{"id":50488,"date":"2023-04-13T08:38:16","date_gmt":"2023-04-13T08:38:16","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/focus.s.nomatter.dev\/blog\/how-necessary-is-the-pension-reform-for-french-fiscal-metrics-2-copy"},"modified":"2023-07-12T00:13:41","modified_gmt":"2023-07-12T00:13:41","slug":"what-will-happen-to-the-u-s-economy-if-congress-fails-to-raise-the-debt-ceiling","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/focus.s.nomatter.dev\/es\/blog\/what-will-happen-to-the-u-s-economy-if-congress-fails-to-raise-the-debt-ceiling\/","title":{"rendered":"\u00bfQu\u00e9 pasar\u00e1 con la econom\u00eda estadounidense?"},"content":{"rendered":"

\u00bfQu\u00e9 pasar\u00e1 con la econom\u00eda estadounidense si el Congreso no consigue elevar el techo de deuda?<\/strong><\/p>\n

El Gobierno estadounidense alcanz\u00f3 oficialmente su l\u00edmite de endeudamiento de 31,4 billones de d\u00f3lares el 19 de enero<\/a>, aunque una serie de \u00abmedidas extraordinarias\u00bb deber\u00edan permitir a la Administraci\u00f3n salir adelante al menos hasta junio, antes de que las restricciones de endeudamiento se hagan sentir. Por ahora, los mercados financieros se muestran optimistas: el \u00edndice burs\u00e1til S&P 500 ha subido en lo que va de a\u00f1o y los rendimientos de los bonos del Tesoro a 10 a\u00f1os se han mantenido estables. Estados Unidos nunca ha incumplido intencionadamente el pago de su deuda, y los enfrentamientos hist\u00f3ricos en torno al l\u00edmite de endeudamiento siempre han acabado con un parpadeo de los republicanos o de los dem\u00f3cratas.<\/p>\n

Sin embargo, el riesgo de un estancamiento prolongado en el Congreso parece mayor esta vez debido a la polarizaci\u00f3n del panorama pol\u00edtico. El propio presidente republicano de la C\u00e1mara, McCarthy, s\u00f3lo fue elegido para el cargo tras 15 votaciones entre los miembros de su partido, y prometi\u00f3 duros recortes del gasto p\u00fablico para asegurarse el apoyo de los republicanos de extrema derecha; los dem\u00f3cratas rechazan de plano tales recortes.<\/p>\n

Si no se llega a un acuerdo para elevar el techo de deuda, el Gobierno se ver\u00e1 obligado a recortar el gasto para igualar los ingresos una vez que las \u00abmedidas extraordinarias\u00bb del Tesoro sigan su curso. Con el consenso entre nuestros panelistas para un d\u00e9ficit fiscal en 2023 de casi el 5% del PIB<\/a>, esto arrancar\u00eda una enorme cantidad de gasto p\u00fablico de la econom\u00eda pr\u00e1cticamente de la noche a la ma\u00f1ana. Probablemente se producir\u00eda una combinaci\u00f3n de suspensi\u00f3n de empleo, fuertes recortes del gasto federal, un impago de la deuda p\u00fablica, rebajas de la calificaci\u00f3n crediticia, ca\u00eddas del mercado burs\u00e1til y subida de los tipos de inter\u00e9s, y el impacto se magnificar\u00eda cuanto m\u00e1s tiempo permaneciera sin resolverse la disputa sobre el techo de la deuda.<\/p>\n

Las autoridades podr\u00edan tomar medidas para mitigar los da\u00f1os. El Gobierno podr\u00eda intentar priorizar ciertos gastos, como realizar los pagos de los bonos a costa de recortar el gasto de los departamentos en un intento de calmar a los mercados financieros. Tambi\u00e9n se ha hablado de que el gobierno deposite en la Reserva Federal una moneda de nueva acu\u00f1aci\u00f3n a cambio de efectivo, o que canjee los bonos en circulaci\u00f3n por otros nuevos \u00abpremium\u00bb con un tipo de inter\u00e9s mucho m\u00e1s alto. Y la Reserva Federal seguramente intervendr\u00eda de una forma u otra; en el pasado, los funcionarios de la Fed han planteado la posibilidad de comprar bonos del Tesoro impagados y vender los no afectados, por ejemplo.<\/p>\n

Sin embargo, ninguna de las opciones del Tesoro evitar\u00eda por completo las consecuencias del atasco del techo de la deuda, y la Reserva Federal se resistir\u00eda a rescatar al Gobierno debido a su preocupaci\u00f3n por la inflaci\u00f3n y la independencia pol\u00edtica. As\u00ed pues, por ahora, la mayor esperanza de que la econom\u00eda salga indemne es que las graves consecuencias del impago acaben por centrar la atenci\u00f3n de los pol\u00edticos, antes de que sea demasiado tarde.<\/p>\n

Informes de nuestra red de analistas<\/h3>\n

En cuanto a las perspectivas, la EIU<\/strong> afirma:<\/p>\n

\u00abEn \u00faltima instancia, esperamos que se alcance un acuerdo para elevar el techo de la deuda, dadas las graves consecuencias de un impago de la deuda estadounidense. El escenario m\u00e1s probable sigue siendo un compromiso de \u00faltima hora, dada la profundidad de las tensiones partidistas en el Congreso. Como resultado, las tensiones sobre el techo de la deuda aumentar\u00e1n la incertidumbre econ\u00f3mica en los pr\u00f3ximos meses y distraer\u00e1n a los legisladores, debilitando la eficacia del gobierno.\u00bb<\/em><\/p>\n

Sobre la intervenci\u00f3n de la Fed, los analistas de ING<\/strong> dijeron<\/p>\n

\u00abLa impresi\u00f3n de la Reserva Federal podr\u00eda emplearse como una red de seguridad […], donde la pol\u00edtica comete un error, y la Fed interviene como pagador de \u00faltimo recurso. La Reserva Federal podr\u00eda racionalizarlo como un medio de proteger el sistema. Ciertamente podr\u00eda suavizar el impacto y, de hecho, podr\u00eda evitar un impago t\u00e9cnico en primer lugar. Sin embargo, no ser\u00eda una soluci\u00f3n estructural. Adem\u00e1s, plantea su propia amenaza independiente para el sistema financiero, ya que el d\u00f3lar estadounidense se ve socavado por la financiaci\u00f3n monetaria de la deuda nacional.\u00bb<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

\u00bfQu\u00e9 pasar\u00e1 con la econom\u00eda estadounidense si el Congreso no consigue elevar el techo de deuda? El Gobierno estadounidense alcanz\u00f3 oficialmente su l\u00edmite de endeudamiento de 31,4 billones de d\u00f3lares el 19 de enero, aunque una serie de \u00abmedidas extraordinarias\u00bb deber\u00edan permitir a la Administraci\u00f3n salir adelante al menos hasta junio, antes de que las<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":7,"featured_media":26667,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"editor_notices":[],"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[1767,1768],"class_list":["post-50488","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-uncategorized","tag-fiscal-balance","tag-major-economies"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\n\u00bfQu\u00e9 pasar\u00e1 con la econom\u00eda estadounidense? - FocusEconomics [ES]<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"In this article, we look at the possible economic fallout if the U.S. Congress fails to raise the debt 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