Malaysia: Merchandise trade surplus widens in December
Latest reading: In December, the trade balance was USD +4.7 billion, following a USD +1.5 billion figure in the prior month. Over the last 12 months, the trade balance summed to USD +35.6 billion.
Exports increased 20.3% in year-on-year terms in December, following 14.2% growth in the prior month. December’s reading was the strongest since April 2025 and was mainly driven by a surge in re-exports plus stronger shipments of manufactured goods, including electrical and electronic products, optical and scientific equipment, and industrial supplies. Meanwhile, imports increased 22.1% in annual terms in December, following 23.6% growth in the previous month. Over 2025 as a whole, exports increased 13.8% with respect to the previous year (2024: +5.5% yoy), beating market expectations, while imports grew 13.5% with respect to the previous year (2024: +12.8% yoy), also beating market expectations.
Outlook: Our panelists expect merchandise exports to continue growing in 2026, though at a slower pace than in the previous year. This deceleration will be driven in part by the fading of front-loading activities that boosted exports in 2025. Downside risks to exports include recently announced 25.0% U.S. tariffs on some chips, which could dampen demand for shipments from the key semiconductors sector.