Nordic Economies Economic Outlook
Aggregate GDP growth in the Nordics is seen at a joint four-year high, running slightly above the past decade average. Fixed investment growth is set to hit a five-year high amid robust defense spending, while relatively low inflation will underpin solid private consumption. A renewed closure of the Strait of Hormuz and higher U.S. tariffs are downside risks.
Nordic Economies Inflation
Aggregate inflation in the Nordics hit an eight-month high in May; consumer price growth rose in Denmark, Finland and Sweden but eased in Iceland and Norway. Despite forecast upgrades in recent months amid the Iran war, inflation is seen remaining low this year by post-pandemic standards. U.S.-Iran relations and regional monetary policy decisions are key to monitor.
This chart displays Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) for Nordic Economies from 2010 to 2019.
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) | 4.7 | 2.1 | 0.3 | 2.0 | 1.8 |
| Private Consumption (ann. var. %) | 5.4 | 3.0 | -1.3 | 1.1 | 1.8 |
| Fixed Investment (ann. var. %) | 5.9 | 0.9 | -2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| GDP per Capita (USD) | 68,073 | 68,424 | 64,793 | 66,661 | 72,001 |
| Policy Interest Rate (%, eop) | -0.04 | 2.40 | 4.14 | 3.32 | 2.44 |
| Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) | 2.5 | 7.2 | 5.9 | 2.3 | 1.8 |
| Industrial Production (ann. var. %) | 5.8 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 3.4 | 4.0 |
| Public Debt (% of GDP) | 44.6 | 40.7 | 43.1 | 46.6 | 47.2 |
| Merchandise Imports (USD bn) | 216 | 241 | 219 | 405 | 435 |
| Merchandise Exports (USD bn) | 442 | 468 | 474 | 483 | 529 |
| Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) | 3.0 | 8.9 | 4.4 | 3.2 | 2.4 |
| Unemployment (% of active population, aop) | 6.3 | 4.9 | 5.3 | 5.9 | 6.3 |
| International Reserves (USD bn) | 163 | 153 | 159 | 163 | 185 |