Central America and Caribbean Economic Outlook
CENAM’s GDP growth should continue to outpace its prior-decade average in 2026-2027. Much of the momentum will come from the Dominican Republic, where GDP growth should roughly double from 2025, compensating for softer expansions elsewhere in the region amid the Iran war and El Niño. Recoveries in Cuba, Haiti and Jamaica next year will further support momentum.
Central America and Caribbean Inflation
In August, regional inflation rose from July and remained among the strongest since 2024. CENAM price pressures should outpace 2025 levels in 2026-2027, as the Iran war fans transport and energy costs and El Niño stokes food inflation. Weaker currencies in several countries will fuel imported price pressures. A stronger-than-expected El Niño is an upside risk.
This chart displays Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) for Central America and Caribbean from 2010 to 2026.
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Policy Interest Rate (%, eop) | 2.46 | 6.38 | 5.68 | 4.96 | 4.33 |
| Public Debt (% of GDP) | 58.4 | 54.5 | 53.4 | 53.2 | 53.7 |
| Merchandise Trade Balance (USD bn) | -39.2 | -61.2 | -63.4 | -62.6 | -63.6 |
| GDP per Capita (USD) | 6,056 | 6,702 | 7,181 | 7,604 | 7,975 |
| Current Account Balance (% of GDP) | -1.1 | -1.8 | -0.7 | -0.1 | 0.9 |
| Unemployment (% of active population, aop) | 8.5 | 7.0 | 5.7 | 5.8 | 6.0 |
| External Debt (% of GDP) | 67.6 | 63.5 | 63.2 | 59.9 | 59.7 |
| Merchandise Imports (USD bn) | 190.6 | 233 | 231 | 233 | 235 |
| Fixed Investment (ann. var. %) | 17.9 | 2.5 | 25.3 | 4.9 | 4.6 |
| Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) | 6.0 | 8.6 | 7.0 | 4.7 | 2.8 |
| International Reserves (USD bn) | 80.4 | 79.3 | 86.9 | 91.0 | 110 |
| Merchandise Exports (USD bn) | 151.4 | 171 | 167.6 | 170 | 172 |
| Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) | 8.1 | 4.7 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 2.7 |
| Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) | -4.2 | -2.6 | -3.1 | -3.4 | -2.8 |
| Private Consumption (ann. var. %) | 10.7 | 4.4 | 3.5 | 4.1 | 3.5 |