Major Economies Economic Outlook
G7 GDP growth this year will split into two camps. On one side is the U.S. economy, which should expand above 2% thanks to resilient consumer spending and tech investment. By contrast, Canada, Japan and Europe’s largest economies—which all lack the U.S.’ dynamic AI sector, loose fiscal stance and spendthrift households—are projected to grow between 0 and 1%.
Major Economies Inflation
Inflation has jumped since February in Canada, the eurozone and the U.S. due to higher energy prices, ticked up slightly in Japan as government measures muffled some of the rise in energy costs, and fallen in the UK as the regulated energy price cap was reduced. Inflation is set to exceed central banks’ 2.0% inflation targets across the G7 over 2026 as a whole.
This chart displays Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) for Major Economies from 2010 to 2025.
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current Account Balance (% of GDP) | -0.6 | -2.0 | -1.2 | -1.2 | -1.3 |
| Merchandise Trade Balance (USD bn) | -1,287 | -1,539 | -1,364 | -1,497 | -1,608 |
| Industrial Production (ann. var. %) | 5.7 | 1.3 | -0.8 | -1.5 | 1.1 |
| Merchandise Imports (USD bn) | 4,770 | 5,520 | 5,187 | 5,348 | 5,588 |
| Merchandise Exports (USD bn) | 3,481 | 3,981 | 3,823 | 3,808 | 3,980 |
| Fixed Investment (ann. var. %) | 5.7 | 2.4 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 2.5 |
| GDP per Capita (USD) | 54,336 | 55,481 | 58,500 | 60,602 | 64,118 |
| Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) | -8.6 | -4.4 | -4.8 | -4.8 | -4.4 |
| Public Debt (% of GDP) | 124 | 119 | 117 | 117 | 118 |
| International Reserves (USD bn) | 1,958 | 1,755 | 1,836 | 1,766 | 1,966 |
| Private Consumption (ann. var. %) | 6.6 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 1.9 | 1.8 |
| Unemployment (% of active population, aop) | 5.9 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 4.7 | 4.9 |
| Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) | 3.3 | 7.6 | 4.6 | 2.7 | 2.5 |
| Policy Interest Rate (%, eop) | -0.02 | 3.30 | 4.56 | 3.71 | 2.94 |
| Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) | 6.1 | 3.0 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 1.6 |