Brazil: Industrial business sentiment hits a nine-month high in February
Latest reading: The seasonally adjusted industrial business confidence index published by the Getúlio Vargas Foundation (Fundação Getúlio Vargas) rose for a third month running in February, coming in at 96.7, up from January’s 96.1. February’s print was the highest since May 2025. As such, the reading moved closer to, but remained below, the 100-point threshold that separates optimistic from pessimistic sentiment among industrial firms. Firms’ sentiment was supported by inventory remaining at normal levels. That said, sentiment remained pessimistic amid a complex macroeconomic environment and elevated interest rates.
In February, industrial businesses grew less pessimistic about both the current situation (+97.4 vs +96.4 in January) and expectations for the coming months (+96.0 vs +95.7 in January).
Outlook: Industrial business sentiment averaged above that of Q4 2025 in January–February, boding well for investment in the sector, but remained in pessimistic terrain. Going forward, waning inflation and the long-awaited kickoff of the Central Bank’s monetary policy loosening cycle should support sentiment.