South-Eastern Europe Economic Outlook
The regional economy will gain steam in 2027, chiefly due to stronger momentum in Romania and Turkey: Romania will benefit from subsiding inflation and Turkey from lower interest rates plus a pre-election public spending boost. GDP growth rates in most other economies will be similar to 2026 levels. Prolonged high energy prices are a key downside risk.
South-Eastern Europe Inflation
In the year to date, inflation has averaged over 30% in Turkey, around 9% in Romania and 2.0–5.0% in most other economies. Regional price pressures have been propped up by the surge in global energy costs. Between now and end-2027, Turkish inflation will remain far higher than elsewhere, with Romanian inflation converging toward that of the remaining SEE economies.
This chart displays Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) for South-Eastern Europe from 2010 to 2026.
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Unemployment (% of active population, aop) | 10.8 | 9.5 | 8.6 | 8.0 | 7.7 |
| Fixed Investment (ann. var. %) | 7.6 | 7.3 | 8.0 | 1.0 | 7.3 |
| Industrial Production (ann. var. %) | 13.0 | 3.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 1.9 |
| Public Debt (% of GDP) | 64.4 | 54.4 | 50.3 | 45.6 | 44.6 |
| Policy Interest Rate (%, eop) | 7.48 | 6.72 | 25.76 | 29.09 | 23.85 |
| Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) | -4.2 | -2.2 | -4.3 | -4.3 | -3.1 |
| Private Consumption (ann. var. %) | 11.7 | 12.0 | 7.1 | 4.6 | 3.4 |
| Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) | 11.4 | 43.4 | 32.7 | 34.5 | 22.0 |
| Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) | 9.8 | 5.3 | 4.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 |