Nigeria: Nigerian oil production declines in April
Latest reading: Brent crude oil prices averaged USD 66.93 per barrel in April, down 6.7% from March. On 30 April, the commodity traded at USD 64.33 per barrel, down 14.0% from 31 March. Trump’s announcement of “reciprocal” tariffs weighed on the commodity.
Turning to production, Nigerian oil output fell to 1.47 million barrels per day (mbpd) in April from March’s downwardly revised 1.50 mbpd on the heels of rising vandalism in oil fields. Accordingly, output fell short of the country’s OPEC+ quota of 1.50 mbpd for the first time since October 2024.
Oil output remained under pressure in early May: Nigeria’s Trans Niger and Okordia-Rumuekpe pipelines experienced further operational disruptions, likely due to repeated vandalism. More positively, energy company ExxonMobil is reportedly set to invest USD 1.5 billion in its deepwater operations from Q2 2025 to 2027.
Outlook: Oil output is projected to increase in 2025 from 2024 to reach its highest level since 2020. Rising capacity at the Dangote refinery will buttress crude demand in Nigeria, prompting an increase in production. Nonetheless, the country is expected to fall short of its OPEC+ quota of 1.50 mbpd, hampered by the uncertain domestic regulatory environment and a precarious security situation. Further turmoil in the oil-producing Niger Delta remains a key downside risk.