Serbia: Economic growth is stable in the third quarter of 2025
GDP growth remains subdued: Serbia’s GDP increased 2.0% on a year-on-year basis in Q3, stable from the previous quarter’s downwardly revised reading and well below its post-pandemic average. In seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter terms, GDP grew 0.6% in Q3, following 1.2% growth in the prior quarter.
Domestic demand drives economic growth: Compared with the prior quarter’s data, readings in Q3 improved for private consumption (+3.4% in annual terms vs +3.1% in Q2), government consumption (+3.9% vs +3.8% in Q2) and fixed investment (-2.1% vs -3.9% in Q2). In contrast, readings worsened for exports of goods and services (+4.2% vs +5.6% in Q2) and imports of goods and services (+5.2% vs +9.7% in Q2).
NIS sanctions cloud the outlook: Our panelists expect year-on-year economic growth to remain broadly stable in Q4. However, U.S. sanctions on Russia-majority-owned oil firm NIS have led to a halt in production at the country’s sole refinery, increasing pressures on fuel supply and weighing on overall economic activity.
In 2026, GDP growth is expected to accelerate and approach its post-pandemic average. Infrastructure spending linked to Expo 2027 Belgrade—the largest international event in Serbian history—and a recovery in foreign direct investment should boost fixed investment. Still, a prolonged refinery shutdown plus persistent anti-corruption protests are key downside risks.