Sub-Saharan Africa Economic Outlook
2026 regional GDP growth is set to remain one of the strongest among all world regions, buttressed by strong population growth, digitalization and urbanization, plus investment in infrastructure and in mining projects that will increase output. A prolonged conflict in the Middle East and a more severe-than-anticipated El Niño are downside risks.
Sub-Saharan Africa Inflation
Regional inflation rose to an eight-month high of 7.8% in June (May: 7.5%), the fourth straight monthly acceleration. In July, inflation held steady or slowed in most countries with data. Following repeated forecasts hikes in recent months due to the Iran energy shock, our panelists see inflation falling by less this year vs 2025 than initially expected.
This chart displays Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) for Sub-Saharan Africa from 2010 to 2023.
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| International Reserves (USD bn) | 163 | 152 | 148 | 168 | 186 |
| GDP per Capita (USD) | 2,180 | 2,300 | 2,009 | 1,750 | 1,935 |
| External Debt (% of GDP) | 37.3 | 35.5 | 40.6 | 47.2 | 44.3 |
| Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) | 4.6 | 4.4 | 3.9 | 3.9 | 4.2 |
| Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) | -4.8 | -4.1 | -3.7 | -3.6 | -3.7 |
| Public Debt (% of GDP) | 50.3 | 50.0 | 55.5 | 59.5 | 57.1 |
| Policy Interest Rate (%, eop) | 10.45 | 17.85 | 17.77 | 15.69 | 14.39 |
| Fixed Investment (ann. var. %) | 4.1 | 4.5 | 0.3 | 4.0 | 2.9 |
| Merchandise Imports (USD bn) | 291 | 350 | 331 | 330 | 357 |
| Merchandise Exports (USD bn) | 315 | 367 | 336 | 354 | 392 |
| Merchandise Trade Balance (USD bn) | 21 | 12 | 1 | 20 | 33 |
| Unemployment (% of active population, aop) | 16.3 | 14.7 | 15.1 | 19.3 | 18.2 |
| Private Consumption (ann. var. %) | 13.4 | 1.3 | 0.2 | -3.0 | 5.3 |
| Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) | 11.6 | 15.5 | 15.6 | 12.7 | 9.7 |
| Current Account Balance (% of GDP) | -0.5 | -1.5 | -1.8 | -0.2 | -0.1 |
| Industrial Production (ann. var. %) | -0.5 | 0.6 | -1.2 | - | - |