Mexico: Inflation rises in February from the prior month
Latest reading: Consumer prices were up 4.0% on a year-on-year basis in February, following a 3.8% rise in the previous month. February’s reading was the strongest since June 2025 and was above market expectations.
Relative to the prior month’s data, price pressures were higher for food, beverages and tobacco in February (+5.6% on a year-on-year basis vs +4.4% in January). In contrast, there were reduced price pressures for housing (+2.7% vs +2.9% in January), transportation (+1.5% vs +1.6% in January), education and recreation (+3.9% vs +4.0% in January) and clothing, footwear and accessories (+2.7% vs +2.8% in January).
Meanwhile, core consumer prices increased 4.5% in annual terms in February, following a 4.6% rise in the previous month.
Lastly, consumer prices increased 0.50% in February in month-on-month terms, following a 0.38% rise in the previous month.
Panelist insight: On the impact of war in the Middle East, Itaú Unibanco analysts said:
“Regarding the recent geopolitical events, the impact of higher oil prices on inflation is limited, as the government provides a gasoline subsidy and has a maximum price agreement with the fuel distribution sector (24 pesos per liter). We estimate that a 10% increase in oil prices raises inflation by 0.1 pp in the next six months. Additionally, although higher oil prices affect the real exchange rate, the correlation is low and has nearly zero pass-through to inflation, especially in the context of a negative output gap.”