{"id":51298,"date":"2023-04-13T08:27:11","date_gmt":"2023-04-13T08:27:11","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/focus.s.nomatter.dev\/blog\/what-are-the-prospects-for-global-inflation-copy"},"modified":"2023-05-30T11:21:54","modified_gmt":"2023-05-30T11:21:54","slug":"whats-the-outlook-for-the-russia-ukraine-war","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/focus.s.nomatter.dev\/es\/blog\/whats-the-outlook-for-the-russia-ukraine-war\/","title":{"rendered":"\u00bfQu\u00e9 perspectivas hay para la guerra entre Rusia y Ucrania?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n\n\n\n
Suerte cambiante: En v\u00edsperas de la guerra, hace poco m\u00e1s de un a\u00f1o, nuestras previsiones de consenso eran que Ucrania y Rusia registrar\u00edan un crecimiento del PIB del 3,4% y el 2,6%, respectivamente, en 2022. Hoy, la situaci\u00f3n es bastante diferente. Es probable que la econom\u00eda ucraniana se contrajera aproximadamente un tercio el a\u00f1o pasado, debido a los da\u00f1os sufridos por las infraestructuras, la interrupci\u00f3n de las exportaciones, el desplome de la inversi\u00f3n y la migraci\u00f3n masiva. El PIB de Rusia tambi\u00e9n se contrajo, aunque menos de lo previsto, al romperse los lazos comerciales con Europa y Estados Unidos.<\/p>\n

No hay soluci\u00f3n r\u00e1pida:<\/strong> Nuestros panelistas tienen poca fe en una r\u00e1pida resoluci\u00f3n del conflicto: en una reciente encuesta especial que realizamos, la gran mayor\u00eda -89% de los 28 analistas encuestados<\/a>– no esperaba que la guerra terminara en 2023. Con Zelensky cada vez m\u00e1s respaldado por el poder\u00edo militar de Occidente y Putin deseoso de tener algo que mostrar por su invasi\u00f3n, ninguno de los dos l\u00edderes parece dispuesto a dar marcha atr\u00e1s.<\/p>\n

\"Variation<\/p>\n

Riesgos militares:<\/strong> Predecir la evoluci\u00f3n del conflicto conlleva una gran incertidumbre. Riesgos como un aumento del apoyo militar de la OTAN a Ucrania, la venta de armas chinas a Rusia, la destituci\u00f3n de Putin y\/o Zelensky, la implicaci\u00f3n de Bielorrusia en la guerra y la volatilidad de los precios de la energ\u00eda tienen el potencial de inclinar la balanza de la guerra en una u otra direcci\u00f3n. Pero a corto plazo, el estancamiento sigue siendo el escenario m\u00e1s probable.<\/p>\n

Crecimiento bajo o nulo:<\/strong> Esta sombr\u00eda visi\u00f3n del escenario militar explica nuestras previsiones igualmente pesimistas para las econom\u00edas de Rusia y Ucrania. La UE prohibi\u00f3 las importaciones de crudo ruso en diciembre y de derivados del petr\u00f3leo a partir de febrero, mientras que el G7 ha anunciado recientemente topes de precios a las exportaciones energ\u00e9ticas rusas. Ucrania experimentar\u00e1 un crecimiento, pero \u00e9ste reflejar\u00e1 en gran medida la baja base de comparaci\u00f3n: la econom\u00eda seguir\u00e1 estando muy por debajo de su tama\u00f1o anterior a la guerra, y ser\u00e1 imposible un repunte significativo de la producci\u00f3n hasta que disminuya la intensidad de los combates. Las condiciones econ\u00f3micas anteriores a la guerra no volver\u00e1n a darse en ninguno de los dos pa\u00edses durante a\u00f1os, o incluso d\u00e9cadas.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

Informes de nuestra red de analistas<\/h3>\n

Sobre la guerra, Mark McNamee, director de FrontierView<\/strong>, dijo:<\/p>\n

\u00abEs improbable que la guerra termine hasta el colapso del r\u00e9gimen de Zelenskiy en Kiev o del r\u00e9gimen de Putin en Mosc\u00fa. A d\u00eda de hoy, ninguna de las dos cosas parece probable, a menos que se produzca una ofensiva de gran envergadura por cualquiera de los dos bandos esta primavera\u00bb.<\/em><\/p>\n

En cuanto a las perspectivas econ\u00f3micas de Rusia, los analistas de Berenberg<\/strong> afirman:<\/p>\n

