Major Economies Economic Outlook
The U.S. is forecast to grow above 2% this year and next, thanks to robust consumer spending and tech investment. Canada, Japan and Europe’s largest economies, lacking the U.S.’ dynamic AI industry and spendthrift consumers, are expected to grow around or below 1% this year. Most of these economies should then gain some steam in 2027.
Major Economies Inflation
Inflation is currently above central banks’ 2.0% targets in all G7 economies bar Japan as a result of high energy prices. Inflation is projected to stay above target for the rest of this year before declining through 2027 in line with easing energy costs and tighter monetary policy in several economies. Prolonged disruptions in the Hormuz Strait are an upside risk.
This chart displays Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) for Major Economies from 2010 to 2026.
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GDP per Capita (USD) | 54,415 | 55,524 | 58,577 | 60,786 | 64,278 |
| Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) | -8.6 | -4.4 | -4.8 | -4.8 | -4.4 |
| Merchandise Imports (USD bn) | 4,770 | 5,520 | 5,187 | 5,348 | 5,587 |
| Merchandise Exports (USD bn) | 3,481 | 3,981 | 3,823 | 3,808 | 3,980 |
| Merchandise Trade Balance (USD bn) | -1,287 | -1,539 | -1,364 | -1,497 | -1,607 |
| Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) | 6.1 | 3.0 | 1.8 | 2.0 | 1.8 |
| Industrial Production (ann. var. %) | 5.7 | 1.3 | -0.8 | -1.5 | 1.1 |
| Private Consumption (ann. var. %) | 6.6 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 1.9 | 1.8 |
| Public Debt (% of GDP) | 124 | 119 | 117 | 117 | 118 |
| International Reserves (USD bn) | 1,958 | 1,755 | 1,835 | 1,764 | 1,964 |
| Unemployment (% of active population, aop) | 5.9 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 4.7 | 4.9 |
| Policy Interest Rate (%, eop) | -0.02 | 3.30 | 4.56 | 3.70 | 2.94 |
| Fixed Investment (ann. var. %) | 5.8 | 2.4 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 3.1 |
| Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) | 3.3 | 7.6 | 4.6 | 2.7 | 2.5 |
| Current Account Balance (% of GDP) | -0.6 | -2.0 | -1.1 | -1.2 | -1.4 |