Central & Eastern Europe Economic Outlook
Our Consensus is for aggregate CEE GDP growth to accelerate to a five-year high in 2027. Private spending is set to gain steam amid softer inflation, and industrial output growth will accelerate, boding well for exports. Adverse weather is a downside risk, threatening agriculture, industrial activity and power supply.
Central & Eastern Europe Inflation
In September, regional inflation rose to 4.1% (August: 3.5%), after recording four consecutive monthly declines, as fuel price pressures ticked up. In 2027, CEE average inflation is seen clocking a seven-year low as the Iran war energy shock fades. That said, adverse weather and a prolonged Middle East conflict propping up energy prices pose upside risks.
This chart displays Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) for Central & Eastern Europe from 2010 to 2026.
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Debt (% of GDP) | 52.3 | 49.8 | 49.7 | 52.7 | 55.8 |
| Policy Interest Rate (%, eop) | 1.58 | 6.20 | 6.15 | 5.03 | 4.07 |
| Fixed Investment (ann. var. %) | 3.6 | 3.5 | 7.5 | -2.1 | 4.0 |
| Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) | 6.5 | 4.1 | 0.9 | 2.2 | 2.5 |
| Private Consumption (ann. var. %) | 6.7 | 4.8 | -0.3 | 3.8 | 2.9 |
| Industrial Production (ann. var. %) | 11.1 | 5.5 | -2.4 | -0.6 | 0.6 |
| Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) | -4.1 | -3.7 | -4.7 | -5.2 | -5.4 |
| Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) | 4.4 | 14.3 | 11.2 | 3.5 | 4.2 |
| Unemployment (% of active population, aop) | 5.5 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 5.0 |