Nordic Economies Economic Outlook
In 2026, GDP growth is seen accelerating to a four-year high. Lower inflation and prior interest rate cuts will support private spending and fixed investment, while U.S. tariffs will keep a lid on exports of goods and services. Rising geopolitical tensions and a prolonged Middle East conflict pose downside risks.
Nordic Economies Inflation
In February, regional inflation fell for a second straight month. Price pressures eased in Denmark, Norway and Sweden, were steady in Iceland, and rose in Finland. In 2026, regional inflation is seen at a six-year low. A prolonged rise in energy prices due to the U.S.-Iran conflict is a key upside risk—panelists have already hiked their forecasts and may do so again.
This chart displays Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) for Nordic Economies from 2010 to 2019.
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industrial Production (ann. var. %) | 4.6 | 1.5 | -0.5 | 1.3 | 3.0 |
| Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) | 4.8 | 2.1 | 0.2 | 1.5 | 1.3 |
| Policy Interest Rate (%, eop) | -0.04 | 2.40 | 4.14 | 3.33 | 2.45 |
| Public Debt (% of GDP) | 44.6 | 40.7 | 43.1 | 46.6 | 47.2 |
| Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) | 3.0 | 8.9 | 4.4 | 3.2 | 2.4 |
| GDP per Capita (USD) | 68,073 | 68,424 | 64,827 | 66,179 | 71,380 |
| Private Consumption (ann. var. %) | 5.4 | 3.0 | -1.4 | 0.8 | 1.9 |
| Merchandise Exports (USD bn) | 442 | 468 | 475 | 480 | 525 |
| Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) | 2.5 | 7.2 | 5.9 | 2.3 | 1.8 |
| Fixed Investment (ann. var. %) | 5.9 | 0.9 | -2.5 | -0.3 | 0.3 |
| Unemployment (% of active population, aop) | 6.3 | 4.9 | 5.3 | 5.9 | 6.3 |
| International Reserves (USD bn) | 163 | 153 | 159 | 163 | 185 |
| Merchandise Imports (USD bn) | 216 | 241 | 219 | 218 | 236 |