Serbia Economic Outlook
A rising regional economic hub:
Serbia has emerged as one of the strongest economies in the Western Balkans, benefiting from a diversified industrial base, growing IT and service sectors, and strong foreign direct investment. The country has maintained stable growth rates in recent years, supported by its strategic location, skilled labor force, and trade ties with both the EU and non-EU markets, including China and Russia.
Manufacturing and IT growth:The Serbian economy has seen strong growth in the manufacturing sector, particularly in automotive production, machinery, and electrical equipment. The IT industry has also expanded significantly, with Belgrade becoming a regional tech hub. Government incentives for startups and foreign investors in the tech sector have driven digital transformation and boosted exports of IT services.
Structural challenges and EU accession:Despite progress, Serbia faces challenges related to public debt, corruption, and the rule of law, which remain obstacles to EU membership. While the government has implemented reforms to improve the business environment, concerns over political interference in institutions persist. The country’s relationship with Kosovo remains a key geopolitical risk that affects investor sentiment.
Serbia’s economic outlook:Serbia’s economy is expected to continue growing at a solid pace, driven by investment in infrastructure, digitalization, and industrial production. Future prospects depend on maintaining macroeconomic stability, further economic liberalization, and progressing toward EU accession, which would provide access to additional funding and investment opportunities.
Serbia's Macroeconomic Analysis:
Nominal GDP of USD 89.0 billion in 2024.
GDP per capita of USD 12,276 compared to the global average of USD 10,589.
Average real GDP growth of 2.9% over the last decade.
Sector Analysis
In 2022, services accounted for 51.2% of overall GDP, manufacturing 13.5%, other industrial activity 30.1%, and agriculture 5.2%. Looking at GDP by expenditure, private consumption accounted for 67.3% of GDP in 2023, government consumption 15.9%, fixed investment 21.4%, and net exports -4.6%.International trade
In 2007, manufactured products made up 65.9% of total merchandise exports, mineral fuels 2.6%, food 18.6%, ores and metals 10.3% and agricultural raw materials 2.0%, with other categories accounting for 0.6% of the total. In the same period, manufactured products made up 69.5% of total merchandise imports, mineral fuels 17.2%, food 5.8%, ores and metals 5.9% and agricultural raw materials 1.6%, with other goods accounting for 0.0% of the total. Total exports were worth USD 30.90 billion in 2024, while total imports were USD 39.60 billion.Main Economic Indicators
Economic growthThe economy recorded average annual growth of 2.9% in the decade to 2024. To read more about GDP growth in Serbia, go to our dedicated page.
Fiscal policy
Serbia's fiscal deficit averaged 2.8% of GDP in the decade to 2023. Find out more on our dedicated page.
Unemployment
The unemployment rate averaged 13.8% in the decade to 2023. For more information on Serbia's unemployment click here.
Inflation
Inflation averaged 4.2% in the decade to 2024. Go to our Serbia inflation page for extra insight.
Monetary Policy
Serbia's monetary policy rate ended 2024 at 5.75%, down from 8.00% a decade earlier. See our Serbia monetary policy page for additional details.
Exchange Rate
From end-2014 to end-2024 the dinar weakened by 11.4% vs the U.S. dollar. For more info on the dinar, click here.
Economic situation in Serbia
According to a flash estimate, Serbia’s annual GDP growth accelerated to 3.0% in Q1 2026 from Q4’s 2.2%. Improvement was likely broad-based: Industrial production contracted at a slower pace in Q1 than in Q4, supported by the mid-January reopening of Serbia’s sole refinery and a U.S. sanctions waiver on Russian-owned oil company NIS—which supplies 80% of the Balkan country's fuel needs. Moreover, retail sales growth strengthened in Q1 vs Q4 thanks to lower inflation and a 10% average hike to the minium wage effective 1 January. That said, goods exports contracted in January amid truckers’ border blockades across the Balkans, though the figure returned to growth in February–March. In other news, on 17 April, Serbia secured a further two-month extension of the U.S. sanctions waiver for NIS, particularly important given the energy price shock linked to the U.S.-Iran war.Serbia Economic Forecasts
Projections out to 2035.55 indicators covered including both annual and quarterly frequencies.
Consensus Forecasts based on a panel of 27 expert analysts.
Want to get insight on the economic outlook for Serbia in the coming years? FocusEconomics collects projections out to 2035 on 55 economic indicators for Serbia from a panel of 27 analysts at the leading national, regional and global forecast institutions. These projections are then validated by our in-house team of economists and data analysts, and averaged to provide one Consensus Forecast you can rely on for each indicator. This means you avoid the risk of relying on out of date, biased or outlier forecasts. Our Consensus Forecasts can be visualized in whichever way best suits your needs, including via interactive online dashboards , direct data delivery and executive-style reports which combine analysts' projections with timely written analysis from our in-house team of economists on the latest developments in the Serbia economy. To download a sample report on the Serbia's economy, click here. To get in touch with our team for more information, fill in the form at the bottom of this page.
