Central America and Caribbean Economic Outlook
Our panelists see CENAM’s GDP growth this year near 2025’s pace following recent forecast downgrades amid the Iran war. El Niño’s arrival in June will likely weigh further on regional GDP growth in the remainder of the year. Still, a pickup in goods exports plus resilient growth in private spending, public consumption and investment should sustain momentum.
Central America and Caribbean Inflation
In June, inflation remained above its levels at the start of the year in most regional economies amid persistent spikes in energy costs due to the Iran war. Regional inflation should average above 2025 levels in 2026, fueled by the Iran energy crisis, with El Niño’s onset likely to fan price pressures further in H2 2026. A severe El Niño is an upside risk.
This chart displays Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) for Central America and Caribbean from 2010 to 2025.
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Merchandise Trade Balance (USD bn) | -39.2 | -61.2 | -66.6 | -62.7 | -63.5 |
| Current Account Balance (% of GDP) | -1.1 | -1.8 | -0.7 | 0.0 | 1.0 |
| Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) | 8.1 | 4.7 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 2.7 |
| Merchandise Exports (USD bn) | 151.4 | 171 | 167.6 | 170 | 172 |
| GDP per Capita (USD) | 6,056 | 6,702 | 7,181 | 7,603 | 7,967 |
| Public Debt (% of GDP) | 58.4 | 54.5 | 53.4 | 53.1 | 53.9 |
| Unemployment (% of active population, aop) | 8.5 | 7.0 | 5.7 | 5.8 | 6.0 |
| Policy Interest Rate (%, eop) | 2.46 | 6.38 | 5.68 | 4.96 | 4.33 |
| Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) | 6.0 | 8.6 | 7.0 | 4.7 | 2.8 |
| External Debt (% of GDP) | 67.6 | 63.5 | 63.2 | 60.1 | 60.1 |
| Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) | -4.2 | -2.6 | -3.1 | -3.4 | -2.8 |
| Fixed Investment (ann. var. %) | 17.9 | 2.5 | 25.3 | 4.9 | 4.6 |
| Private Consumption (ann. var. %) | 10.7 | 4.4 | 3.5 | 4.1 | 3.5 |
| Merchandise Imports (USD bn) | 190.6 | 233 | 234.3 | 233 | 235 |
| International Reserves (USD bn) | 80.4 | 79.3 | 86.9 | 91.0 | 110 |