Australia: Central Bank hikes rates in February
Latest bank decision: At its February meeting, the Central Bank decided to hike the cash rate from 3.60% to 3.85%, following 75 basis points of cuts last year.
Inflation concerns motivate hike: The Bank decided to tighten its monetary stance due to the upticks in inflation and private demand in recent months, as well as the Bank’s belief that inflation would remain above the 2.0% to 3.0% target “for some time.” The latter is in line with our Consensus, which is for inflation to only return to target in the second half of 2026.
Further hikes are possible ahead: The Bank’s forward guidance was open-ended, with further monetary tightening a distinct possibility in the near term to keep inflation in check.
Panelist insight: On the outlook, Goldman Sachs analysts said:
“Looking ahead, given the degree of the hawkish pivot in the RBA’s reaction function, we now expect a 25bp increase in the policy rate in May to 4.1%yoy. However, while we expect the RBA to maintain a hawkish bias for some time, we expect a clear sequential deceleration in inflation over 1H2026 will stay the RBA’s hand beyond May.”
Nomura analysts concurred:
“We feel the need to add another 25bp rate hike to our cash rate profile, and pencil this in for May, following the release of another quarterly CPI and a fresh set of updated RBA forecasts. Comments from the governor in the press conference that the board would be “cautious” in making future policy decisions add to our thinking that a back-to-back rate hike, with another move as soon as March, is less likely.”