{"id":49615,"date":"2023-04-13T08:57:17","date_gmt":"2023-04-13T08:57:17","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/focus.s.nomatter.dev\/?p=49615"},"modified":"2023-07-12T00:10:17","modified_gmt":"2023-07-12T00:10:17","slug":"whats-in-store-for-russia-economy-this-year","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/focus.s.nomatter.dev\/es\/blog\/whats-in-store-for-russia-economy-this-year\/","title":{"rendered":"\u00bfQu\u00e9 le espera a la econom\u00eda rusa este a\u00f1o?"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

En nuestro \u00faltimo art\u00edculo de opini\u00f3n, analizamos lo que le espera a la econom\u00eda rusa este a\u00f1o en medio del recrudecimiento de las sanciones occidentales.<\/em><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Hasta ahora, Rusia ha capeado el impacto econ\u00f3mico de la guerra y las sanciones mejor de lo que preve\u00edan incluso nuestros analistas m\u00e1s optimistas a principios del a\u00f1o pasado. El PIB caer\u00e1 probablemente un 3,6% en 2022, muy lejos de la ca\u00edda del 10,2% prevista en nuestro informe de mayo de 2022. M\u00faltiples factores explican este comportamiento sorprendentemente robusto. En particular, los elevad\u00edsimos precios de la energ\u00eda han impulsado las arcas p\u00fablicas y han permitido la generosidad fiscal. Por otra parte, el Banco Central ha logrado estabilizar el rublo, reduciendo la inflaci\u00f3n, y en los \u00faltimos meses ha recortado su tipo de inter\u00e9s oficial por debajo de los niveles de 2021. El bajo nivel de desempleo y la reorientaci\u00f3n de la industria manufacturera hacia la producci\u00f3n militar tambi\u00e9n han servido de apoyo.<\/p>\n

En 2023, vemos m\u00e1s de lo mismo: un declive econ\u00f3mico continuado, como el aire que se desinfla gradualmente de un globo, pero sin un colapso a gran escala. El consenso entre nuestros analistas es de una contracci\u00f3n del 3,0%. El sector energ\u00e9tico se ver\u00e1 afectado por la prohibici\u00f3n impuesta por la UE a las exportaciones de petr\u00f3leo ruso y por la limitaci\u00f3n del precio del petr\u00f3leo impuesta por el G7, as\u00ed como por las menores exportaciones de gas natural a Europa. Sin embargo, el abanico de previsiones de nuestros analistas es enorme: la m\u00e1s optimista prev\u00e9 una expansi\u00f3n del 0,8%, y la m\u00e1s pesimista, una ca\u00edda del 12,3%.<\/p>\n

Como era de esperar, la guerra de Ucrania ser\u00e1 el factor determinante de las perspectivas. Si Rusia se ve obligada a llamar a filas a m\u00e1s tropas, es probable que ello desencadene la emigraci\u00f3n y reduzca el tama\u00f1o del mercado de consumo; se calcula que cientos de miles de rusos huyeron del pa\u00eds tras la movilizaci\u00f3n parcial de septiembre de 2022, por ejemplo. Por otro lado, un alto el fuego<\/a> ser\u00eda positivo para el crecimiento, ya que probablemente llevar\u00eda a algunos rusos a regresar a casa y reducir\u00eda la interrupci\u00f3n del comercio.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\"Russia's<\/p>\n

Una escalada del conflicto -como el uso de armas nucleares t\u00e1cticas o ataques en territorio de la OTAN- supondr\u00eda el riesgo de una guerra total con Occidente y un da\u00f1o econ\u00f3mico potencialmente enorme. Aunque en un escenario tan apocal\u00edptico, el descenso del PIB<\/a> ser\u00eda la menor de las preocupaciones.<\/p>\n

Informes de nuestra red de analistas<\/h3>\n

Sobre las perspectivas a corto plazo de Rusia, los analistas de Goldman Sachs<\/strong> afirman:<\/p>\n

\u00abCreemos que el crecimiento anual seguir\u00e1 siendo negativo hasta mediados de 2023, aunque secuencialmente el crecimiento probablemente ser\u00e1 relativamente plano con una demanda interna apoyada por un impulso fiscal y una normalizaci\u00f3n de las tasas de ahorro del sector privado, mientras que las exportaciones netas probablemente seguir\u00e1n contribuyendo negativamente a medida que las importaciones se recuperen. Prevemos un crecimiento superior al consenso del -3,3% para 2022 y del -1,3% para 2023\u00bb.<\/em><\/p>\n

En cuanto a las perspectivas econ\u00f3micas a m\u00e1s largo plazo, los analistas de EIU<\/strong> se\u00f1alaron:<\/p>\n

