Middle East & North Africa Economic Outlook
With the Strait of Hormuz closed for longer than expected, our panelists further downgraded their 2026 GDP growth forecasts for the region’s economy in April, with Iran, Iraq, Bahrain, Kuwait, Lebanon, Qatar and the UAE most affected. Our panel now expects the MENA economy to expand at the weakest pace in the post-pandemic era.
Middle East & North Africa Inflation
Higher commodity prices due to the war mean our panelists now see MENA’s aggregate inflation rate rising in 2026, while remaining below the 2022–2024 peaks. Iran, Lebanon and Yemen have seen some of the largest forecast hikes, reflecting their involvement in the war and dependence on commodity imports; wealthy Gulf states are less exposed due to government subsidies.
This chart displays Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) for Middle East & North Africa from 2010 to 2025.
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| External Debt (% of GDP) | 44.7 | 39.7 | 41.7 | 43.1 | 45.5 |
| GDP per Capita (USD) | 8,992 | 10,588 | 10,139 | 10,292 | 10,371 |
| Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) | -2.9 | 2.4 | -1.5 | -2.4 | -4.3 |
| Public Debt (% of GDP) | 51.9 | 43.6 | 43.7 | 45.2 | 48.8 |
| Merchandise Imports (USD bn) | 646 | 782 | 1,131 | 1,253 | 1,373 |
| Merchandise Exports (USD bn) | 850 | 1,210 | 1,438 | 1,481 | 1,513 |
| Merchandise Trade Balance (USD bn) | 204 | 428 | 307 | 228 | 139 |
| Private Consumption (ann. var. %) | 5.8 | 6.8 | 5.2 | 4.2 | 3.9 |
| Policy Interest Rate (%, eop) | 1.84 | 5.73 | 6.67 | 6.81 | 5.35 |
| Industrial Production (ann. var. %) | 5.5 | 11.4 | -0.3 | 0.2 | 3.8 |
| Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) | 7.4 | 9.5 | 11.1 | 7.5 | 6.3 |
| Fixed Investment (ann. var. %) | 5.1 | 18.6 | 2.9 | 3.5 | 2.6 |
| Current Account Balance (% of GDP) | 3.4 | 8.7 | 5.2 | 3.4 | 1.8 |
| International Reserves (USD bn) | 1,116 | 1,148 | 1,219 | 1,274 | 1,348 |
| Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) | 5.0 | 7.5 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 3.3 |
| Money (ann. var. of M2 %) | 10.3 | 11.6 | 8.4 | 11.5 | 10.4 |
| Unemployment (% of active population, aop) | 7.0 | 6.3 | 5.7 | 5.5 | 5.3 |