East Asia Economic Outlook
East Asia’s GDP growth is expected to outpace the global average in 2026, driven by booming demand for AI-related electronics, resilient tourism and buoyant stock markets. However, China’s property slump will remain a drag. Downside risks include escalating China-Taiwan tensions and an extended Iran conflict, while stronger Chinese policy stimulus offers upside.
East Asia Inflation
Since February, inflation has risen in Hong Kong, Mongolia, South Korea and Taiwan due to the Iran energy shock. In contrast, Chinese inflation has remained muted at around 1% due to soft domestic demand. Over this year as a whole, our Consensus is for inflation to average between 1.0–3.0% in all countries bar Mongolia, where it will be notably higher.
This chart displays Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) for East Asia from 2010 to 2025.
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Private Consumption (ann. var. %) | 11.7 | 1.8 | 8.9 | 4.5 | 4.1 |
| Merchandise Imports (USD bn) | 4,374 | 4,504 | 4,154 | 4,253 | 4,447 |
| Merchandise Trade Balance (USD bn) | 721 | 793 | 838 | 1,080 | 1,361 |
| GDP per Capita (USD) | 14,215 | 14,205 | 14,228 | 14,630 | 15,263 |
| Fixed Investment (ann. var. %) | 5.3 | 4.5 | 2.5 | 3.1 | 1.7 |
| Policy Interest Rate (%, eop) | 3.39 | 3.57 | 3.45 | 3.09 | 2.95 |
| Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) | 8.0 | 2.8 | 4.7 | 4.7 | 4.8 |
| Merchandise Exports (USD bn) | 5,095 | 5,297 | 4,992 | 5,332 | 5,808 |
| Public Debt (% of GDP) | 67 | 72 | 77 | 83 | 90 |
| Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) | -3.3 | -4.3 | -4.1 | -4.3 | -4.5 |
| Unemployment (% of active population, aop) | 4.9 | 5.2 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 4.8 |
| External Debt (% of GDP) | 17.3 | 16.1 | 16.1 | 15.3 | 15.1 |
| Current Account Balance (% of GDP) | 2.5 | 2.6 | 2.0 | 3.3 | 4.8 |
| Industrial Production (ann. var. %) | 9.7 | 3.2 | 3.4 | 5.8 | 6.0 |
| International Reserves (USD bn) | 4,940 | 4,712 | 4,871 | 4,875 | 5,210 |
| Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) | 1.1 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 |