Serbia Economic Indicators
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Population (million) | 6.9 | 6.8 | 6.7 | 6.6 | 6.6 | 6.6 |
| GDP (USD bn) | 55.9 | 66.1 | 66.8 | 81.3 | 90.0 | 98.5 |
| GDP per capita (USD) | 8,101 | 9,678 | 10,020 | 12,275 | 13,672 | 15,299 |
| GDP (EUR bn) | 49.0 | 55.9 | 63.5 | 75.2 | 83.3 | 87.0 |
| GDP per capita (EUR) | 7,106 | 8,185 | 9,530 | 11,353 | 12,640 | 13,559 |
| GDP (RSD bn) | 5,764 | 6,576 | 7,460 | 8,818 | 9,748 | 10,197 |
| Economic Growth (Nominal GDP, ann. var. %) | 1.7 | 14.1 | 13.4 | 18.2 | 10.6 | 4.6 |
| Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) | -1.0 | 7.9 | 2.7 | 3.7 | 3.9 | 2.0 |
| Domestic Demand (ann. var. %) | -0.9 | 7.5 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 5.7 | 3.5 |
| Private Consumption (ann. var. %) | -2.0 | 7.6 | 3.5 | 0.5 | 5.2 | 3.0 |
| Government Consumption (ann. var. %) | 3.2 | 4.2 | 1.3 | -2.4 | 4.0 | 2.5 |
| Fixed Investment (ann. var. %) | -1.4 | 14.7 | 2.2 | 9.7 | 7.7 | 1.4 |
| Exports (G&S, ann. var. %) | -4.6 | 20.4 | 17.0 | 2.7 | 5.2 | 4.8 |
| Imports (G&S, ann. var. %) | -4.0 | 17.7 | 16.1 | -1.4 | 8.0 | 6.2 |
| Industrial Production (ann. var. %) | 0.4 | 6.1 | 1.6 | 2.4 | 2.9 | 1.0 |
| Retail Sales (ann. var. %) | 4.9 | 10.8 | 6.1 | -2.0 | 5.6 | 4.0 |
| Unemployment (% of active population, aop) | 9.7 | 11.1 | 9.6 | 9.4 | 8.6 | 8.6 |
| Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) | -7.7 | -3.9 | -3.0 | -2.1 | -2.0 | -2.8 |
| Public Debt (% of GDP) | 54.4 | 53.9 | 52.4 | 48.0 | 46.7 | 44.5 |
| Money (ann. var. of M2 %) | 30.9 | 13.8 | 6.1 | 21.6 | 17.7 | 7.0 |
| Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, eop) | 1.3 | 7.9 | 15.1 | 7.6 | 4.3 | 2.7 |
| Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) | 1.6 | 4.1 | 12.0 | 12.4 | 4.7 | 3.9 |
| Inflation (Core, ann. var. %, aop) | 1.6 | 2.2 | 7.1 | 9.3 | 5.2 | 4.6 |
| Key Policy Rate (%, eop) | 1.00 | 1.00 | 5.00 | 6.50 | 5.75 | 5.75 |
| 3-Month BELIBOR (%, eop) | 0.90 | 0.94 | 4.95 | 5.71 | 4.70 | 4.36 |
| Exchange Rate (RSD per USD, eop) | 96.08 | 103.38 | 109.95 | 106.22 | 112.42 | 99.96 |
| Exchange Rate (RSD per USD, aop) | 103.14 | 99.42 | 111.72 | 108.46 | 108.26 | 103.87 |
| Exchange Rate (RSD per EUR, eop) | 118 | 118 | 117 | 117 | 117 | 117 |
| Exchange Rate (RSD per EUR, aop) | 118 | 118 | 117 | 117 | 117 | 117 |
| Current Account Balance (EUR bn) | -1.9 | -2.2 | -4.3 | -1.8 | -4.0 | -4.5 |
| Current Account Balance (% of GDP) | -3.9 | -4.0 | -6.7 | -2.4 | -4.8 | -5.2 |
| Merchandise Trade Balance (EUR bn) | -5.2 | -6.0 | -9.5 | -6.6 | -6.9 | -7.7 |
| Merchandise Exports (EUR bn) | 16.1 | 21.0 | 27.0 | 27.9 | 29.7 | 31.3 |
| Merchandise Imports (EUR bn) | 21.3 | 27.0 | 36.4 | 34.5 | 36.7 | 39.0 |
| Merchandise Exports (ann. var. %) | -1.8 | 30.3 | 28.3 | 3.5 | 6.5 | 5.9 |
| Merchandise Imports (ann. var. %) | -3.2 | 26.7 | 34.8 | -5.1 | 6.1 | 6.5 |
| Foreign Direct Investment (EUR bn) | 2.8 | 4.0 | 4.3 | 4.5 | 5.4 | - |
| International Reserves (EUR bn) | 13.5 | 16.5 | 19.4 | 24.9 | 29.3 | 29.0 |
| International Reserves (months of imports) | 7.6 | 7.3 | 6.4 | 8.7 | 9.6 | 9.1 |
| External Debt (EUR bn) | 30.6 | 36.3 | 41.6 | 44.2 | 48.8 | 51.1 |
| External Debt (% of GDP) | 62.4 | 64.8 | 65.5 | 58.7 | 58.6 | 57.6 |