Norway: Inflation moderates as expected in April
Latest reading: Inflation inched down to 2.5% in April from March’s 2.6%, in line with market expectations and undershooting those of the Norges Bank. Looking at the details of the release, the figure was primarily driven by slower growth in prices for food, which outweighed faster rises in housing and transport costs.
Accordingly, the trend pointed down, with annual average inflation falling to 2.7% in April (March: 2.8%). Meanwhile, core inflation dropped to 3.0% in April from March’s 3.4%, below both markets’ and Norges Bank’s projections.
Lastly, consumer prices rose 0.66% over the previous month in April, swinging from the 0.66% decline seen in March.
Outlook: Our Consensus is for inflation to rise from current levels on average through Q4 on healthier private spending growth, outpacing the Norges Bank’s 2.0% target for the fifth consecutive year in 2025 as a whole. Still, inflation will be below last year’s level, contained by elevated interest rates, softer wage growth and a high base of comparison. Premature monetary policy easing and a weaker krone are upside risks.