Ethiopia Economic Outlook
One of Africa’s fastest-growing economies:
Ethiopia has been one of the fastest-growing economies globally over the past two decades, with annual GDP growth averaging around 8–10%. The government’s state-led development model has prioritized infrastructure, industrialization, and agricultural modernization. However, recent years have seen economic turbulence due to political instability, the Tigray conflict, and foreign exchange shortages.
Industrialization and infrastructure push:Ethiopia has aggressively pursued industrialization, establishing special economic zones and industrial parks to attract foreign manufacturing investment. The country has also invested heavily in transport and energy infrastructure, including the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), which aims to transform Ethiopia into a regional energy hub. The government’s import substitution strategy has led to a growing manufacturing sector, particularly in textiles and apparel.
Challenges:Political instability and debt burden: Ethiopia’s rapid economic growth has been tempered by political unrest and a rising debt burden. The Tigray war and ethnic conflicts have disrupted trade and investment, while high government spending on infrastructure has led to mounting public debt. The country faces severe foreign exchange shortages, making imports more expensive and constraining business operations. Inflation remains elevated, further straining consumer purchasing power.
Ethiopia’s economic outlook:Ethiopia’s economic growth is expected to recover as political stability improves. The government’s shift towards economic liberalization, including privatization of key sectors like telecoms and banking, could attract foreign capital. However, reducing macroeconomic imbalances, improving governance, and strengthening institutions will be critical for long-term stability. Ethiopia has strong economic potential, but realizing it depends on sustaining reforms and ensuring peace.
Ethiopia's Macroeconomic Analysis:
Nominal GDP of USD 159.7 billion in 2022.
GDP per capita of USD 1,511 compared to the global average of USD 10,589.
Average real GDP growth of 7.6% over the last decade.
Sector Analysis
In 2022, services accounted for 37.0% of overall GDP, manufacturing 4.5%, other industrial activity 22.7%, and agriculture 35.8%. Looking at GDP by expenditure, private consumption accounted for 78.9% of GDP in 2023, government consumption 6.3%, fixed investment 22.2%, and net exports -7.4%.International trade
In 2022, manufactured products made up 9.1% of total merchandise exports, mineral fuels 0.0%, food 81.5%, ores and metals 0.7% and agricultural raw materials 8.7%, with other categories accounting for 0.0% of the total. In the same period, manufactured products made up 68.4% of total merchandise imports, mineral fuels 6.4%, food 23.8%, ores and metals 1.0% and agricultural raw materials 0.5%, with other goods accounting for -0.1% of the total. Total exports were worth USD 3.50 billion in 2023, while total imports were USD 17.10 billion.Main Economic Indicators
Economic growthThe economy recorded average annual growth of 7.6% in the decade to 2022. To read more about GDP growth in Ethiopia, go to our dedicated page.
Fiscal policy
Ethiopia's fiscal deficit averaged 2.7% of GDP in the decade to 2022. Find out more on our dedicated page.
Unemployment
The unemployment rate averaged 3.0% in the decade to 2023. For more information on Ethiopia's unemployment click here.
Inflation
Inflation averaged 16.6% in the decade to 2023. Go to our Ethiopia inflation page for extra insight.
Monetary Policy
Ethiopia's monetary policy rate ended 2023 at 7.00%, down from 7.50% a decade earlier. See our Ethiopia monetary policy page for additional details.
Exchange Rate
From end-2014 to end-2024 the birr weakened by 84.1% vs the U.S. dollar. For more info on the birr, click here.
Economic situation in Ethiopia
GDP growth likely remained among Sub-Saharan Africa’s fastest for a third consecutive year in fiscal year (FY) 2024—which ended on 7 July 2025. Government spending will have been driven by high tax revenue used to boost social protection payments and hike public wages while providing temporary subsidies for fuel and fertilizer. Moreover, faster urban construction, electricity and gold output likely aided the industrial sector, while the end of the Tigray conflict will have boosted manufacturing capacity utilization. In FY 2025, economic momentum likely continues to exceed the regional average, supported by improving creditor confidence following recent progress in fiscal reforms and debt management. In other news, recent efforts to establish a functioning capital market bode well for investment and employment opportunities.Ethiopia Economic Forecasts
Projections out to 2035.39 indicators covered including both annual and quarterly frequencies.
Consensus Forecasts based on a panel of 11 expert analysts.
Want to get insight on the economic outlook for Ethiopia in the coming years? FocusEconomics collects projections out to 2035 on 39 economic indicators for Ethiopia from a panel of 11 analysts at the leading national, regional and global forecast institutions. These projections are then validated by our in-house team of economists and data analysts, and averaged to provide one Consensus Forecast you can rely on for each indicator. This means you avoid the risk of relying on out of date, biased or outlier forecasts. Our Consensus Forecasts can be visualized in whichever way best suits your needs, including via interactive online dashboards , direct data delivery and executive-style reports which combine analysts' projections with timely written analysis from our in-house team of economists on the latest developments in the Ethiopia economy. To download a sample report on the Ethiopia's economy, click here. To get in touch with our team for more information, fill in the form at the bottom of this page.