Lithuania Economic Outlook
A dynamic and resilient economy:
Lithuania, the largest economy among the Baltic states with a GDP of around $65 billion, has demonstrated strong growth and resilience in recent years. The country has successfully transitioned from a post-Soviet economy to a high-income, innovation-driven market. Despite global economic challenges, Lithuania’s economy has remained relatively robust, though growth slowed in 2023 due to inflation and weaker demand in key export markets.
Key industries and exports:Lithuania is a major player in manufacturing, logistics, and fintech. It has developed a strong financial technology sector, attracting startups and foreign investment due to its favorable regulatory environment. The country is also a significant exporter of chemicals, machinery, and electronics. Trade is primarily oriented toward the EU, with Germany, Poland, and the Nordic countries among its top partners. However, the loss of trade with Russia and China has required Lithuania to strengthen ties with alternative markets.
Challenges:Like its Baltic neighbors, Lithuania faces demographic challenges, with an aging population and emigration reducing the labor force. Inflation spiked to over 20% in 2022, driven by rising energy prices and supply chain disruptions, before easing in 2023. The country also faces security risks due to its proximity to Russia and Belarus, which have led to increased defense spending.
Lithuania’s economic outlook:Lithuania’s economy is expected to maintain steady growth, supported by strong exports, digital innovation, and EU funding. However, external risks—including geopolitical tensions and economic slowdowns in Europe—could impact trade and investment. To sustain long-term growth, Lithuania must address labor market challenges and further develop high-value industries such as technology and green energy.
Lithuania's Macroeconomic Analysis:
Nominal GDP of USD 84.8 billion in 2024.
GDP per capita of USD 29,330 compared to the global average of USD 10,589.
Average real GDP growth of 3.2% over the last decade.
Sector Analysis
In 2022, services accounted for 63.1% of overall GDP, manufacturing 14.2%, other industrial activity 19.7%, and agriculture 3.0%. Looking at GDP by expenditure, private consumption accounted for 58.8% of GDP in 2023, government consumption 17.7%, fixed investment 19.7%, and net exports 3.8%.International trade
In 2023, manufactured products made up 60.9% of total merchandise exports, mineral fuels 14.3%, food 18.6%, ores and metals 1.8% and agricultural raw materials 2.5%, with other categories accounting for 1.9% of the total. In the same period, manufactured products made up 61.0% of total merchandise imports, mineral fuels 19.8%, food 12.7%, ores and metals 1.4% and agricultural raw materials 2.0%, with other goods accounting for 3.1% of the total. Total exports were worth USD 39.70 billion in 2024, while total imports were USD 44.80 billion.Main Economic Indicators
Economic growthThe economy recorded average annual growth of 3.2% in the decade to 2024. To read more about GDP growth in Lithuania, go to our dedicated page.
Fiscal policy
Lithuania's fiscal deficit averaged 1.1% of GDP in the decade to 2023. Find out more on our dedicated page.
Unemployment
The unemployment rate averaged 7.6% in the decade to 2024. For more information on Lithuania's unemployment click here.
Inflation
Inflation averaged 3.9% in the decade to 2024. Go to our Lithuania inflation page for extra insight.
Monetary Policy
Euro Area monetary policy rate ended 2024 at 3.15%, up from 0.05% a decade earlier. See our Lithuania monetary policy page for additional details.
Exchange Rate
From end-2014 to end-2024 the euro weakened by 20% vs the U.S. dollar. For more info on the euro, click here.
Economic situation in Lithuania
The economy’s recent rally came to an abrupt halt in Q3: Annual GDP growth fell to 1.9% from Q2’s 3.2%, marking the joint-weakest figure since Q4 2023. The statistical office pointed to the manufacturing sector as the main culprit behind the deceleration. Growth in factory output largely came to a halt in Q3, hitting a near two-year low, and merchandise exports contracted at a steeper pace than in Q2, likely due to U.S. tariffs on EU goods. Meanwhile, services likely remained a bright spot; retail sales grew at the fastest pace so far this year, probably buoyed by stronger consumer confidence. In Q4, our panelists see GDP growth near Q3’s muted reading, as U.S. tariffs and sluggish EU economic momentum likely weigh further on industry and exports. That said, in October, sentiment in the retail and services sectors plus among consumers improved from Q3’s average, boding well for private spending.Lithuania Economic Forecasts
Projections out to 2035.48 indicators covered including both annual and quarterly frequencies.
Consensus Forecasts based on a panel of 15 expert analysts.
Want to get insight on the economic outlook for Lithuania in the coming years? FocusEconomics collects projections out to 2035 on 48 economic indicators for Lithuania from a panel of 15 analysts at the leading national, regional and global forecast institutions. These projections are then validated by our in-house team of economists and data analysts, and averaged to provide one Consensus Forecast you can rely on for each indicator. This means you avoid the risk of relying on out of date, biased or outlier forecasts. Our Consensus Forecasts can be visualized in whichever way best suits your needs, including via interactive online dashboards , direct data delivery and executive-style reports which combine analysts' projections with timely written analysis from our in-house team of economists on the latest developments in the Lithuania economy. To download a sample report on the Lithuania's economy, click here. To get in touch with our team for more information, fill in the form at the bottom of this page.