{"id":50058,"date":"2023-04-13T08:49:13","date_gmt":"2023-04-13T08:49:13","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/focus.s.nomatter.dev\/blog\/what-is-the-outlook-for-u-s-oil-production-and-prices-copy"},"modified":"2023-07-12T00:12:20","modified_gmt":"2023-07-12T00:12:20","slug":"how-will-brazils-economy-perform-under-lula","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/focus.s.nomatter.dev\/es\/blog\/how-will-brazils-economy-perform-under-lula\/","title":{"rendered":"\u00bfC\u00f3mo se comportar\u00e1 la econom\u00eda brasile\u00f1a bajo Lula?"},"content":{"rendered":"

Lula da Silva asumi\u00f3 en enero su tercer mandato<\/a> como Presidente de Brasil. Podr\u00eda decirse que su anterior mandato fue un \u00e9xito econ\u00f3mico relativo: Durante su mandato (2002-2010), el PIB creci\u00f3 una media del 4%, se redujo la proporci\u00f3n entre deuda p\u00fablica y PIB, el d\u00e9ficit fiscal se mantuvo dentro de l\u00edmites razonables y millones de personas salieron de la pobreza.<\/p>\n

En el futuro habr\u00e1 algunas similitudes con aquellos a\u00f1os de euforia. Lula volver\u00e1 a dar prioridad al gasto social; espera relanzar su emblem\u00e1tico programa de transferencias monetarias Bolsa Familia en los pr\u00f3ximos meses. Y es probable que combine este objetivo con la prudencia fiscal para mantener a los inversores de su lado.<\/p>\n

Pero los paralelismos con la d\u00e9cada de 2000 terminan aqu\u00ed. Para empezar, la impresionante expansi\u00f3n de Brasil durante los dos primeros mandatos de Lula estuvo impulsada en parte por un prolongado superciclo de materias primas; no se espera un superciclo semejante en los pr\u00f3ximos a\u00f1os, ya que los precios de las principales materias primas de exportaci\u00f3n de Brasil -como el petr\u00f3leo, el hierro, la soja y el az\u00facar- disminuir\u00e1n durante nuestro horizonte de previsi\u00f3n tras un 2022 excepcional.<\/p>\n

Adem\u00e1s, el ratio deuda p\u00fablica\/PIB es unos 15 puntos porcentuales superior a la media de 2002-2010, el d\u00e9ficit presupuestario es mucho mayor y las calificaciones crediticias soberanas son m\u00e1s d\u00e9biles. Como resultado, el Gobierno tiene menos margen de maniobra fiscal, y los mercados estar\u00e1n muy atentos a las se\u00f1ales de que el nuevo Gobierno se toma en serio la responsabilidad fiscal. En este sentido, ser\u00e1 clave el nuevo conjunto de normas fiscales que se anunciar\u00e1 a finales de este a\u00f1o.<\/p>\n

Adem\u00e1s, tras a\u00f1os de malestar econ\u00f3mico, una pandemia y el mandato divisivo de Bolsonaro, las tensiones sociopol\u00edticas son mayores que en d\u00e9cadas pasadas, como demostraron los partidarios del ex presidente que irrumpieron en las oficinas del gobierno en enero. Estas tensiones podr\u00edan traducirse en m\u00e1s violencia callejera y bloqueo legislativo, y es probable que limiten la inversi\u00f3n.<\/p>\n

El resultado es que se espera que el crecimiento econ\u00f3mico de Brasil sea el segundo m\u00e1s d\u00e9bil de Am\u00e9rica Latina este a\u00f1o<\/a>, s\u00f3lo por delante del de Argentina. Y el crecimiento durante los cuatro a\u00f1os del mandato de Lula se considera inferior a la media regional, frenado por grandes ineficiencias econ\u00f3micas. Como consecuencia de este lento impulso y del mayor gasto social, el Consenso entre nuestros analistas es que la deuda p\u00fablica seguir\u00e1 aumentando sin remisi\u00f3n. Brasil puede tener un nuevo presidente, pero sus problemas econ\u00f3micos anteriores no van a desaparecer.<\/p>\n

Informes de nuestra red de analistas<\/h3>\n

En cuanto a las perspectivas pol\u00edticas, la EIU<\/strong> afirm\u00f3:<\/p>\n

\u00abLa postura pragm\u00e1tica de Lula hasta ahora ha permitido conversaciones fruct\u00edferas con los partidos centristas, y una probable mayor\u00eda legislativa de trabajo permitir\u00e1 al pr\u00f3ximo gobierno avanzar en parte de su agenda, incluyendo la obtenci\u00f3n de la aprobaci\u00f3n legislativa de nuevas normas fiscales para dar cabida a mayores gastos heredados del Sr. Bolsonaro y las propias propuestas de Lula para aumentar el gasto social. Otra prioridad para el pr\u00f3ximo a\u00f1o del nuevo ministro de Hacienda, Fernando Haddad (viejo aliado de Lula), ser\u00e1 aprobar una reforma fiscal. […] Si el nuevo gobierno no se compromete con la responsabilidad fiscal, lo que representa un grave riesgo para nuestra previsi\u00f3n de una orientaci\u00f3n fiscal expansiva relativamente moderada, el banco central probablemente reanudar\u00e1 el endurecimiento monetario.\u00bb<\/em><\/p>\n

