Kazakhstan: National Bank of Kazakhstan holds rates steady in November
Bank leaves rates unchanged: At its 28 November meeting, the National Bank of Kazakhstan (NBK) kept its base rate unchanged at 18.00% with a corridor of plus minus one percentage point, following a larger-than-expected 150 basis point hike in October. The hold was in line with market expectations.
High inflation and government price-moderation policies drive rate hold: A rate cut was ruled out as inflation remains high, easing only marginally in October. Additionally, the NBK raised its end-2025 and end-2026 inflation forecasts to 12.0–13.0% and 9.5%–11.5%, respectively. On the flipside, the Bank refrained from further tightening due to already-present government efforts to cool inflation through fiscal policy and reform measures.
Easing cycle to begin in Q3 2026: The NBK said it sees no room for cuts before the end of H1 2026, while warning that further tightening cannot be ruled out in the absence of sustained disinflation. As such, most of our panelists expect the first cut in Q3 2026, with a slowdown in inflation allowing interest rates to end 2026 around 200 basis points below current levels.