{"id":85475,"date":"2023-05-29T09:07:18","date_gmt":"2023-05-29T09:07:18","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/focus.s.nomatter.dev\/es\/?p=85475"},"modified":"2023-06-27T08:15:53","modified_gmt":"2023-06-27T08:15:53","slug":"when-will-asias-export-downturn-bottom-out","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/focus.s.nomatter.dev\/es\/blog\/when-will-asias-export-downturn-bottom-out\/","title":{"rendered":"\u00bfCu\u00e1ndo tocar\u00e1 fondo la ca\u00edda de las exportaciones asi\u00e1ticas?"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

Descensos de dos d\u00edgitos:<\/h2>\n

Las exportaciones de mercanc\u00edas llevan meses contray\u00e9ndose en varias econom\u00edas asi\u00e1ticas. Los pa\u00edses con grandes sectores electr\u00f3nicos se han visto especialmente afectados: En el primer trimestre, las exportaciones cayeron un 12% interanual en Corea, un 16% en Singapur, un 18% en Hong Kong y un 19% en Taiw\u00e1n.<\/p>\n

Una tormenta perfecta:<\/h2>\n

La desaceleraci\u00f3n se debe a la tibia demanda china de importaciones, las subidas de tipos en las econom\u00edas desarrolladas, un giro mundial hacia el gasto en servicios y la reducci\u00f3n de la demanda de trabajo desde casa ahora que la pandemia ha quedado en el pasado. Adem\u00e1s, el exceso de oferta est\u00e1 afectando a los precios en el mercado de semiconductores, mientras que los exportadores de materias primas, como Indonesia y Malasia, est\u00e1n viendo bajar los precios del crudo y el aceite de palma. Estos factores se ven contrarrestados en parte por la mayor demanda de electr\u00f3nica del sector del autom\u00f3vil, debido al aumento de las ventas de coches el\u00e9ctricos y a la creciente complejidad tecnol\u00f3gica de los veh\u00edculos.<\/p>\n

Perspectivas d\u00e9biles a corto plazo:<\/h2>\n

El consenso entre nuestros panelistas es de una contracci\u00f3n media del 2,5% en las exportaciones de bienes de Asia-Pac\u00edfico en 2023, seguida de un peque\u00f1o repunte en 2024. En el segundo semestre de 2023, ya deber\u00eda haber algunos signos de mejora, y las principales econom\u00edas volver\u00e1n a registrar un crecimiento interanual en el cuarto trimestre. Los riesgos parecen sesgados a la baja, dada la recuperaci\u00f3n sorprendentemente lenta de la demanda china de importaciones en lo que va de a\u00f1o.<\/p>\n

Retos y oportunidades a largo plazo:<\/h2>\n

Los esfuerzos de EE.UU. por deslocalizar la producci\u00f3n manufacturera se han acelerado bajo el mandato de Biden, y la UE tambi\u00e9n pretende impulsar su autonom\u00eda estrat\u00e9gica. El resultado es que el 20% de la carga procedente de Asia podr\u00eda trasladarse a mercados m\u00e1s cercanos a los clientes finales en 2025, seg\u00fan un reciente estudio de Deloitte, proporci\u00f3n que podr\u00eda aumentar al 40% en 2030. La deslocalizaci\u00f3n cercana ser\u00eda una mala noticia para los exportadores de mercanc\u00edas asi\u00e1ticos, que dependen de las ventas a los mercados occidentales. Por otro lado, la actual migraci\u00f3n de la actividad manufacturera de China a la regi\u00f3n en general es una oportunidad para otras econom\u00edas asi\u00e1ticas.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

\n
\n

<\/h2>\n

Informes de Nuestra Red de Analistas<\/strong><\/h2>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

En cuanto a la demanda china, los analistas de EIU<\/strong> afirmaron:
\n\u00abLos beneficios de la reapertura de China ser\u00e1n menos evidentes para los productores asi\u00e1ticos de materias primas. […] Esto refleja nuestra previsi\u00f3n de un entorno de inversi\u00f3n a\u00fan tibio en China este a\u00f1o\u00bb. Los mercados tambi\u00e9n parecen haber adoptado este punto de vista, ya que los precios de las materias primas sensibles a la demanda china, como el crudo, el gas y el mineral de hierro, han retrocedido despu\u00e9s de haber subido inicialmente al conocerse la reapertura de China\u00bb.<\/em><\/p>\n

En cuanto a las exportaciones y las perspectivas, los analistas de Nomura<\/strong> se\u00f1alaron:
\n\u00abLa ca\u00edda de las exportaciones asi\u00e1ticas dura ya m\u00e1s de un a\u00f1o. Por tipo de producto, las exportaciones de semiconductores y electr\u00f3nica, productos qu\u00edmicos y maquinaria el\u00e9ctrica se han desplomado […]. Por destinos, las exportaciones a China son las que m\u00e1s se han debilitado, seguidas de las de EE.UU. y la UE, mientras que las exportaciones a la ASEAN y al resto del mundo se han mantenido. Nuestra opini\u00f3n desde hace alg\u00fan tiempo es que el segundo trimestre marcar\u00eda el punto m\u00e1s bajo del ciclo descendente de las exportaciones asi\u00e1ticas. Los datos de alta frecuencia muestran que las exportaciones asi\u00e1ticas est\u00e1n tocando fondo. El 2T ser\u00e1 probablemente peor que el 1T (de media), pero deber\u00eda marcar el fondo del ciclo\u00bb.<\/em><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

En las \u00faltimas d\u00e9cadas, el impacto de China en el crecimiento mundial no ha mostrado signos de disminuir; esto fue especialmente evidente en los a\u00f1os posteriores a la crisis financiera mundial. De hecho, la influencia del pa\u00eds en Am\u00e9rica Latina es cada a\u00f1o mayor, y esto se debe principalmente a tres factores principales.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":7,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"editor_notices":[],"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[1695,1745,1770],"class_list":["post-85475","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized","tag-gdp","tag-asia","tag-exports"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\n\u00bfCu\u00e1ndo tocar\u00e1 fondo la ca\u00edda de las exportaciones asi\u00e1ticas? - FocusEconomics [ES]<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, nofollow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"es_ES\" class=\"yoast-seo-meta-tag\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" class=\"yoast-seo-meta-tag\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"\u00bfCu\u00e1ndo tocar\u00e1 fondo la ca\u00edda de las exportaciones asi\u00e1ticas?\" class=\"yoast-seo-meta-tag\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"En las \u00faltimas d\u00e9cadas, el impacto de China en el crecimiento mundial no ha mostrado signos de disminuir; esto fue especialmente evidente en los a\u00f1os posteriores a la crisis financiera mundial. 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