Sub-Saharan Africa Economic Outlook
Regional GDP growth this year should be second only to Asia-Pacific, with sub-Saharan Africa becoming the world’s fastest-growing region from 2027 onwards. Improving infrastructure, expanding mining output, the adoption of digital technology, a rapidly expanding labor force and urbanization will provide support. A prolonged Iran war is a downside risk.
Sub-Saharan Africa Inflation
Regional inflation jumped to 7.4% in April from 6.6% in March, marking the second straight increase following a steady downtrend that began in late 2024. Our panelists continued to hike their 2026 inflation forecasts over the last month and now see price pressures easing less sharply vs 2025 due to the ongoing Iran war.
This chart displays Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) for Sub-Saharan Africa from 2010 to 2023.
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Debt (% of GDP) | 50.4 | 50.1 | 55.5 | 59.7 | 57.4 |
| External Debt (% of GDP) | 37.4 | 35.5 | 40.6 | 47.4 | 45.0 |
| Merchandise Imports (USD bn) | 291 | 350 | 331 | 330 | 356 |
| Policy Interest Rate (%, eop) | 10.47 | 17.88 | 17.80 | 15.67 | 14.37 |
| Private Consumption (ann. var. %) | 13.4 | 1.3 | 0.2 | -3.1 | 5.4 |
| Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) | 4.6 | 4.4 | 3.9 | 3.9 | 4.1 |
| Merchandise Exports (USD bn) | 315 | 367 | 336 | 354 | 393 |
| Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) | 11.6 | 15.5 | 15.6 | 12.7 | 9.7 |
| Merchandise Trade Balance (USD bn) | 21 | 12 | 1 | 20 | 34 |
| Current Account Balance (% of GDP) | -0.5 | -1.5 | -1.8 | -0.2 | -0.1 |
| Unemployment (% of active population, aop) | 29.2 | 28.9 | 27.2 | 27.4 | 26.1 |
| GDP per Capita (USD) | 2,178 | 2,299 | 2,007 | 1,741 | 1,922 |
| Fixed Investment (ann. var. %) | 4.1 | 4.5 | 0.3 | 4.1 | 2.5 |
| International Reserves (USD bn) | 159 | 150 | 147 | 168 | 187 |
| Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) | -4.8 | -4.1 | -3.7 | -3.6 | -3.7 |
| Industrial Production (ann. var. %) | -0.5 | 0.6 | -1.2 | - | - |