ASEAN Economic Outlook
In recent weeks, our panelists have cut forecasts for 2026 GDP growth in ASEAN due to the Iran war. The region is set to expand the least in three years due to slowing growth in private spending and fixed investment, curbed by higher global commodity prices and trade disruptions. Still, the global electronics super-cycle should provide a tailwind.
ASEAN Inflation
In February, ASEAN inflation was the joint-highest in nearly two years, and available data for March suggests the uptrend continued through the end of Q1 due to spikes in global energy prices. ASEAN inflation should hit a three-year high in 2026 as a whole, with prolonged commodity price shocks and potential second-round effects posing upside risks.
This chart displays Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) for ASEAN from 2010 to 2025.
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| International Reserves (USD bn) | 1,167 | 952 | 1,047 | 1,102 | 1,192 |
| Merchandise Imports (USD bn) | 1,552 | 1,784 | 1,632 | 1,775 | 1,989 |
| Merchandise Exports (USD bn) | 1,775 | 2,044 | 1,891 | 2,009 | 2,267 |
| GDP per Capita (USD) | 5,088 | 5,460 | 5,592 | 5,811 | 6,121 |
| Policy Interest Rate (%, eop) | 2.69 | 4.55 | 4.95 | 4.86 | 3.95 |
| External Debt (% of GDP) | 90.8 | 84.3 | 86.7 | 88.5 | 88.3 |
| Merchandise Trade Balance (USD bn) | 223 | 260 | 259 | 229 | 278 |
| Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) | -4.2 | -2.7 | -2.6 | -2.7 | -2.8 |
| Public Debt (% of GDP) | 60.7 | 63.0 | 64.6 | 65.5 | 66.5 |
| Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) | 3.9 | 5.7 | 4.0 | 4.8 | 4.8 |
| Current Account Balance (% of GDP) | 2.1 | 2.1 | 3.0 | 3.1 | 3.3 |
| Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) | 2.1 | 5.0 | 4.1 | 2.8 | 2.1 |
| Fixed Investment (ann. var. %) | 6.3 | 5.0 | 3.5 | 5.0 | 5.6 |
| Private Consumption (ann. var. %) | 2.8 | 7.2 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 4.7 |
| Industrial Production (ann. var. %) | 6.5 | 5.6 | -0.5 | 4.0 | 4.3 |
| Unemployment (% of active population, aop) | 4.8 | 4.0 | 3.5 | 3.3 | 3.2 |