Argentina: Economic activity falls in November
Latest reading: Economic activity fell 0.3% in annual terms in November, following a 3.2% increase in the prior month. November’s reading was the weakest since September 2024.
Relative to the previous month’s data, readings in November softened for manufacturing (-8.2% on a year-on-year basis vs -2.7% in October), construction (-2.3% vs +5.3% in October) and transport and communications (+1.8% vs +2.5% in October). In contrast, readings picked up for agriculture (+10.5% vs +3.1% in October) and hotels and restaurants (+0.3% vs -0.4% in October).
On a month-on-month basis, economic activity was down 0.3% in November, following a 0.4% decline in the prior month.
Panelist insight: On the reading and outlook, Itaú Unibanco analysts said:
“Despite the weaker activity data for 4Q25, we still forecast 4.5% GDP growth for 2025. For 2026, we expect a slowdown to 3.5%, partly due to a lower carryover. The recovery of real wages and lower interest rates should support private consumption growth this year. The investment outlook also improved following the midterm election result and the pipeline of large-scale investment projects under the RIGI program.”