{"id":50491,"date":"2023-04-13T08:32:49","date_gmt":"2023-04-13T08:32:49","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/focus.s.nomatter.dev\/blog\/what-will-happen-to-the-u-s-economy-if-congress-fails-to-raise-the-debt-ceiling-copy"},"modified":"2023-05-30T11:34:22","modified_gmt":"2023-05-30T11:34:22","slug":"britains-economic-outlook","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/focus.s.nomatter.dev\/es\/blog\/britains-economic-outlook\/","title":{"rendered":"Perspectivas econ\u00f3micas de Gran Breta\u00f1a para 2023"},"content":{"rendered":"

Los peri\u00f3dicos de todo el mundo lo expresan en t\u00e9rminos diferentes. \u00abGran Breta\u00f1a est\u00e1 a punto de convertirse en un caso perdido<\/a>\u00ab, lamentaba The Telegraph. El New York Times lo describ\u00eda como \u00abun cuento con moraleja sobre la autodestrucci\u00f3n del Reino Unido<\/a>\u00ab. El FMI pronostic\u00f3 recientemente que la econom\u00eda brit\u00e1nica se contraer\u00eda un 0,6% en 2023. Eso no s\u00f3lo ser\u00eda peor que todas las dem\u00e1s econom\u00edas del G7, sino tambi\u00e9n que la Rusia en guerra y golpeada por las sanciones. Nuestros panelistas son a\u00fan m\u00e1s pesimistas sobre el Reino Unido que el FMI: Esperan que la econom\u00eda brit\u00e1nica se contraiga un 0,8% este a\u00f1o.<\/p>\n

Nuestras previsiones sugieren que esto se debe en gran parte a un gasto privado m\u00e1s d\u00e9bil. Seg\u00fan nuestros expertos, los consumidores gastar\u00e1n este a\u00f1o un 1% menos que el a\u00f1o pasado. Dado que el gasto de los consumidores representa alrededor del 60% del PIB del Reino Unido, esto supondr\u00eda una contribuci\u00f3n negativa de 0,6 puntos porcentuales al crecimiento de la econom\u00eda brit\u00e1nica el a\u00f1o pr\u00f3ximo. En otras palabras, el debilitamiento del gasto privado ser\u00e1 responsable de aproximadamente el 75% de la recesi\u00f3n del pr\u00f3ximo a\u00f1o.<\/p>\n

\n

\"Economic
Previsiones econ\u00f3micas de FocusEconomics<\/figcaption><\/figure><\/figure>\n

En cambio, se prev\u00e9 que el gasto privado crezca un 0,1% en la zona euro y un 1% en Estados Unidos. Una de las razones por las que Gran Breta\u00f1a prev\u00e9 una ca\u00edda del gasto privado m\u00e1s acusada que la zona euro o Estados Unidos es que la inflaci\u00f3n en Gran Breta\u00f1a ha alcanzado niveles m\u00e1s altos y ha sido m\u00e1s persistente, perjudicando el poder adquisitivo de los hogares. La mayor inflaci\u00f3n se debe a varios factores, como la fuerte dependencia brit\u00e1nica de las importaciones de energ\u00eda y su repentina reapertura tras Covid-19. El Brexit, por supuesto, es el elefante en la habitaci\u00f3n; ha exacerbado las presiones sobre los precios al crear barreras comerciales y escasez de trabajadores. Tambi\u00e9n ha perjudicado al crecimiento econ\u00f3mico por otras v\u00edas, como el impacto en las exportaciones y la inversi\u00f3n.<\/p>\n

Informes de nuestra red de analistas<\/h3>\n

Kallum Pickering y Holger Schmieding, economistas s\u00e9nior y jefe de Berenberg<\/strong>, respectivamente, dijeron:<\/p>\n

\u00abDe 2013 a 2019, el Reino Unido fue una econom\u00eda de alto rendimiento a la par con Estados Unidos, a pesar de la significativa austeridad fiscal y la reconstrucci\u00f3n de los balances de los bancos, las empresas y los hogares. Pero desde el refer\u00e9ndum del Brexit en junio de 2016 y -a\u00fan m\u00e1s- desde la salida del mercado \u00fanico de la UE en enero de 2020, el Reino Unido se ha convertido en un rezagado. Mientras que el PIB de la eurozona est\u00e1 un 2,4% por encima de su nivel del cuarto trimestre de 2019 y el PIB de Estados Unidos est\u00e1 un 5,1% por encima, el PIB del Reino Unido se mantuvo alrededor de un 0,5% por debajo.\u00bb<\/em><\/p>\n

Los analistas de ING<\/strong> comentaron sobre el mercado laboral por delante:<\/p>\n

\u00abEl mercado laboral [deber\u00eda] mantenerse m\u00e1s resistente que en recesiones pasadas. Con una recesi\u00f3n en ciernes, es dif\u00edcil ver c\u00f3mo el mercado laboral puede mantenerse tan ajustado. Una tasa de desempleo del 3,5% parece un m\u00ednimo. Del mismo modo, la escasez de trabajadores est\u00e1 resultando mucho m\u00e1s persistente de lo esperado y hasta ahora hay pocos signos de debilidad manifiesta, aparte de una modesta reducci\u00f3n del n\u00famero de vacantes.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Los peri\u00f3dicos de todo el mundo lo expresan en t\u00e9rminos diferentes. \u00abGran Breta\u00f1a est\u00e1 a punto de convertirse en un caso perdido\u00ab, lamentaba The Telegraph. El New York Times lo describ\u00eda como \u00abun cuento con moraleja sobre la autodestrucci\u00f3n del Reino Unido\u00ab. El FMI pronostic\u00f3 recientemente que la econom\u00eda brit\u00e1nica se contraer\u00eda un 0,6% en<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":7,"featured_media":26666,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"editor_notices":[],"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[1695,1768],"class_list":["post-50491","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-uncategorized","tag-gdp","tag-major-economies"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nPerspectivas econ\u00f3micas de Gran Breta\u00f1a para 2023 - FocusEconomics [ES] %<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"The IMF recently forecast the UK economy to contract 0.6% in 2023. That would not just be worse than all other G7 economies. 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