Panama: Economic activity loses momentum in November
Latest reading: Economic activity increased 4.4% in annual terms in November, following a 4.8% rise in the prior month. Reexports through the Colón Free Trade Zone declined, and banana output and seafood shipments also dropped. That said, economic activity accelerated in construction, domestic trade, hospitality and transport. The transport sector, in particular, benefited from a rebound in Panama Canal operations, reflected in higher toll revenues and net tonnage.
In month-on-month terms, economic activity fell 0.8% in November, following 5.0% growth in the prior month.
Outlook: Our panelists expect year-on-year GDP growth to moderate in Q4 from Q3 before rebounding in Q1 2026. For 2026 as a whole, GDP growth is projected to be the second-fastest in Central America, supported by strong domestic demand.
Panelist insight: On the outlook, analysts at EIU said:
“Resilient private consumption—underpinned by low inflation—together with the government’s push to accelerate infrastructure and investment projects will sustain average real GDP growth of about 4% throughout the forecast period, keeping Panama’s growth above the regional mean. We expect a modest slowdown in 2026 as the “payback” from front-loading of global trade in 2025 tempers activity across the Panama Canal-linked logistics sector. We then expect a gradual improvement in global trade dynamics in 2027–30, supporting canal throughput and related services later in the forecast period.”