Mongolia Economic Outlook
Resource-driven economy:
Mongolia’s economy is heavily dependent on mining, particularly coal, copper, and gold, which account for over 80% of its exports. The country’s vast natural resource wealth and proximity to China—a major consumer of Mongolian commodities—have fueled economic growth over the past two decades. However, this resource dependence makes Mongolia highly vulnerable to commodity price swings and external shocks.
China reliance:Mongolia's economic fortunes are closely tied to China, which absorbs over 85% of its exports. The country's infrastructure is heavily oriented toward trade with its southern neighbor, and Chinese demand for coal and copper is a key driver of GDP growth. However, this reliance poses risks, as any slowdown in China’s economy or shifts in trade policy could significantly impact Mongolia. Efforts to diversify trade partners, including deeper ties with Russia and Japan, have made limited progress.
Challenges and vulnerabilities:Mongolia's economy is highly cyclical, experiencing frequent boom-and-bust cycles due to fluctuating commodity prices and inconsistent fiscal policies. The government has struggled with high levels of external debt, which have necessitated repeated IMF bailouts. Inflation has also been a persistent issue, exacerbated by currency volatility and supply-chain disruptions. Moreover, inadequate infrastructure and logistical bottlenecks continue to limit economic diversification beyond mining.
Mongolia's economic forecasts:Mongolia’s long-term growth prospects depend on expanding infrastructure, attracting foreign investment, and developing non-mining sectors such as agriculture and tourism. While high global commodity prices can provide temporary boosts, Mongolia needs structural reforms to stabilize its economy and reduce its dependence on China. In the near term, growth will be dictated largely by global commodity demand and China’s economic trajectory.
Mongolia's Macroeconomic Analysis:
Nominal GDP of USD 23.6 billion in 2024.
GDP per capita of USD 5,796 compared to the global average of USD 10,589.
Average real GDP growth of 4.6% over the last decade.
Sector Analysis
In 2022, services accounted for 40.1% of overall GDP, manufacturing 6.9%, other industrial activity 42.8%, and agriculture 10.2%. Looking at GDP by expenditure, private consumption accounted for 47.8% of GDP in 2023, government consumption 13.3%, fixed investment 32.4%, and net exports 6.5%.International trade
In 2022, manufactured products made up 1.3% of total merchandise exports, mineral fuels 53.9%, food 1.3%, ores and metals 30.9% and agricultural raw materials 3.8%, with other categories accounting for 8.8% of the total. In the same period, manufactured products made up 63.8% of total merchandise imports, mineral fuels 22.3%, food 12.6%, ores and metals 0.8% and agricultural raw materials 0.4%, with other goods accounting for 0.1% of the total. Total exports were worth USD 14.70 billion in 2024, while total imports were USD 11.70 billion.Main Economic Indicators
Economic growthThe economy recorded average annual growth of 4.6% in the decade to 2023. To read more about GDP growth in Mongolia, go to our dedicated page.
Fiscal policy
Mongolia's fiscal deficit averaged 2.1% of GDP in the decade to 2023. Find out more on our dedicated page.
Unemployment
The unemployment rate averaged 7.9% in the decade to 2023. For more information on Mongolia's unemployment click here.
Inflation
Inflation averaged 7.3% in the decade to 2024. Go to our Mongolia inflation page for extra insight.
Monetary Policy
Mongolia's monetary policy rate ended 2024 at 10.00%, down from 12.00% a decade earlier. See our Mongolia monetary policy page for additional details.
Exchange Rate
From end-2014 to end-2024 the tugrik weakened by 44.8% vs the U.S. dollar. For more info on the tugrik, click here.
Economic situation in Mongolia
In 2025, GDP growth rose to 6.8% (2024: +5.1%), nearly doubling the prior 10-year average. Copper production skyrocketed 61% at the Oyu Tolgoi mine on investment from the Anglo-Australian company Rio Tinto, and coal output hit a fresh record high, though its growth eased significantly from 2024. Furthermore, agricultural output soared 27% following 2024’s heavy livestock losses, and manufacturing output also recovered strongly. Turning to Q1 2026, data is also upbeat. Coal production grew around 50%—the fastest pace in over two years—and growth in copper closely matched its 2025 pace—a 12-year high. In politics, in March, Parliament elected Nyam-Osoryn Uchral as prime minister. With Uchral possessing greater support in the ruling party than his predecessor, governing should be easier, with one focus the renegotiation of royalty rights for the Oyu Tolgoi mine with Rio Tinto.Mongolia Economic Forecasts
Projections out to 2035.42 indicators covered including both annual and quarterly frequencies.
Consensus Forecasts based on a panel of 12 expert analysts.
