{"id":51526,"date":"2023-04-05T09:02:36","date_gmt":"2023-04-05T09:02:36","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/focus.s.nomatter.dev\/blog\/whats-the-outlook-for-the-russia-ukraine-war-copy"},"modified":"2023-07-12T00:22:47","modified_gmt":"2023-07-12T00:22:47","slug":"how-will-emerging-market-economies-perform-this-year","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/focus.s.nomatter.dev\/es\/blog\/how-will-emerging-market-economies-perform-this-year\/","title":{"rendered":"\u00bfC\u00f3mo se comportar\u00e1n este a\u00f1o las econom\u00edas de mercado emergentes?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n\n\n\n
Hacia el Este<\/strong><\/p>\n

Como ha sucedido en las \u00faltimas d\u00e9cadas, nuestro consenso es que las econom\u00edas asi\u00e1ticas registren este a\u00f1o el crecimiento m\u00e1s r\u00e1pido con diferencia entre los mercados emergentes. La demograf\u00eda favorable, la relativa estabilidad institucional, las elevadas tasas de ahorro y la apertura al comercio mundial pueden contribuir a explicar el excepcionalismo asi\u00e1tico. Entre las econom\u00edas de la regi\u00f3n, se espera que Bangladesh<\/a>, India<\/a> y Vietnam<\/a> obtengan los mejores resultados, mientras que China deber\u00eda crecer en torno al 5% gracias a la supresi\u00f3n de las restricciones de Covid-19.<\/p>\n

\u00c1frica en alza<\/strong><\/p>\n

El \u00c1frica Subsahariana (ASS) ser\u00e1 probablemente la segunda regi\u00f3n del mundo con mayor crecimiento. Y si se excluyen las lentas econom\u00edas de Sud\u00e1frica<\/a> y Nigeria<\/a>, el crecimiento ser\u00eda superior al 4%, comparable al de Asia. El r\u00e1pido crecimiento de la poblaci\u00f3n del ASS, la elevada demanda de sus productos b\u00e1sicos -muchos de los cuales son esenciales para la transici\u00f3n ecol\u00f3gica- y las mejoras graduales de la gobernanza respaldan estas perspectivas. Sin embargo, la dependencia del sector primario deja al continente a merced de las fluctuaciones de los precios de las materias primas y de los fen\u00f3menos meteorol\u00f3gicos extremos.<\/p>\n

\"Real
Crecimiento real del PIB en 2023 para los mercados emergentes<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

En medio del camino<\/h3>\n

El consenso entre nuestros panelistas es que Oriente Medio y el Norte de \u00c1frica registrar\u00e1n un crecimiento de aproximadamente el 3% este a\u00f1o, una ralentizaci\u00f3n con respecto al a\u00f1o pasado debido al estancamiento de la producci\u00f3n petrolera de la regi\u00f3n y a la ca\u00edda de los precios del petr\u00f3leo. No obstante, las reformas econ\u00f3micas encaminadas a diversificar la econom\u00eda sin depender del petr\u00f3leo apoyar\u00e1n el crecimiento de los exportadores de energ\u00eda, siendo los EAU<\/a> el l\u00edder indiscutible en este frente. Las recientes mejoras en las relaciones intrarregionales tambi\u00e9n son un buen augurio, aunque el nuevo gobierno de derechas de Israel<\/a> corre el riesgo de deshacer parte del acercamiento del pa\u00eds a los Estados \u00e1rabes.<\/p>\n

Am\u00e9rica Latina, rezagada<\/strong><\/p>\n

Seg\u00fan nuestros panelistas, se prev\u00e9 que Am\u00e9rica Latina crezca un m\u00edsero 1,0% este a\u00f1o. Los bancos centrales de la regi\u00f3n han sido los m\u00e1s agresivos del mundo en los \u00faltimos 18 meses, con tipos de inter\u00e9s de dos d\u00edgitos en muchos pa\u00edses. Adem\u00e1s, la inversi\u00f3n se ver\u00e1 afectada por la incertidumbre sociopol\u00edtica, ya sea en forma de disturbios en Per\u00fa<\/a> tras la detenci\u00f3n del ex presidente Castillo, la falta de claridad sobre la nueva constituci\u00f3n de Chile<\/a> o la preocupaci\u00f3n de los inversores por la pol\u00edtica fiscal en Brasil<\/a> bajo Lula.<\/p>\n

