Angola: Economic growth picks up in the third quarter of 2025
GDP growth rises but remains subdued: Angola’s GDP increased 1.8% in annual terms in Q3, following a 1.1% expansion in the prior quarter. However, the reading came in below the 3.0% post-pandemic average for the second consecutive quarter.
On a seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter basis, economic growth flatlined in Q3, following a 0.1% contraction in the previous quarter.
Non-oil sector accelerates and oil sector posts a milder contraction: The non-oil sector GDP increased 4.6% on a year-on-year basis in Q3, following a 3.5% expansion in the previous quarter. Conversely, the oil sector GDP shrank 7.8% in Q3, following an 8.7% contraction in the previous quarter.
Relative to the prior period’s data, the reading for the services sector improved in Q3 (+6.9% in annual terms vs +5.0% in Q2). In contrast, readings worsened for the agricultural sector (+2.0% vs +2.3% in Q2) and the industrial sector (-2.0% vs -1.3% in Q2).
A rebound in construction and a faster expansion in the services sector boosted growth in the non-oil economy. Meanwhile, new projects that came online in late July provided a lift to oil output in Q3, helping soften the decline caused by structural issues such as maturing oil fields and periodic production stoppages.
Economy to gain steam next year: Our Consensus is for the economy to grow at a speedier pace in 2026 than in 2025. A recovery in oil production is expected to boost exports, while looser monetary conditions will likely support domestic demand. Still, the channeling of a large share of the government’s fiscal stimulus toward debt repayments will weigh on economic growth. Delays in structural reforms pose a downside risk, while oil prices remain key to monitor.
Panelist insight: On the outlook, EIU analysts noted:
“We also remain confident that economic growth will accelerate mildly in 2026, to 2.6%. This is contingent on oil production rising to around 1.25m b/d, which we believe will be achievable through new sources of output coming on stream. The biggest source of downside risk to our growth projection is the outlook for oil prices.”