Sub-Saharan Africa Economic Outlook
Our Consensus is for 2026 regional GDP growth to hover around 2025’s rate, comfortably topping the world average again. GDP growth will be supported by strong population growth, waning inflation and interest rates, plus economic reforms and fiscal consolidation buttressing investor sentiment. Extreme weather, social and political instability plus a prolonged Iran war are downside risks.
Sub-Saharan Africa Inflation
Regional inflation remained at January’s 6.6% in February; in March, the downward trend—from November 2022’s peak—is expected to have continued as inflation slowed in half of the countries with available data for the month. However, our panelists now expect inflation to fall less sharply in 2026 due to the Iran war, and may hike their forecasts further going forward.
This chart displays Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) for Sub-Saharan Africa from 2010 to 2023.
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Private Consumption (ann. var. %) | 13.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | -3.4 | 5.3 |
| Fixed Investment (ann. var. %) | 4.1 | 4.5 | 0.3 | 4.0 | 2.9 |
| External Debt (% of GDP) | 37.4 | 35.5 | 40.6 | 47.4 | 44.7 |
| GDP per Capita (USD) | 2,178 | 2,299 | 2,007 | 1,741 | 1,922 |
| Policy Interest Rate (%, eop) | 8.83 | 12.68 | 14.47 | 15.01 | 13.69 |
| Current Account Balance (% of GDP) | -0.5 | -1.5 | -1.8 | -0.2 | -0.1 |
| Merchandise Imports (USD bn) | 291 | 350 | 331 | 330 | 358 |
| Public Debt (% of GDP) | 50.4 | 50.1 | 55.5 | 59.7 | 57.4 |
| Merchandise Exports (USD bn) | 315 | 367 | 336 | 354 | 395 |
| Merchandise Trade Balance (USD bn) | 21 | 12 | 1 | 20 | 35 |
| Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) | -4.8 | -4.1 | -3.7 | -3.6 | -3.7 |
| International Reserves (USD bn) | 159 | 150 | 147 | 168 | 186 |
| Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) | 4.6 | 4.4 | 3.9 | 3.8 | 4.1 |
| Unemployment (% of active population, aop) | 29.2 | 28.9 | 27.3 | 27.4 | 26.1 |
| Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) | 11.7 | 15.2 | 15.8 | 13.0 | 9.5 |
| Industrial Production (ann. var. %) | -0.5 | 0.6 | -1.2 | - | - |