Belgium: Inflation ebbs in December from November
Latest reading: Harmonized consumer prices increased 2.2% on a year-on-year basis in December, following a 2.6% rise in the previous month. December’s reading was the weakest since January 2024 but remained above the ECB’s 2.0% target for the 23rd straight month. Harmonized inflation slowed to an average 3.0% in 2025 as a whole (2024: 4.3%).
Relative to the prior month’s data, in December there were milder price pressures for food and non-alcoholic beverages (+2.7% yoy vs +2.9% in November), transportation (+1.8% vs +2.1% in November), housing and utilities (+0.9% vs +3.4% in November), recreation (+3.2% vs +3.7% in November) and restaurants and hotels (+4.0% vs +4.8% in November).
Meanwhile, consumer prices were up 2.1% in annual terms in December, following a 2.4% rise in the prior month.
Lastly, harmonized consumer prices increased 0.31% in December in month-on-month terms, following a 0.26% rise in the prior month.
Outlook: Our Consensus is for harmonized inflation to ease from Q4’s average in Q1, temporarily falling below the ECB’s 2.0% target, before rebounding close to the target from Q2 through Q4. Overall in 2026, harmonized inflation is expected to decrease from 2025 on average but remain slightly higher than the euro area average, fueled by Belgium’s wage-indexation system.