Middle East & North Africa Economic Outlook
Our panel sees MENA’s economy rebounding strongly in 2027 after this year’s war-driven contraction, led by Gulf energy producers as trade through Hormuz normalizes: Kuwait, Qatar and Iraq are each tipped for double-digit GDP growth. More diversified economies such as Egypt and Morocco should grow more steadily. A protracted U.S.-Iran standoff is the key downside risk.
Middle East & North Africa Inflation
Our panelists see MENA’s average inflation rate easing in 2027 from this year’s war-driven uptick as energy prices cool and supply chains normalize. That said, price pressures will stay extreme in Iran—where inflation hit 68.4% in September as the rial slumped—and elevated in Yemen, Lebanon and Egypt. Subsidies and USD pegs should keep Gulf inflation near 2%.
This chart displays Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) for Middle East & North Africa from 2010 to 2026.
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GDP per Capita (USD) | 8,976 | 10,567 | 10,109 | 10,341 | 10,409 |
| Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) | -2.9 | 2.4 | -1.5 | -2.4 | -4.5 |
| Merchandise Imports (USD bn) | 652 | 783 | 1,131 | 1,252 | 1,417 |
| Merchandise Exports (USD bn) | 856 | 1,215 | 1,437 | 1,484 | 1,564 |
| Money (ann. var. of M2 %) | 11.2 | 11.9 | 8.8 | 11.9 | 10.8 |
| Merchandise Trade Balance (USD bn) | 204 | 432 | 306 | 232 | 147 |
| Public Debt (% of GDP) | 51.7 | 43.6 | 43.5 | 44.8 | 48.0 |
| Industrial Production (ann. var. %) | 5.6 | 11.3 | -0.4 | -0.1 | 3.5 |
| Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) | 7.4 | 9.5 | 11.2 | 7.4 | 6.4 |
| External Debt (% of GDP) | 44.7 | 39.7 | 41.9 | 42.5 | 47.6 |
| International Reserves (USD bn) | 1,116 | 1,148 | 1,219 | 1,274 | 1,351 |
| Policy Interest Rate (%, eop) | 1.84 | 5.74 | 6.67 | 6.78 | 5.33 |
| Unemployment (% of active population, aop) | 7.0 | 6.3 | 5.8 | 5.5 | 5.2 |
| Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) | 5.0 | 7.5 | 2.2 | 2.7 | 3.6 |
| Fixed Investment (ann. var. %) | 4.5 | 15.4 | 4.8 | 7.2 | 1.8 |
| Current Account Balance (% of GDP) | 3.4 | 8.8 | 5.2 | 3.5 | 2.0 |
| Private Consumption (ann. var. %) | 5.8 | 5.3 | 8.9 | 5.2 | 3.9 |