Argentina: Economic activity gains steam in September
Latest reading: Economic activity was up 5.0% in annual terms in September, following a 2.5% rise in the prior month and more than double market expectations.
Relative to the prior month’s data, readings in September improved for agriculture (+0.8% in annual terms vs -1.0% in August), manufacturing (-1.0% vs -4.8% in August) and construction (+4.3% vs +1.1% in August). In contrast, readings softened for transport and communications (+2.6% vs +2.8% in August) and hotels and restaurants (+7.0% vs +7.9% in August).
In month-on-month terms, economic activity increased 0.5% in September, following an upwardly revised 0.7% rise in the prior month. The July reading was also revised from a contraction to an expansion, meaning that Argentina’s economy grew in sequential terms in Q3, contrary to expectations of a decline.
Panelist insight: On the reading and outlook, Itaú Unibanco analysts said:
“The unusually large revision to activity data lead us to add an upside risk to our 2025 GDP growth forecast of 3.8%. The national accounts data for 3Q25 to be published on December 16 will be key to confirm the rebound of activity after a temporary sequential drop in 2Q25.”