Brazil: Industrial business sentiment falls again in November
Latest reading: The seasonally adjusted industrial business confidence index published by the Getúlio Vargas Foundation (Fundação Getúlio Vargas) fell for a second month running in November to 89.1, down from October’s 89.8. As such, the index fell further below the 100-point threshold, signaling deeper pessimism among industrial firms.
In November, industrial firms grew more pessimistic about the current situation (+89.6 vs +94.2 in October). More positively, firms were less pessimistic about expectations for the coming months (+88.8 vs +85.4 in October). Firms’ sentiment is suffering from elevated interest rates, which are dampening domestic demand despite positive labor market conditions.
Outlook: In October–November, industrial business sentiment averaged below Q3’s level, boding ill for investment in the fourth quarter. Possible changes in U.S. tariffs on Brazilian goods will be a key factor to track.