\u00abTras haber iniciado una guerra brutal, Putin no tiene una salida f\u00e1cil. Ucrania y el mundo libre le est\u00e1n plantando cara. Los gastos de la guerra, el lento veneno de las sanciones, la huida de parte de la \u00e9lite urbana y los crecientes costes de la represi\u00f3n ser\u00e1n un lastre cada vez mayor para Rusia mientras Putin siga en el poder\u00bb.<\/em><\/p>\n

 <\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

\"Ukrainian<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Suerte cambiante: En v\u00edsperas de la guerra, hace poco m\u00e1s de un a\u00f1o, nuestras previsiones de consenso eran que Ucrania y Rusia registrar\u00edan un crecimiento del PIB del 3,4% y el 2,6%, respectivamente, en 2022. Hoy, la situaci\u00f3n es bastante diferente. Es probable que la econom\u00eda ucraniana se contrajera aproximadamente un tercio el a\u00f1o pasado,<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":7,"featured_media":51300,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"editor_notices":[],"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[1695,1740,1749],"class_list":["post-51298","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-uncategorized","tag-gdp","tag-russia","tag-ukraine"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\n\u00bfQu\u00e9 perspectivas hay para la guerra entre Rusia y Ucrania? - FocusEconomics [ES]<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"In our latest insight piece, we look at the likely evolution of the Russia-Ukraine war and how the economies concerned will fare .\" class=\"yoast-seo-meta-tag\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, nofollow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"es_ES\" class=\"yoast-seo-meta-tag\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" class=\"yoast-seo-meta-tag\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"\u00bfQu\u00e9 perspectivas hay para la guerra entre Rusia y Ucrania?\" class=\"yoast-seo-meta-tag\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"In our latest insight piece, we look at the likely evolution of the Russia-Ukraine war and how the economies concerned will fare .\" class=\"yoast-seo-meta-tag\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/focus.s.nomatter.dev\/es\/blog\/whats-the-outlook-for-the-russia-ukraine-war\/\" class=\"yoast-seo-meta-tag\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"FocusEconomics [ES]\" class=\"yoast-seo-meta-tag\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/FocusEconomics\" class=\"yoast-seo-meta-tag\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2023-04-13T08:27:11+00:00\" class=\"yoast-seo-meta-tag\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2023-05-30T11:21:54+00:00\" class=\"yoast-seo-meta-tag\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/focus.nm-img.net\/uploads\/sites\/5\/2023\/03\/Ukraine-Image-scaled-e1678364441252.jpg\" class=\"yoast-seo-meta-tag\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1000\" class=\"yoast-seo-meta-tag\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"667\" class=\"yoast-seo-meta-tag\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" class=\"yoast-seo-meta-tag\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Sibel A\u011flamaz\" class=\"yoast-seo-meta-tag\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" class=\"yoast-seo-meta-tag\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:creator\" content=\"@FocusEconomics\" class=\"yoast-seo-meta-tag\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@FocusEconomics\" class=\"yoast-seo-meta-tag\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Escrito por\" class=\"yoast-seo-meta-tag\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Sibel A\u011flamaz\" class=\"yoast-seo-meta-tag\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Tiempo de lectura\" class=\"yoast-seo-meta-tag\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"3 minutos\" class=\"yoast-seo-meta-tag\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/focus.s.nomatter.dev\/es\/blog\/whats-the-outlook-for-the-russia-ukraine-war\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/focus.s.nomatter.dev\/es\/blog\/whats-the-outlook-for-the-russia-ukraine-war\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Sibel A\u011flamaz\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/focus.s.nomatter.dev\/es\/#\/schema\/person\/74ccc4de3a3df5da86a5bd7d82f542bc\"},\"headline\":\"\u00bfQu\u00e9 perspectivas hay para la guerra entre Rusia y Ucrania?\",\"datePublished\":\"2023-04-13T08:27:11+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2023-05-30T11:21:54+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/focus.s.nomatter.dev\/es\/blog\/whats-the-outlook-for-the-russia-ukraine-war\/\"},\"wordCount\":572,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/focus.s.nomatter.dev\/es\/#organization\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/focus.s.nomatter.dev\/es\/blog\/whats-the-outlook-for-the-russia-ukraine-war\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\/\/focus-stg.nm-img.net\/uploads\/sites\/5\/2023\/03\/Ukraine-Image-scaled-e1678364441252.jpg\",\"keywords\":[\"GDP\",\"Russia\",\"Ukraine\"],\"articleSection\":[\"Uncategorized\"],\"inLanguage\":\"es\"},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/focus.s.nomatter.dev\/es\/blog\/whats-the-outlook-for-the-russia-ukraine-war\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/focus.s.nomatter.dev\/es\/blog\/whats-the-outlook-for-the-russia-ukraine-war\/\",\"name\":\"\u00bfQu\u00e9 perspectivas hay para la guerra entre Rusia y Ucrania? 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