{"id":50079,"date":"2023-04-13T08:46:33","date_gmt":"2023-04-13T08:46:33","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/focus.s.nomatter.dev\/?p=50079"},"modified":"2023-05-30T12:44:46","modified_gmt":"2023-05-30T12:44:46","slug":"the-pension-reform-for-french-fiscal-metrics","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/focus.s.nomatter.dev\/es\/blog\/the-pension-reform-for-french-fiscal-metrics\/","title":{"rendered":"La reforma de las pensiones para la m\u00e9trica fiscal francesa"},"content":{"rendered":"

En medio de las mayores huelgas desde 1995, examinamos si la reforma de las pensiones del presidente franc\u00e9s Macron es inevitable<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Desde que el Gobierno franc\u00e9s desvel\u00f3 su plan para aumentar la edad de jubilaci\u00f3n de 62 a 64 a\u00f1os a principios de enero, han estallado las huelgas. 1,3 millones de personas participaron en la \u00faltima manifestaci\u00f3n del 31 de enero, la mayor desde 1995.<\/p>\n

Las huelgas podr\u00edan obligar al gobierno a modificar o incluso abandonar sus reformas. Seg\u00fan el gobierno, urge reformar el sistema de pensiones para garantizar la sostenibilidad a largo plazo del gasto en pensiones a medida que disminuye la proporci\u00f3n de trabajadores en activo con respecto a los jubilados.<\/p>\n

La reforma consiste ante todo en colmar el d\u00e9ficit anual entre las cotizaciones y el gasto en pensiones. Tras registrar un super\u00e1vit en 2021 y 2022, se prev\u00e9 que el sistema de pensiones entre en d\u00e9ficit a partir de 2023. Ese d\u00e9ficit alcanzar\u00e1 los 13.500 millones de euros en 2030, seg\u00fan el COR, organismo p\u00fablico franc\u00e9s encargado de supervisar el sistema de pensiones. As\u00ed, entre 2023 y 2030, el d\u00e9ficit acumulado de las pensiones alcanzar\u00eda entre 60.000 y 80.000 millones de euros. Como respuesta, la reforma del Gobierno ofrecer\u00eda 18.000 millones de euros anuales de espacio fiscal de aqu\u00ed a 2030.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Sin embargo, nuestras Previsiones de Consenso arrojan dudas sobre la necesidad de la reforma. Durante varios meses antes de que se anunciara la reforma, el Consenso de nuestro panel de analistas era que el d\u00e9ficit fiscal franc\u00e9s disminuir\u00eda gradualmente y que el ratio deuda\/PIB oscilar\u00eda entre el 112% y el 115% a lo largo de nuestro horizonte de previsi\u00f3n hasta 2027.<\/p>\n

Los detractores argumentan que la elecci\u00f3n de cubrir el d\u00e9ficit es una decisi\u00f3n pol\u00edtica m\u00e1s que vital; Macron espera seguir siendo visto como un reformista en su segundo mandato. Este argumento se ve respaldado en parte por nuestras previsiones, que han sugerido sistem\u00e1ticamente en los \u00faltimos meses que el d\u00e9ficit fiscal y el ratio deuda\/PIB no se descontrolar\u00e1n en los pr\u00f3ximos a\u00f1os. Adem\u00e1s, los entre 7.000 y 8.000 millones de euros de costes de refinanciaci\u00f3n del d\u00e9ficit de las pensiones de aqu\u00ed a 2030 parecen insignificantes en comparaci\u00f3n con los 165.000 millones de euros de deuda emitidos en menos de dos a\u00f1os para responder a Covid-19 y los 100.000 millones de euros en medidas de mitigaci\u00f3n de los costes energ\u00e9ticos gastados desde el estallido de la guerra entre Rusia y Ucrania<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Opiniones de nuestra red de analistas<\/h3>\n

Thomas Gillet, director asociado de Scope Ratings<\/strong>, coment\u00f3:<\/p>\n

\u00abLa subida de los tipos de inter\u00e9s y el endurecimiento previsto de la pol\u00edtica monetaria del BCE son motores m\u00e1s importantes del gasto p\u00fablico en Francia (AA\/Estable) en los pr\u00f3ximos a\u00f1os que el d\u00e9ficit de las pensiones. […] La deuda p\u00fablica en relaci\u00f3n con el PIB aumentar\u00eda probablemente entre 2,5 y 3,0 puntos porcentuales de aqu\u00ed a 2030, en caso de que la Asamblea Nacional francesa no apruebe la reforma o de que el Gobierno la retire ante la oposici\u00f3n de los sindicatos.\u00bb<\/em><\/p>\n

Descargo de responsabilidad: Los puntos de vista y opiniones expresados en este art\u00edculo son los de los autores y no reflejan necesariamente la opini\u00f3n de FocusEconomics S.L.U. Los puntos de vista, previsiones o estimaciones se refieren a la fecha de la publicaci\u00f3n y est\u00e1n sujetos a cambios sin previo aviso. Este informe puede proporcionar direcciones o contener hiperv\u00ednculos a otros sitios web de Internet. FocusEconomics S.L.U. no se hace responsable de los contenidos de los sitios web de terceros.<\/em><\/p>\n

Fecha: 3 de febrero de 2023<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

En medio de las mayores huelgas desde 1995, examinamos si la reforma de las pensiones del presidente franc\u00e9s Macron es inevitable. Desde que el Gobierno franc\u00e9s desvel\u00f3 su plan para aumentar la edad de jubilaci\u00f3n de 62 a 64 a\u00f1os a principios de enero, han estallado las huelgas. 1,3 millones de personas participaron en la<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":13,"featured_media":45362,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"editor_notices":[],"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[1751,1752],"class_list":["post-50079","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-uncategorized","tag-france","tag-reforms"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nLa reforma de las pensiones para la m\u00e9trica fiscal francesa - FocusEconomics [ES]<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"We examine whether French President Macron\u2019s pension reform is inevitable. 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