NBS holds again in April

NBS has left rates unchanged for 18 months: At its meeting on 9 April, the National Bank of Serbia (NBS) kept the key policy rate unchanged at 5.75%, where it has stood since September 2024.

Middle East conflict scuppers hopes for a cut: The NBS opted not to cut because the outbreak of the Middle East conflict pushed oil prices sharply higher over the past month and a half, adding meaningful upside risk to the inflation path. On the other hand, as inflation remains well within its 1.5–4.5% target and inflation expectations for the short- and medium-term are also within target, the Bank did not consider a hike to be warranted.

Higher-for-longer energy prices could delay or halt cuts: Our panelists have begun to raise their forecasts to account for the effects of the U.S.-Iran war: over half our panelists now foresee rates remaining on hold by the end of 2026, while several still expect policy rate cuts of 25–100 basis points from current levels. Persistently high energy prices linked to the U.S.-Iran war pose an upside risk. The next meeting is scheduled for 7 May.

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