023 - FocusEconomics [ES]<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"In our latest insight piece, we look at some of our key 2023 forecasts. 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