Angola: Angolan oil production edges down in March
Latest reading: Brent crude oil prices averaged USD 71.74 per barrel in March, down 4.5% from February. On 31 March, the commodity traded at USD 74.78 per barrel, up 1.7% from 28 February. Concerns regarding U.S. tariffs dented oil prices for the second successive month.
On the production front, Angolan oil output inched down to 1.04 million barrels per day (mbpd) in March from February’s 1.05 mbpd, underperforming the 1.09 mbpd that had been expected by the national oil firm ANPG. The reading also moved further below the 2015–2024 average of 1.39 mbpd.
Outlook: Crude output should ramp up by December, and our panel sees it averaging at a five-year high in 2025 as a whole. Rising investor interest in Angola’s hydrocarbons sector since the country’s exit from OPEC in late 2023 will provide key tailwinds: This year, new TotalEnergies projects and rising capacity at the Begonia refinery should boost production. Moreover, government efforts to revamp the energy sector through the implementation of its 2020–2025 Hydrogen Exploration strategy will add impetus. Still, oil output should remain below its past-decade average through our forecast horizon in 2029, dented by maturing oil fields. Weaker-than-expected demand from China is a downside risk.
Panelist insight: Oxford Economics’ Gerrit van Rooyen commented:
“Oil production recovered strongly last year following large maintenance at an oil field in 2023. We anticipate TotalEnergies will add two new oil projects in 2025, which will offset some losses from maturing oil wells. Nevertheless, we project crude oil output to grow at a more moderate pace of 1.0%, compared with 4.1% in 2024.”