Cicatrices de batalla<\/strong><\/p>\n

Europa del Este ser\u00e1 la regi\u00f3n de mercados emergentes con peores resultados, en gran parte debido a las contracciones previstas en Rusia<\/a> y Bielorrusia<\/a> a medida que se endurezcan las sanciones occidentales. Otras econom\u00edas de Europa del Este sufrir\u00e1n las consecuencias del deterioro de los lazos comerciales con Rusia, la elevada inflaci\u00f3n y el endurecimiento de la pol\u00edtica monetaria.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

Informes de nuestra red de analistas<\/h3>\n

Sobre \u00c1frica, el Banco Africano de Desarrollo<\/strong> afirm\u00f3
\n\u00abLa capacidad de recuperaci\u00f3n econ\u00f3mica de los pa\u00edses africanos a corto y medio plazo se presenta con un cauto optimismo, dada la considerable incertidumbre mundial. Los riesgos de impago de la deuda podr\u00edan aumentar en algunos pa\u00edses africanos, dada la ya elevada acumulaci\u00f3n y el cambio de estructura de la deuda p\u00fablica en la \u00faltima d\u00e9cada, las presiones financieras adicionales creadas por la apreciaci\u00f3n del d\u00f3lar estadounidense y el endurecimiento de las condiciones monetarias a escala mundial. La elevada dependencia de las exportaciones de productos primarios con escaso valor a\u00f1adido podr\u00eda retrasar la transformaci\u00f3n estructural que presenta la transici\u00f3n ecol\u00f3gica. Adem\u00e1s, podr\u00edan aumentar los riesgos pol\u00edticos en 30 pa\u00edses africanos\u00bb.<\/em><\/p>\n

En cuanto a China, los analistas de Goldman Sachs<\/strong> se\u00f1alaron:
\n\u00abLa r\u00e1pida mejora de la movilidad interna y los s\u00f3lidos datos de actividad de enero-febrero sugieren que la recuperaci\u00f3n de China tras la reapertura parece m\u00e1s s\u00f3lida que nuestras expectativas anteriores, gracias sobre todo al adelanto del impulso de reapertura y al apoyo fiscal. Sin embargo, esto tambi\u00e9n deja menos impulso de reapertura para 2024 y aumenta ligeramente el riesgo de una normalizaci\u00f3n m\u00e1s temprana de la pol\u00edtica a finales de este a\u00f1o que nuestra l\u00ednea de base anterior. Por ello, revisamos al alza nuestra previsi\u00f3n de crecimiento del PIB para el 1T\u00bb.<\/em><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Hacia el Este Como ha sucedido en las \u00faltimas d\u00e9cadas, nuestro consenso es que las econom\u00edas asi\u00e1ticas registren este a\u00f1o el crecimiento m\u00e1s r\u00e1pido con diferencia entre los mercados emergentes. La demograf\u00eda favorable, la relativa estabilidad institucional, las elevadas tasas de ahorro y la apertura al comercio mundial pueden contribuir a explicar el excepcionalismo asi\u00e1tico.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":7,"featured_media":48892,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"editor_notices":[],"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[1695,1769],"class_list":["post-51526","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-uncategorized","tag-gdp","tag-emerging-markets"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\n\u00bfC\u00f3mo se comportar\u00e1n este a\u00f1o las econom\u00edas de mercado emergentes? - FocusEconomics [ES]<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"We look at the economic outlook for emerging markets this year, with forecasts for Brazil, China, India, Mexico, Russia and more.\" class=\"yoast-seo-meta-tag\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" 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