Sub-Saharan Africa Economic Outlook
Sub-Saharan Africa GDP growth will continue to beat the world average in 2026 and 2027, driven by fast population growth, urbanization, mining projects, digitalization and investment in infrastructure. Downside risks include extreme weather events, regional conflict and the inability of domestic economies to generate enough job openings.
Sub-Saharan Africa Inflation
Regional inflation fell to a three-month low of 7.4% in July (June: 7.6%), ending a four-month streak of increases. However, in over half of the countries with data for August, inflation picked up again. Our panelists see 2026 inflation falling by less than expected before the Iran war. Still, the downward trend is expected to carry on through at least 2029.
This chart displays Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) for Sub-Saharan Africa from 2010 to 2023.
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fixed Investment (ann. var. %) | 3.9 | -4.6 | 8.2 | -1.1 | 4.7 |
| Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) | 4.7 | 4.4 | 3.9 | 3.9 | 4.2 |
| GDP per Capita (USD) | 2,184 | 2,303 | 2,015 | 1,756 | 1,944 |
| Merchandise Imports (USD bn) | 291 | 350 | 331 | 330 | 356 |
| Current Account Balance (% of GDP) | -0.5 | -1.5 | -1.8 | -0.2 | -0.1 |
| Public Debt (% of GDP) | 50.4 | 50.1 | 55.6 | 59.7 | 57.4 |
| International Reserves (USD bn) | 163 | 152 | 148 | 168 | 188 |
| Policy Interest Rate (%, eop) | 8.78 | 12.65 | 14.45 | 15.03 | 13.71 |
| Private Consumption (ann. var. %) | 4.7 | 7.0 | 2.3 | 4.3 | 4.2 |
| Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) | -4.8 | -4.2 | -3.7 | -3.6 | -3.7 |
| Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) | 11.6 | 15.5 | 14.7 | 13.2 | 9.6 |
| Merchandise Trade Balance (USD bn) | 21 | 12 | 1 | 20 | 35 |
| External Debt (% of GDP) | 37.3 | 35.4 | 40.4 | 47.0 | 44.1 |
| Merchandise Exports (USD bn) | 315 | 367 | 336 | 354 | 392 |
| Unemployment (% of active population, aop) | 16.3 | 14.7 | 15.1 | 19.3 | 18.2 |
| Industrial Production (ann. var. %) | -0.5 | 0.6 | -1.2 | - | - |