Central & Eastern Europe Economic Outlook
Regional GDP growth is set to slow modestly in 2026, remaining below its prior 10-year trend as private spending loses momentum. However, stronger investment and export growth, aided by Germany’s industrial recovery, should partly offset the drag. A prolonged Middle East conflict threatens to fuel inflation, tighten monetary policy and weigh on domestic demand.
Central & Eastern Europe Inflation
In June, regional inflation fell to 3.9% (May: 4.4%) as price pressures eased across most countries. Despite recent forecast hikes tied to the global energy price shock, CEE inflation is seen posting one of its softest readings in the post-pandemic era this year, with weaker private spending outweighing upward pressure from higher energy prices and solid wage growth.
This chart displays Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) for Central & Eastern Europe from 2010 to 2025.
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Private Consumption (ann. var. %) | 6.3 | 4.3 | -0.4 | 3.9 | 2.7 |
| Fixed Investment (ann. var. %) | 3.9 | 3.3 | 8.7 | -0.9 | 3.8 |
| Industrial Production (ann. var. %) | 11.0 | 5.5 | -2.4 | -0.6 | 0.6 |
| Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) | -4.1 | -3.7 | -4.7 | -5.2 | -5.4 |
| Public Debt (% of GDP) | 52.3 | 49.7 | 49.7 | 52.9 | 56.0 |
| Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) | 6.5 | 4.0 | 0.7 | 2.1 | 2.4 |
| Policy Interest Rate (%, eop) | 1.58 | 6.20 | 6.16 | 5.03 | 4.07 |
| Unemployment (% of active population, aop) | 5.5 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 5.0 |
| Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) | 4.4 | 14.3 | 11.2 | 3.5 | 4.2 |