\u00abLa capacidad fiscal de Rusia se tensar\u00e1 en 2023. Los elevados costes de la guerra y las sanciones sobre la econom\u00eda ejercer\u00e1n presi\u00f3n sobre el presupuesto federal. Para mantener el apoyo social, el Gobierno empezar\u00e1 a retirar reservas de su Fondo de Riqueza Nacional. Esperamos que Rusia sea la econom\u00eda del G20 con peores resultados en 2023 y una de las de peores resultados a escala mundial. El impacto de las sanciones retrasar\u00e1 la recuperaci\u00f3n econ\u00f3mica; esperamos que el PIB real no recupere los niveles de 2021 hasta 2029 (como pronto).\u00bb<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

En nuestro \u00faltimo art\u00edculo de opini\u00f3n, analizamos lo que le espera a la econom\u00eda rusa este a\u00f1o en medio del recrudecimiento de las sanciones occidentales.   Hasta ahora, Rusia ha capeado el impacto econ\u00f3mico de la guerra y las sanciones mejor de lo que preve\u00edan incluso nuestros analistas m\u00e1s optimistas a principios del a\u00f1o pasado.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":7,"featured_media":48889,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"editor_notices":[],"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[1695,1740],"class_list":["post-49615","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-uncategorized","tag-gdp","tag-russia"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\n% % - FocusEconomics [ES] %<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"In our latest insight piece, we look at what is in store for Russia this year amid the cranking-up of Western sanctions.\" class=\"yoast-seo-meta-tag\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"es_ES\" class=\"yoast-seo-meta-tag\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" class=\"yoast-seo-meta-tag\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"\u00bfQu\u00e9 le espera a la econom\u00eda rusa este a\u00f1o?\" class=\"yoast-seo-meta-tag\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"In our latest insight piece, we look at what is in store for Russia this year amid the cranking-up of Western sanctions.\" class=\"yoast-seo-meta-tag\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/focus.s.nomatter.dev\/es\/blog\/whats-in-store-for-russia-economy-this-year\/\" class=\"yoast-seo-meta-tag\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"FocusEconomics [ES]\" class=\"yoast-seo-meta-tag\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/FocusEconomics\" class=\"yoast-seo-meta-tag\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2023-04-13T08:57:17+00:00\" class=\"yoast-seo-meta-tag\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2023-07-12T00:10:17+00:00\" class=\"yoast-seo-meta-tag\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/focus.nm-img.net\/uploads\/sites\/5\/2022\/12\/random-institute-0PsefHRQr8g-unsplash-scaled.jpg\" class=\"yoast-seo-meta-tag\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"2560\" class=\"yoast-seo-meta-tag\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"1707\" class=\"yoast-seo-meta-tag\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" class=\"yoast-seo-meta-tag\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Sibel A\u011flamaz\" class=\"yoast-seo-meta-tag\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" class=\"yoast-seo-meta-tag\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:creator\" content=\"@FocusEconomics\" class=\"yoast-seo-meta-tag\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@FocusEconomics\" class=\"yoast-seo-meta-tag\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Escrito por\" class=\"yoast-seo-meta-tag\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Sibel A\u011flamaz\" class=\"yoast-seo-meta-tag\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Tiempo de lectura\" class=\"yoast-seo-meta-tag\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"3 minutos\" class=\"yoast-seo-meta-tag\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/focus.s.nomatter.dev\/es\/blog\/whats-in-store-for-russia-economy-this-year\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/focus.s.nomatter.dev\/es\/blog\/whats-in-store-for-russia-economy-this-year\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Sibel A\u011flamaz\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/focus.s.nomatter.dev\/es\/#\/schema\/person\/74ccc4de3a3df5da86a5bd7d82f542bc\"},\"headline\":\"\u00bfQu\u00e9 le espera a la econom\u00eda rusa este a\u00f1o?\",\"datePublished\":\"2023-04-13T08:57:17+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2023-07-12T00:10:17+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/focus.s.nomatter.dev\/es\/blog\/whats-in-store-for-russia-economy-this-year\/\"},\"wordCount\":654,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/focus.s.nomatter.dev\/es\/#organization\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/focus.s.nomatter.dev\/es\/blog\/whats-in-store-for-russia-economy-this-year\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\/\/focus-stg.nm-img.net\/uploads\/sites\/5\/2022\/12\/random-institute-0PsefHRQr8g-unsplash-scaled.jpg\",\"keywords\":[\"GDP\",\"Russia\"],\"articleSection\":[\"Uncategorized\"],\"inLanguage\":\"es\"},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/focus.s.nomatter.dev\/es\/blog\/whats-in-store-for-russia-economy-this-year\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/focus.s.nomatter.dev\/es\/blog\/whats-in-store-for-russia-economy-this-year\/\",\"name\":\"% % - 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