ASEAN Economic Outlook
The outbreak of the Iran war has weakened the outlook for ASEAN GDP growth compared to the start of the year. The region should grow the least in three years in 2026 as private spending and fixed investment decelerate amid higher global commodity prices plus trade and tourism shocks. Still, the AI upcycle should sustain demand for semiconductors, a key regional export.
ASEAN Inflation
Regional inflation hit a 35-month high in April as price pressures rose in most ASEAN members amid the Iran war. Our panelists once again raised their 2026 inflation forecasts for the region in recent weeks; ASEAN inflation should hit a three-year high and exceed its past-decade average due to higher energy costs and the El Niño weather event stoking food prices.
This chart displays Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) for ASEAN from 2010 to 2025.
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Merchandise Exports (USD bn) | 1,499 | 1,722 | 1,617 | 1,726 | 1,923 |
| Merchandise Imports (USD bn) | 1,333 | 1,514 | 1,397 | 1,500 | 1,678 |
| Merchandise Trade Balance (USD bn) | 166 | 208 | 220 | 226 | 245 |
| GDP per Capita (USD) | 5,088 | 5,460 | 5,592 | 5,811 | 6,124 |
| Public Debt (% of GDP) | 60.7 | 63.0 | 64.5 | 65.5 | 66.4 |
| International Reserves (USD bn) | 1,167 | 952 | 1,047 | 1,102 | 1,193 |
| Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) | 3.9 | 5.7 | 4.0 | 4.8 | 4.8 |
| Private Consumption (ann. var. %) | 2.8 | 7.2 | 5.0 | 5.1 | 4.7 |
| Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) | 2.1 | 5.0 | 4.1 | 2.8 | 2.0 |
| Policy Interest Rate (%, eop) | 2.69 | 4.55 | 4.95 | 4.86 | 3.95 |
| External Debt (% of GDP) | 90.8 | 84.3 | 86.7 | 88.5 | 88.3 |
| Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) | -4.2 | -2.7 | -2.6 | -2.7 | -2.8 |
| Current Account Balance (% of GDP) | 2.1 | 2.1 | 3.0 | 3.1 | 3.3 |
| Fixed Investment (ann. var. %) | 6.3 | 5.0 | 3.5 | 5.0 | 5.6 |
| Industrial Production (ann. var. %) | 6.5 | 5.6 | -0.5 | 4.0 | 4.3 |
| Unemployment (% of active population, aop) | 4.8 | 4.0 | 3.5 | 3.3 | 3.2 |