Want to get insight on the economic outlook for Mongolia in the coming years? FocusEconomics collects projections out to 2035 on 42 economic indicators for Mongolia from a panel of 12 analysts at the leading national, regional and global forecast institutions. These projections are then validated by our in-house team of economists and data analysts, and averaged to provide one Consensus Forecast you can rely on for each indicator. This means you avoid the risk of relying on out of date, biased or outlier forecasts. Our Consensus Forecasts can be visualized in whichever way best suits your needs, including via interactive online dashboards , direct data delivery and executive-style reports which combine analysts' projections with timely written analysis from our in-house team of economists on the latest developments in the Mongolia economy. To download a sample report on the Mongolia's economy, click here. To get in touch with our team for more information, fill in the form at the bottom of this page.
Mongolia Economic Indicators
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Population (million) | 3.4 | 3.4 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 3.6 |
| GDP (USD bn) | 13.3 | 15.3 | 17.1 | 20.3 | 23.8 | 25.5 |
| GDP per capita (USD) | 3,962 | 4,478 | 4,952 | 5,796 | 6,712 | 7,079 |
| GDP (MNT tn) | 37.5 | 43.6 | 53.9 | 70.4 | 80.7 | 89.5 |
| Economic Growth (Nominal GDP, ann. var. %) | -1.0 | 16.3 | 23.6 | 30.8 | 14.5 | 11.0 |
| Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) | -4.6 | 1.6 | 5.0 | 7.4 | 5.1 | 5.7 |
| Private Consumption (ann. var. %) | 2.1 | -5.9 | 8.1 | 9.7 | 13.1 | 8.8 |
| Government Consumption (ann. var. %) | 14.6 | 9.2 | 6.9 | 3.2 | 14.2 | 3.3 |
| Fixed Investment (ann. var. %) | -21.1 | 17.7 | 13.2 | 5.3 | 22.4 | 16.5 |
| Exports (G&S, ann. var. %) | -5.3 | -14.6 | 32.3 | 33.2 | 0.7 | 5.2 |
| Imports (G&S, ann. var. %) | -15.5 | 13.6 | 29.1 | 18.9 | 17.5 | 8.1 |
| Unemployment (% of active population, aop) | 6.7 | 8.3 | 6.4 | 5.3 | 5.9 | 5.3 |
| Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) | -9.2 | -3.0 | 0.7 | 2.7 | 1.4 | 1.7 |
| Public Debt (% of GDP) | 83.4 | 67.3 | 64.5 | 46.7 | 44.1 | 45.1 |
| Money (ann. var. of M2 %) | 16.2 | 13.8 | 6.5 | 24.2 | 15.5 | 10.6 |
| Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) | 3.7 | 7.4 | 15.1 | 10.4 | 6.2 | 8.6 |
| Policy Rate (%, eop) | 6.00 | 6.00 | 13.00 | 13.00 | 10.00 | - |
| Exchange Rate (MNT per USD, eop) | 2,850 | 2,849 | 3,445 | 3,411 | 3,420 | 3,592 |
| Exchange Rate (MNT per USD, aop) | 2,813 | 2,849 | 3,142 | 3,466 | 3,390 | 3,506 |
| Current Account Balance (USD bn) | -0.7 | -2.1 | -2.3 | 0.1 | -2.5 | -2.1 |
| Current Account Balance (% of GDP) | -5.1 | -13.8 | -13.5 | 0.6 | -10.4 | -8.4 |
| Merchandise Trade Balance (USD bn) | 1.8 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 4.5 | 3.1 | 4.0 |
| Merchandise Exports (USD bn) | 7.0 | 8.1 | 9.9 | 13.9 | 14.7 | 15.3 |
| Merchandise Imports (USD bn) | 5.2 | 6.8 | 8.6 | 9.4 | 11.7 | 11.3 |
| Merchandise Exports (ann. var. %) | -2.7 | 16.4 | 21.1 | 41.2 | 6.0 | 4.0 |
| Merchandise Imports (ann. var. %) | -13.1 | 29.2 | 27.4 | 8.6 | 24.6 | -2.9 |
| Foreign Direct Investment (USD bn) | 1.7 | 2.2 | 2.5 | 2.2 | 2.8 | - |
| International Reserves (USD bn) | 4.5 | 4.4 | 3.4 | 4.9 | 5.5 | 5.7 |
| International Reserves (months of imports) | 10.4 | 7.7 | 4.7 | 6.3 | 5.7 | 7.4 |
| External Debt (USD bn) | 32.6 | 35.0 | 33.7 | 35.0 | 38.0 | 38.7 |
| External Debt (% of GDP) | 245 | 229 | 197 | 172 | 160 | 153 |