Central & Eastern Europe Economic Outlook
GDP growth is set to clock a four-year high in 2026. Lower interest rates and inflation are seen supporting domestic demand, while exports should strengthen amid renewed momentum in Germany—CEE’s top trading partner. Upcoming elections are key to track, while a prolonged Middle East conflict is a downside risk.
Central & Eastern Europe Inflation
Regional inflation fell to a 20-month low in February. Our panelists have recently hiked their 2026 inflation forecasts to incorporate higher energy costs tied to the ongoing U.S.-Iran war. Still, average inflation in the region is set to fall to a joint-six-year low in 2026 amid lower food inflation. A prolonged conflict in the Middle East is an upside risk.
This chart displays Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) for Central & Eastern Europe from 2010 to 2025.
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) | -4.1 | -3.7 | -4.7 | -5.2 | -5.4 |
| Public Debt (% of GDP) | 52.3 | 49.7 | 49.7 | 52.9 | 56.0 |
| Fixed Investment (ann. var. %) | 3.9 | 3.3 | 8.7 | -0.9 | 3.7 |
| Private Consumption (ann. var. %) | 6.3 | 4.3 | -0.4 | 3.8 | 2.8 |
| Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) | 6.5 | 4.0 | 0.7 | 2.1 | 2.4 |
| Policy Interest Rate (%, eop) | 1.58 | 6.20 | 6.16 | 5.03 | 4.07 |
| Industrial Production (ann. var. %) | 11.0 | 5.5 | -2.4 | -0.6 | 0.6 |
| Unemployment (% of active population, aop) | 5.5 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 5.0 |
| Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) | 4.4 | 14.3 | 11.2 | 3.5 | 4.2 |