Mozambique Economic Forecasts, Data & Projections

Mozambique Economic Outlook

A resource-rich but fragile economy:

Mozambique has significant natural resource wealth, particularly in coal and natural gas, yet remains one of the world’s poorest countries. The discovery of vast offshore gas reserves in the Rovuma Basin has positioned the country as a future major liquefied natural gas (LNG) exporter. However, political instability, debt distress, and security challenges from an ongoing insurgency in the northern Cabo Delgado region have hindered economic development.

LNG potential and investment:

Mozambique's LNG sector has attracted multi-billion-dollar investments from global energy firms, with TotalEnergies, ExxonMobil, and Eni leading the way. The first gas production is expected in the mid-2020s, potentially transforming the country’s economic prospects. If successfully managed, LNG exports could significantly boost government revenue and foreign exchange reserves. However, delays due to security risks and global energy price volatility pose challenges.

Debt and governance challenges:

Mozambique faced a major financial crisis following the revelation of hidden government debt in 2016, which led to a default and loss of international investor confidence. The country has since been working on debt restructuring agreements and strengthening governance reforms to restore credibility. While macroeconomic stability has improved, concerns remain about public finance management and corruption.

Mozambique’s economic projections:

Mozambique’s economic growth is expected to accelerate in the coming years, driven by LNG projects, infrastructure development, and agriculture. However, security threats in Cabo Delgado, high poverty levels, and weak institutional capacity remain risks to long-term growth. Successful exploitation of natural resources, coupled with sound economic policies, could lift Mozambique into a new era of prosperity. However, failure to address governance issues may limit the benefits of resource wealth.

Mozambique's Macroeconomic Analysis:

Nominal GDP of USD 21.0 billion in 2023.

GDP per capita of USD 619 compared to the global average of USD 10,589.

Average real GDP growth of 3.6% over the last decade.

Sector Analysis

In 2022, services accounted for 40.6% of overall GDP, manufacturing 8.5%, other industrial activity 24.2%, and agriculture 26.7%. Looking at GDP by expenditure, private consumption accounted for 75.2% of GDP in 2022, government consumption 16.7%, fixed investment 38.6%, and net exports -30.5%.

International trade

In 2023, manufactured products made up 7.3% of total merchandise exports, mineral fuels 57.6%, food 10.8%, ores and metals 23.3% and agricultural raw materials 0.7%, with other categories accounting for 0.3% of the total. In the same period, manufactured products made up 59.1% of total merchandise imports, mineral fuels 21.3%, food 17.5%, ores and metals 1.2% and agricultural raw materials 0.9%, with other goods accounting for 0.0% of the total. Total exports were worth USD 8.20 billion in 2024, while total imports were USD 8.40 billion.