En cuanto a las perspectivas econ\u00f3micas a corto plazo, Alberto Ramos, de Goldman Sachs<\/strong>, afirm\u00f3:<\/p>\n

\u00abEsperamos que la actividad real siga siendo d\u00e9bil durante el primer semestre de 2023, debido a una serie de obst\u00e1culos internos y externos al crecimiento. […] La disminuci\u00f3n de los rendimientos marginales de la din\u00e1mica de reapertura econ\u00f3mica, las estrictas condiciones monetarias y financieras internas, los altos niveles de endeudamiento de los hogares, los bajos niveles de holgura econ\u00f3mica (incluido un mercado laboral con la tasa de desempleo en la NAIRU), la moderaci\u00f3n de la creaci\u00f3n de empleo, el deterioro de la comodidad de los consumidores y las empresas, y el incipiente cambio de tendencia en el ciclo crediticio se espera que generen vientos en contra de la actividad de los servicios.\u00bb<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Lula da Silva asumi\u00f3 en enero su tercer mandato como Presidente de Brasil. Podr\u00eda decirse que su anterior mandato fue un \u00e9xito econ\u00f3mico relativo: Durante su mandato (2002-2010), el PIB creci\u00f3 una media del 4%, se redujo la proporci\u00f3n entre deuda p\u00fablica y PIB, el d\u00e9ficit fiscal se mantuvo dentro de l\u00edmites razonables y millones<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":7,"featured_media":26504,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"editor_notices":[],"footnotes":""},"categories":[1702],"tags":[1695,1750],"class_list":["post-50058","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-newsletters","tag-gdp","tag-brazil"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\n\u00bfC\u00f3mo se comportar\u00e1 la econom\u00eda brasile\u00f1a bajo Lula? - FocusEconomics [ES]<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"In this insight piece, we examine the likely trajectory of Brazil\u2019s economy under new president Lula da Silva.\" class=\"yoast-seo-meta-tag\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"es_ES\" class=\"yoast-seo-meta-tag\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" class=\"yoast-seo-meta-tag\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"\u00bfC\u00f3mo se comportar\u00e1 la econom\u00eda brasile\u00f1a bajo Lula?\" class=\"yoast-seo-meta-tag\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"In this insight piece, we examine the likely trajectory of Brazil\u2019s economy under new president Lula da Silva.\" class=\"yoast-seo-meta-tag\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/focus.s.nomatter.dev\/es\/blog\/how-will-brazils-economy-perform-under-lula\/\" class=\"yoast-seo-meta-tag\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"FocusEconomics [ES]\" class=\"yoast-seo-meta-tag\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/FocusEconomics\" class=\"yoast-seo-meta-tag\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2023-04-13T08:49:13+00:00\" class=\"yoast-seo-meta-tag\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2023-07-12T00:12:20+00:00\" class=\"yoast-seo-meta-tag\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/focus.nm-img.net\/uploads\/sites\/5\/2022\/11\/Brazil-scaled.jpg\" class=\"yoast-seo-meta-tag\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"2560\" class=\"yoast-seo-meta-tag\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"671\" class=\"yoast-seo-meta-tag\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" class=\"yoast-seo-meta-tag\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Sibel A\u011flamaz\" class=\"yoast-seo-meta-tag\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" class=\"yoast-seo-meta-tag\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:creator\" content=\"@FocusEconomics\" class=\"yoast-seo-meta-tag\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@FocusEconomics\" class=\"yoast-seo-meta-tag\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Escrito por\" class=\"yoast-seo-meta-tag\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Sibel A\u011flamaz\" class=\"yoast-seo-meta-tag\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Tiempo de lectura\" class=\"yoast-seo-meta-tag\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"3 minutos\" class=\"yoast-seo-meta-tag\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/focus.s.nomatter.dev\/es\/blog\/how-will-brazils-economy-perform-under-lula\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/focus.s.nomatter.dev\/es\/blog\/how-will-brazils-economy-perform-under-lula\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Sibel A\u011flamaz\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/focus.s.nomatter.dev\/es\/#\/schema\/person\/74ccc4de3a3df5da86a5bd7d82f542bc\"},\"headline\":\"\u00bfC\u00f3mo se comportar\u00e1 la econom\u00eda brasile\u00f1a bajo Lula?\",\"datePublished\":\"2023-04-13T08:49:13+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2023-07-12T00:12:20+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/focus.s.nomatter.dev\/es\/blog\/how-will-brazils-economy-perform-under-lula\/\"},\"wordCount\":753,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/focus.s.nomatter.dev\/es\/#organization\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/focus.s.nomatter.dev\/es\/blog\/how-will-brazils-economy-perform-under-lula\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\/\/focus-stg.nm-img.net\/uploads\/sites\/5\/2022\/11\/Brazil-scaled.jpg\",\"keywords\":[\"GDP\",\"Brazil\"],\"articleSection\":[\"Newsletters\"],\"inLanguage\":\"es\"},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/focus.s.nomatter.dev\/es\/blog\/how-will-brazils-economy-perform-under-lula\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/focus.s.nomatter.dev\/es\/blog\/how-will-brazils-economy-perform-under-lula\/\",\"name\":\"\u00bfC\u00f3mo se comportar\u00e1 la econom\u00eda brasile\u00f1a bajo Lula? 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