South-Eastern Europe Economic Outlook
Our panelists expect the regional economy to grow more slowly this year compared to last year, and have revised down their 2026 GDP growth forecasts over the last month—likely due to higher-than-expected inflation stemming from the Iran war. Additional U.S. tariffs and higher-for-longer energy prices pose downside risks.
South-Eastern Europe Inflation
So far this year, regional inflation has continued 2025’s three-tier profile—double digits in Turkey, high single digits in Romania and more contained elsewhere. Price pressures spiked in most economies in March due to the surge in global energy prices, a factor that will continue to buoy inflation in the near term.
This chart displays Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) for South-Eastern Europe from 2010 to 2025.
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Debt (% of GDP) | 64.4 | 54.4 | 50.3 | 45.8 | 45.0 |
| Policy Interest Rate (%, eop) | 7.48 | 6.72 | 25.77 | 29.13 | 23.87 |
| Unemployment (% of active population, aop) | 10.8 | 9.5 | 8.6 | 8.0 | 7.7 |
| Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) | 11.4 | 43.4 | 32.7 | 34.5 | 22.0 |
| Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) | -4.2 | -2.2 | -4.2 | -4.3 | -3.1 |
| Private Consumption (ann. var. %) | 11.3 | 13.2 | 3.5 | 4.3 | 3.3 |
| Fixed Investment (ann. var. %) | 7.8 | 7.2 | 8.9 | 2.2 | 6.4 |
| Industrial Production (ann. var. %) | 13.0 | 3.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 1.9 |
| Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) | 9.8 | 5.2 | 3.9 | 2.9 | 2.9 |